We are prepared to discuss, but only if Cuba makes structural change
A los noventa y cuatro años, Raúl Castro se enfrenta a una acusación penal en Estados Unidos por hechos ocurridos hace tres décadas, cuando ordenó el derribo de dos avionetas con exiliados cubanos a bordo. La maniobra, impulsada por la administración Trump desde Miami, no es simplemente un acto jurídico: es un gesto político cargado de precedentes, que recuerda la secuencia empleada contra Maduro en Venezuela antes de su caída. En un momento en que Cuba atraviesa una crisis energética y económica sin precedentes recientes, Washington parece estar usando el derecho, la diplomacia y la amenaza implícita de la fuerza como instrumentos para rediseñar el futuro político de la isla.
- La fiscalía de Miami prepara la acusación formal contra el exmandatario cubano esta misma semana, convirtiendo un episodio de 1996 en detonador de una nueva fase de presión estadounidense.
- El patrón es inquietante: cargos penales primero, intervención militar después —así ocurrió con Maduro en Venezuela, y Trump ya ha amenazado con 'tomar el control' de Cuba casi de inmediato.
- Cuba vive en la oscuridad literal: apagones prolongados, escasez de combustible y un bloqueo naval que impide la llegada de petroleros, creando el caldo de cultivo ideal para que Washington exija reformas estructurales a cambio de alivio.
- El director de la CIA, John Ratcliffe, viajó a La Habana con condiciones sobre la mesa, y se reunió con 'Raulito', el nieto de Castro, cuya creciente visibilidad pública alimenta especulaciones sobre una posible sucesión con visto bueno estadounidense.
- Los cargos contra el anciano exlíder parecen diseñados para lograr varias cosas a la vez: establecer base legal, demostrar determinación y enviar un mensaje a los posibles sucesores sobre el precio de la cooperación o la resistencia.
A los noventa y cuatro años, Raúl Castro está a punto de ser formalmente acusado en Estados Unidos por haber ordenado, en 1996 siendo ministro de Defensa, el derribo de dos avionetas tripuladas por exiliados cubanos. La fiscalía de Miami actuaría esta misma semana, según fuentes citadas por medios estadounidenses. Castro lleva años retirado de la vida política activa —dejó la presidencia en 2018 y la jefatura del Partido Comunista en 2021— pero su nombre sigue gravitando sobre la isla.
La maniobra recuerda de forma deliberada lo ocurrido en Venezuela: antes de la caída de Maduro, Washington aseguró cargos penales por narcotráfico, y luego vino la acción militar. Trump ha insinuado en semanas recientes que Estados Unidos podría 'tomar el control' de Cuba 'casi de inmediato', aunque fuentes gubernamentales aseguran al New York Times que ninguna decisión de intervención ha sido tomada, en parte porque los recursos militares están comprometidos en operaciones relacionadas con Irán.
Cuba atraviesa mientras tanto una de sus crisis más agudas: apagones que se prolongan durante horas, combustible prácticamente inexistente y un bloqueo naval estadounidense que impide la llegada de petroleros. En ese contexto llegó a La Habana el director de la CIA, John Ratcliffe, portando un mensaje de Trump: hay margen para hablar de economía y seguridad, pero solo si Cuba emprende cambios estructurales.
Durante su visita, Ratcliffe se reunió con varios interlocutores, entre ellos el nieto de Raúl Castro, también llamado Raúl y conocido como 'Raulito', quien aparece con frecuencia creciente junto al presidente Díaz-Canel. Los analistas debaten si esa visibilidad apunta a una sucesión tutelada desde Washington —como ocurrió con Delcy Rodríguez en Venezuela— o si simplemente refleja que el abuelo sigue ejerciendo influencia real a través de su círculo más cercano.
Los cargos contra el exlíder parecen perseguir varios objetivos a la vez: construir una base legal para acciones futuras, proyectar determinación y señalar a los posibles herederos del poder que la cooperación con Washington tiene su recompensa. Si todo ello desembocará en extradición, intervención o simple presión política es algo que aún nadie puede responder con certeza.
At ninety-four years old, Raúl Castro is about to face criminal charges in the United States for events that unfolded three decades ago, when he held the post of Defense Minister. The Miami prosecutor's office is expected to formally indict him as soon as this week, according to sources who spoke to American news outlets. The charges stem from 1996, when Castro allegedly ordered the destruction of two aircraft carrying Cuban exiles. It is a striking escalation of pressure from the Trump administration against the island nation.
Castro has been removed from active political life since 2021, when he relinquished leadership of the Communist Party. He had already stepped down from the presidency three years earlier, in 2018. Yet his name still carries weight in Cuban politics, and the timing of these charges—announced so publicly, with such deliberate transparency—suggests something larger at work than a simple legal proceeding.
The move echoes a pattern the Trump administration has already deployed elsewhere. When the United States moved against Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, it first secured formal criminal charges related to drug trafficking, then followed with military action that removed him from power. Trump has made similar threats toward Cuba in recent weeks, suggesting that the United States could "take control" of the island "almost immediately." Yet government sources told the New York Times that no decision to intervene militarily has been made, and any such action remains distant—partly because significant military resources are already committed to operations involving Iran.
Cuba itself is in the grip of one of its most severe crises in recent memory. Rolling blackouts stretch for hours. Fuel is nearly impossible to find. A naval blockade imposed by the United States prevents tanker ships from reaching the island, strangling its ability to resupply. Into this environment of scarcity and darkness, the CIA director, John Ratcliffe, arrived this week with a message from President Trump: the United States is prepared to discuss economic and security matters, but only if Cuba undertakes structural change.
While in Havana, Ratcliffe met with several figures, including Raúl Castro's grandson, also named Raúl—known colloquially as "Raulito." The younger man has been appearing with increasing frequency at public events and ceremonies alongside President Miguel Díaz-Canel. American analysts are uncertain what to make of this visibility. It could signal that Raulito is being groomed for a more prominent role in the country's leadership, and that he carries American approval—much as Delcy Rodríguez did in Venezuela before the regime change. Or it could indicate that the elder Raúl Castro, the grandfather, retains substantial influence over Cuba's future, with Raulito serving as his personal security detail and trusted confidant.
The criminal charges against the former president appear designed to accomplish multiple things at once: to establish legal grounds for further action, to demonstrate American resolve, and to signal to potential successors that cooperation with Washington carries rewards. Whether the charges will lead to extradition, military intervention, or simply serve as a tool of political pressure remains unclear. What is evident is that the Trump administration has chosen to turn up the heat on Cuba in ways both visible and opaque, using law, diplomacy, and the implicit threat of force to reshape the island's political future.
Citas Notables
The United States is prepared to address economic and security matters, but only if Cuba makes structural changes.— Message delivered by CIA Director John Ratcliffe in Havana
The United States could take control of Cuba almost immediately.— Donald Trump, statement made two weeks prior
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why charge him now, after thirty years? Why not in 1996 or 2000?
Because the timing serves a purpose. The charges are a signal—to Cuba's government, to potential successors, to anyone watching. They say: we have not forgotten, we have not moved on, and we are willing to act.
But he's ninety-four. He's been out of power for years. What's the practical effect?
The practical effect is less about him personally and more about the political space it opens. If you can charge a former leader, you create legal cover for deeper intervention. You also send a message to whoever might replace him.
This grandson, Raulito—is he being set up as a replacement?
That's the question everyone is asking. His visibility could mean the Americans approve of him as a successor. Or it could mean the old man still holds real power. The uncertainty itself is useful to whoever is applying the pressure.
Why was the CIA director's visit made so public?
Normally you hide those things. The fact that it was announced, that Ratcliffe's message was reported—that's intentional. It's psychological pressure. It says: we are here, we are engaged, we are watching.
And the military threat? Is that real?
The threat is real. But the resources aren't available right now. So the charges, the visits, the public statements—they're the pressure campaign while the military option stays on the table but not yet in play.