A dollar more in a single month — the largest jump AAA has ever recorded.
A war launched one month ago has done what markets rarely do so swiftly: it has rewritten the cost of daily life for millions of Americans. Since the United States and Israel began military operations against Iran on February 28th, crude oil has crossed $100 a barrel and the national gas average has surpassed $4 a gallon — the fastest single-month price rise AAA has ever measured. The Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil once flowed freely, remains blocked, and the ripple from that narrow waterway is now felt at every pump, grocery aisle, and shipping dock across the country. When a nation goes to war, the costs rarely stay on the battlefield.
- Gas hit $4.02 a gallon nationally — a dollar more than before the war began — marking the steepest monthly spike AAA has ever recorded.
- Crude oil above $100 a barrel and a blocked Strait of Hormuz are squeezing supply chains from freight and farming to cold-chain groceries, with diesel now averaging $5.45 a gallon.
- Ordinary households are already rationing — buying only what fuel they need for the day, dropping subscriptions, switching stores, and cutting personal spending just to keep the household running.
- Analysts warn the national average could climb to $4.50 or challenge the all-time $5 record if Hormuz stays closed, while emergency stockpile releases have so far failed to slow the rise.
- With midterm elections approaching, a president who campaigned on cheap energy now faces a public where nearly half of adults say they are extremely worried about affording gas — a political liability measured at every fill-up.
At a Costco pump outside Detroit, Kelly Gravlin watched her total climb to $70.73 for a tank of regular unleaded — just under four dollars a gallon. She was not happy about it, and neither is the rest of the country.
The national average crossed $4.02 on Tuesday, the first time Americans have collectively paid that much since Russia's war in Ukraine rattled oil markets in 2022. But the speed of this surge is unprecedented: before February 28th, when the United States and Israel launched operations against Iran, the average sat just under three dollars. A dollar-plus jump in a single month is the largest AAA has ever recorded.
The cause is crude oil, now trading above $100 a barrel — up from roughly $70 before the war. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world's oil once moved, remains largely blocked. Strikes on oil and gas infrastructure by all sides have compounded the damage. Diesel has climbed to $5.45 a gallon nationally, and analysts like GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan are blunt: higher diesel means higher costs for everything trucks, tractors, and trains carry. The U.S. Postal Service has already added an 8 percent surcharge on Priority Mail.
For households, the math is already brutal. Alisa Howell of Charlotte now buys only the fuel she needs for the day. Danielle Ervin of Novi, Michigan, hunts for discount stations, has dropped streaming services, switched grocery stores, and stopped buying clothes for herself. "I have to maintain for the household," she said.
The political pressure is mounting alongside the prices. President Trump had made cheap gas a signature promise. Now, with midterms approaching, 45 percent of American adults say they are extremely or very concerned about affording gasoline — up from 30 percent just after his 2024 election win. Gravlin, filling her Toyota 4Runner, put it plainly: a president who ran on low gas prices started a war that sent them soaring.
Analysts are watching the Strait of Hormuz above all else. If it stays blocked, the national average could approach $4.50 — and potentially challenge the all-time record of just over $5 set in June 2022. The war is a month old. The prices are a month old. Neither shows signs of reversing.
At a Costco in Commerce Township, northwest of Detroit, Kelly Gravlin stood at the pump Tuesday and watched the total climb to $70.73 for a tank of regular unleaded. She paid just under four dollars a gallon. She was not happy about it.
Across the country, drivers are having the same experience. The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline crossed $4.02 on Tuesday, according to AAA — the first time the country has collectively paid that much since the summer of 2022, when Russia's war in Ukraine sent oil markets into a spiral. The difference this time is how fast it happened. Before February 28th, when the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran, the average was just under three dollars a gallon. The dollar-plus jump in a single month is the largest AAA has ever recorded.
The engine behind the surge is crude oil, which now trades above $100 a barrel for both Brent and U.S. benchmark grades — up from roughly $70 before the war began. The conflict has fractured supply chains across the Middle East, and the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which about one-fifth of the world's oil once moved, remains largely blocked. Producers in the region have crude they cannot ship. Iran, Israel, and the United States have all struck oil and gas infrastructure during the fighting, compounding the damage to supply.
The pain is not limited to the gas station. Diesel, which powers the freight trucks, farm tractors, and rail lines that keep American commerce moving, now averages $5.45 a gallon nationally, up from $3.76 before the war. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, put it plainly: higher diesel costs mean higher costs for everything those vehicles carry. Groceries, which require constant restocking and cold-chain logistics, are expected to feel the pressure quickly. The U.S. Postal Service has already moved to add a temporary 8 percent surcharge on Priority Mail and other popular products.
For ordinary households, the math is already brutal. Alisa Howell, of Charlotte, North Carolina, used to fill her tank completely whenever she stopped for gas. Now she buys only what she needs for the day. Danielle Ervin, of Novi, Michigan, hunts for discounts — she stopped at a Speedway on Tuesday morning because it offers eleven cents off per gallon — but still calls what she pays "terrible." She has dropped streaming subscriptions, switched grocery stores for produce, and stopped buying clothes and shoes for herself. "I have to maintain for the household," she said.
The political dimension is impossible to ignore. Before the war, President Trump had made cheap gas a signature promise, and he campaigned explicitly on bringing energy costs down. Now, with midterm elections approaching, a recent AP-NORC poll found that 45 percent of American adults say they are extremely or very concerned about being able to afford gasoline in the coming months — up from 30 percent shortly after Trump won the 2024 presidential election. Gravlin, filling up her Toyota 4Runner, framed it without much ambiguity: a president who ran on low gas prices started a war that sent them soaring.
The United States is in a somewhat more cushioned position than other parts of the world. As a net oil exporter, it has domestic supply to draw on. Countries in Asia that depend heavily on Middle Eastern imports have absorbed sharper shocks. But the U.S. still imports crude and refined products, and oil is priced globally — there is no wall around the American market.
Some states are already well past the national average. California drivers are paying nearly $5.89 a gallon. Oklahoma, at the other end, sits around $3.27. Seasonal factors are also nudging prices upward: spring break demand is rising, and refineries are switching to the more expensive summer-blend fuel.
Analysts are watching the Strait of Hormuz above everything else. De Haan and others say that if the waterway stays blocked much longer, the national average could climb toward $4.50 — and potentially approach the all-time record of just over $5, set in June 2022. Emergency stockpile releases and other government measures have so far done little to arrest the climb. The war is a month old. The pump prices are a month old. Neither shows signs of reversing.
Citas Notables
It's going to mean more expensive bills for truckers, tractors and trains — and consumers are likely greeted by rising grocery prices and broadly speaking, a rise in U.S. inflation.— Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy
It doesn't matter if you're Democrat or Republican. It's everybody.— Alisa Howell, Charlotte, North Carolina
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
A dollar more per gallon in a single month — is that actually unprecedented, or does it just feel that way?
It's genuinely unprecedented by AAA's own records. They've been tracking this for a long time, and they've never seen a monthly jump that large.
Why does the Strait of Hormuz matter so much if the U.S. produces its own oil?
Because oil is priced on a global market. When a fifth of the world's supply gets choked off, the price of every barrel everywhere goes up — including the ones pumped in Texas.
The diesel number jumped out at me. Five forty-five a gallon. Why does that matter more than the regular gas price?
Because diesel is what moves the economy. Trucks, trains, farm equipment — they all run on diesel. When that gets expensive, the cost of moving goods gets expensive, and eventually the price of the goods themselves follows.
The postal surcharge feels like a small detail, but is it?
It's a signal. The Postal Service is a massive logistics operation. When they add a surcharge, it means fuel costs have become serious enough to change how they price their services. Other shippers will follow.
Trump ran explicitly on low gas prices. How exposed is he politically?
Quite exposed. The AP-NORC poll shows concern about affording gas jumped fifteen points since he won. And the war is his war — he launched it. That's a hard combination to defend heading into midterms.
The people at the pump — Gravlin, Howell, Ervin — they're all in the Midwest. Is that representative?
The Midwest tends to have lower-than-average prices, so if people there are feeling squeezed, it's a reasonable proxy for the broader national mood. California drivers are paying nearly six dollars.
Is there any scenario where prices come down quickly?
Yes — if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and oil flows resume. But that requires the war to de-escalate, and right now there's no sign of that. Every strike on oil infrastructure makes recovery slower.