Everything Taiwan needs to fight must already be in place.
In the long tradition of war games that seek to make the unthinkable legible, a Washington think tank has spent months simulating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026 across twenty-four scenarios, and the answer that keeps returning is ancient in its logic: no one wins. The Center for Strategic and International Studies found that while China would likely fail to take the island, the cost of that failure — measured in sunken carriers, shattered fleets, and thousands of dead on every side — raises the question of whether victory and defeat are even meaningful categories in such a conflict. The simulation is less a prediction than a warning, arriving at a moment when Beijing's military pressure on Taiwan has grown steadily more deliberate and Xi Jinping has refused to foreclose the use of force.
- A 24-scenario war simulation concludes China's invasion would fail — but the United States would lose two aircraft carriers, roughly 3,200 troops, and between ten and twenty major warships in just three weeks of fighting.
- China's military would suffer catastrophically in absolute terms: an estimated 10,000 soldiers killed, 155 aircraft destroyed, and 138 vessels sunk — leaving its navy, currently the world's largest, devastated.
- Taiwan would survive as a defended island but emerge in ruins, its infrastructure destroyed, its economy crippled, and all twenty-six of its destroyers and frigates on the ocean floor — a victory that looks like defeat.
- Unlike Ukraine, where Western arms have flowed in after the invasion began, Taiwan is an island — once fighting starts, resupply becomes impossible, meaning everything needed to defend it must already be in place.
- The CSIS researchers warn that even if the U.S. implements every recommended reform — fortified bases, more submarines, long-range anti-ship missiles — the outcome could still be a Pyrrhic victory, leaving America worse off than the China it defeated.
A Washington think tank has spent months running a military simulation that keeps arriving at the same grim conclusion: if China invades Taiwan in 2026, nobody wins. The Center for Strategic and International Studies conducted twenty-four separate war game scenarios, and the results paint a picture of catastrophic loss on every side.
The simulation's core finding is stark. China's invasion would fail — Beijing would not take the island — but the cost of that failure would be staggering. Two American aircraft carriers would rest on the Pacific floor, roughly 3,200 American service members would die in the first three weeks, and Japan would lose more than one hundred combat aircraft supporting U.S. operations from its bases. China's military would suffer even more severely: approximately 10,000 soldiers killed, 155 aircraft destroyed, and 138 major vessels sunk. Its amphibious forces would be shattered, with tens of thousands captured as prisoners of war.
Taiwan itself would be left in ruins even in victory. All twenty-six of its destroyers and frigates would be sunk, and the island's infrastructure — power, services, economy — would be destroyed. Mark Cancian, one of the project's three directors, emphasized that the simulation was undertaken precisely because previous war games had been too limited or too opaque to give policymakers a genuine picture of how such a conflict might unfold.
The researchers were careful to note that their findings should not be read as suggesting war is inevitable. Some analysts argue a full-scale invasion remains unlikely because it would immediately disrupt the imports on which China's economy depends. Yet the Pentagon has designated China a 'pacing threat,' and Beijing has steadily escalated military pressure — fighter jets crossing the strait, missiles fired over Taiwan following Nancy Pelosi's August visit, and Xi Jinping's declaration at the Communist Party Congress that China reserves the right to use force.
The CSIS identified four conditions that must hold for the U.S. to prevail: Taiwan's ground forces must contain Chinese beachheads; the U.S. must operate from Japanese bases; long-range anti-ship missiles must be available in mass; and Taiwan must be fully armed before fighting begins. Unlike Ukraine, there would be no resupply once the shooting starts — everything the island needs must already be in place. Even if the U.S. implements every recommended change, the report warned, the outcome could still be a Pyrrhic victory, leaving America suffering more in the long term than the China it defeated.
A Washington think tank has spent months running a military simulation that keeps arriving at the same grim conclusion: if China invades Taiwan in 2026, nobody wins. The Center for Strategic and International Studies conducted twenty-four separate war game scenarios examining what a cross-strait conflict might actually look like, and the results paint a picture of catastrophic loss across every side.
The simulation's core finding is stark. China's invasion would fail—Beijing would not achieve its objective of taking the island—but the cost of that failure would be staggering. The U.S. military would emerge victorious but so damaged that victory itself becomes questionable. Two American aircraft carriers would rest on the Pacific floor. Between ten and twenty major surface combatants would be lost. Roughly 3,200 American service members would die in the first three weeks of fighting, nearly half the total U.S. military deaths across two decades of war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Japan, supporting American operations from its bases, would lose more than one hundred combat aircraft and twenty-six warships.
China's military would suffer even more severely in absolute numbers. The simulation estimates approximately 10,000 Chinese soldiers killed, 155 combat aircraft destroyed, and 138 major vessels sunk. The Chinese navy—currently the world's largest—would be, in the researchers' assessment, devastated. The amphibious forces that would carry an invasion across the strait would be shattered, with tens of thousands of troops captured as prisoners of war.
Taiwan itself would be left in ruins even in victory. The island's military would suffer around 3,500 casualties. All twenty-six of its destroyers and frigates would be sunk. The infrastructure of the island—power systems, basic services, the functioning economy—would be destroyed. The Taiwanese military would remain intact as a fighting force but degraded, left defending a blacked-out island with a crippled economy. Mark Cancian, one of the three directors of the CSIS project, emphasized that the researchers conducted this extensive simulation because previous war games, whether classified by the government or run privately, had been too limited or too opaque to give the public and policymakers a genuine picture of how such a conflict might unfold.
The simulation's findings carry weight because of their scope and rigor. The CSIS ran the scenarios twenty-four times to answer two fundamental questions: Would the invasion succeed, and at what cost? The answers are no and enormous. Yet the researchers were careful to note that their findings should not be read as suggesting war is inevitable or even probable. Some defense analysts argue that a full-scale invasion remains unlikely because such an operation would immediately disrupt the imports and exports on which China's economy depends for survival. China relies on food and fuel imports; a blockade of Taiwan would quickly threaten economic collapse.
Still, the Pentagon has designated China a "pacing threat," and Beijing has steadily escalated military pressure on the island. Chinese fighter jets regularly cross the Taiwan Strait and penetrate Taiwan's air defense identification zone. In August, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan prompted a massive show of force by China's military, including missiles fired over the island and into Japanese territorial waters. At the Communist Party Congress in October, Xi Jinping declared that China would "strive for peaceful reunification" but immediately added a darker note: China would never renounce the use of force and reserved the right to take all necessary measures.
The Biden administration has committed to arming Taiwan and has suggested American military personnel would defend the island if China attacked, though the Pentagon maintains this represents no change in the "One China" policy. A recently signed defense authorization law commits the U.S. to a ten-billion-dollar security assistance package over five years. The CSIS researchers identified four conditions that must hold for the U.S. to prevent China from ultimately controlling Taiwan: Taiwan's ground forces must contain Chinese beachheads; the U.S. must be able to operate from bases in Japan; the U.S. must possess long-range anti-ship missiles to strike China's navy from distance and in mass; and Taiwan must be fully armed before fighting begins, with American forces immediately committed. Unlike Ukraine, where Western supplies have flowed in after the Russian invasion started, there would be no resupply of Taiwan once the shooting begins. Everything the island needs to fight must already be in place. The researchers concluded that even if the U.S. implements all recommended changes—fortifying bases in Japan and Guam, shifting to smaller and more survivable naval vessels, prioritizing submarines—victory would still come at a devastating price. "The United States could obtain a Pyrrhic victory," the report stated, "suffering more in the long term than the defeated Chinese."
Citas Notables
No declassified war game analyzes a U.S.-China conflict. Of unclassified games, typically only one or two are conducted.— Mark Cancian, CSIS project director
The United States could obtain a Pyrrhic victory, suffering more in the long term than the defeated Chinese.— CSIS report conclusion
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does a war game matter if everyone agrees an invasion is unlikely?
Because wars happen even when the math says they shouldn't. Leaders miscalculate. Domestic politics push them toward decisions that look irrational from the outside. The simulation doesn't predict war—it shows what happens if miscalculation occurs.
The U.S. wins in most scenarios. Doesn't that suggest deterrence is working?
Winning and surviving are different things. Losing two carriers and 3,200 troops in three weeks is a victory that reshapes American power globally for years. That's not the kind of win that prevents war—it's the kind that makes you desperate to avoid it.
Why can't the U.S. resupply Taiwan like it did Ukraine?
Geography. Ukraine shares a border with NATO countries. Supplies move by truck and train. Taiwan is an island. Once China controls the waters around it, nothing gets through. Everything Taiwan needs to fight has to be there before the first shot.
If China's losses are worse, why would Xi Jinping risk it?
Because he might not believe the simulation. Or because domestic pressure to "reunify" becomes politically impossible to resist. Or because he thinks the U.S. won't actually fight. Rational actors don't start wars—people do.
What does the CSIS want the U.S. to do right now?
Arm Taiwan completely. Fortify bases in Japan and Guam. Shift to smaller, harder-to-sink ships. Move fast, because once war starts, there's no time to prepare. The window to prevent catastrophe is now, not during the conflict.
Is this simulation saying war is coming?
No. It's saying if war comes, this is what it looks like. The researchers were explicit: they don't think invasion is probable. But they think the consequences are so severe that the U.S. needs to act as if it could happen tomorrow.