When the price of energy and food rises, it hurts the poorest and the most vulnerable.
In the spring of 2022, as war reshaped the grain fields and energy corridors of Eastern Europe, its consequences arrived quietly but devastatingly at the tables of the Middle East and North Africa's poorest households. The World Bank, in a report it called a 'Reality Check,' warned that Russia's invasion of Ukraine had compounded already fragile post-pandemic economies across the region, driving up the cost of bread and fuel for millions who could afford neither to rise. History offered a grim lesson: in MENA, when bread becomes unaffordable, societies do not simply endure — they fracture.
- A war thousands of miles away is severing grain and energy supply lines that MENA's poorest nations depend on for basic survival, turning a regional inflation problem into a humanitarian emergency.
- Inflation is accelerating on two fronts simultaneously — oil-importing nations face price surges reaching 3.7% in 2022, while governments struggle to maintain food subsidies that stand between their populations and hunger.
- The World Bank is sounding alarms rooted in lived regional memory: bread price spikes have historically ignited social unrest across MENA, and fragile, conflict-affected states now face that same trigger with far less resilience to absorb the shock.
- A headline growth forecast of 5.2% masks a deeply uneven reality — oil exporters surge ahead while eleven of seventeen regional economies remain below their pre-pandemic baselines, with the most vulnerable falling further behind.
- For millions across the region, the Ukraine war is not a geopolitical abstraction but a daily arithmetic of rising costs and shrinking meals, landing hardest on those with the least margin for error.
In April 2022, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine entered its second month, the World Bank issued a sobering assessment of the war's reach into the Middle East and North Africa. The conflict, the bank warned, had "multiplied risks" for the region's poorest countries by pushing food and energy prices higher — two commodities on which millions depend for survival.
The timing could hardly have been worse. MENA was already carrying the weight of pandemic-era inflation when Ukraine's grain exports were disrupted and Russian energy and fertilizer supplies constrained. Ferid Belhaj, the World Bank's vice president for the region, offered no reassurances: the threat was real, and it fell most heavily on the poor.
What gave the warning its particular urgency was history. Across MENA, bread is not a comfort — it is a lifeline. And when its price rises sharply, the region's streets have answered. With fragile states already weakened by conflict, another food shock risked tipping vulnerable societies toward crisis. Inflation in oil-importing nations was projected to climb from 1.4 percent to 3.7 percent — a slow-motion catastrophe for governments already struggling to sustain food subsidies.
The World Bank's headline growth figure of 5.2 percent for 2022 — the fastest since 2016 — offered a misleading sense of momentum. Lead economist Daniel Lederman was careful to qualify it: the growth was both insufficient and uneven, driven almost entirely by oil exporters benefiting from elevated crude prices. Oil importers, the countries most exposed to food and energy shocks, were forecast to grow at only 4.0 percent. Eleven of the region's seventeen economies would not recover to pre-pandemic levels by year's end.
The burden, as it so often does, settled on those least equipped to carry it. For millions across MENA, the war in Ukraine was not a distant event — it was arriving at their tables, measurable in the price of a loaf of bread.
In April 2022, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine entered its second month, the World Bank issued a stark warning about the ripple effects spreading across the Middle East and North Africa. The conflict, the development lender said, had "multiplied risks" for the region's poorest countries by driving up the cost of food and energy—two commodities on which millions of people in MENA depend for survival.
The timing was brutal. The region was already struggling with inflation left over from the pandemic. Now, with Ukraine's grain supplies disrupted and Russian energy and fertilizer exports constrained, those inflationary pressures were about to get worse. Ferid Belhaj, the World Bank's vice president for MENA, put it plainly in the bank's quarterly update: "The threat of Covid-19 variants remains and the war in Ukraine has multiplied risks, particularly for the poor." The report, titled "Reality Check," was not optimistic.
What made this especially dangerous was history. In the Middle East and North Africa, bread is not a luxury—it is survival. And when bread prices spike, people take to the streets. The World Bank's economists knew this pattern well. Rising food costs had triggered social unrest across the region before. Now, with fragile states already weakened by conflict and violence, another shock to the food supply could push them toward crisis. "This link between food prices, conflict and low growth poses a serious concern for the humanitarian crisis in fragile, conflict and violence-affected states in MENA," the report warned.
The numbers told the story. In oil-rich Gulf countries, inflation was expected to jump from 1.2 percent in 2021 to 3.0 percent in 2022. For oil-importing nations—the poorer ones—the picture was worse: inflation would climb from 1.4 percent to 3.7 percent. For countries already struggling to feed their populations, this was a catastrophe in slow motion. Some governments would find it impossible to maintain food subsidies. Others would face pressure to cut them, pushing prices even higher for ordinary people.
Yet the World Bank's headline forecast remained oddly upbeat. The region would grow at 5.2 percent in 2022, the fastest pace since 2016. But Daniel Lederman, the bank's lead economist for MENA, was careful to explain what that number actually meant. Yes, growth was coming. But it was "insufficient and uneven." Insufficient because many MENA economies would still be poorer than they were before the pandemic hit. Uneven because the growth was being driven almost entirely by oil exporters, who were benefiting from higher crude prices. Oil exporters were forecast to grow at 5.4 percent. Oil importers—the countries most vulnerable to food and energy shocks—would expand by only 4.0 percent.
The divide was stark. Eleven of the region's seventeen economies would not even return to their pre-pandemic economic levels by the end of 2022. And as prices climbed, the burden fell hardest on those least able to bear it. "When the price of energy and food rises, it hurts the poorest and the most vulnerable," Lederman said. For millions of people across MENA, the Ukraine war was not a distant conflict. It was a direct threat to their ability to eat.
Citações Notáveis
The threat of Covid-19 variants remains and the war in Ukraine has multiplied risks, particularly for the poor.— Ferid Belhaj, World Bank MENA vice president
When the price of energy and food rises, it hurts the poorest and the most vulnerable.— Daniel Lederman, World Bank lead economist for MENA
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does the World Bank think bread prices matter so much in this region? It seems like an economic issue, but they're talking about it like it's political.
Because it is. In MENA, bread is subsidized by governments. When the price goes up, people can't afford it, and they blame their governments. Historically, that's led to protests, riots, sometimes worse. It's the trigger that turns economic pain into social upheaval.
So the Ukraine war is creating a food shortage in the Middle East?
Not exactly a shortage yet. But Ukraine and Russia together supply a huge share of the grain MENA depends on. With the war disrupting exports, prices are rising. And when prices rise, poor families have to choose between buying bread and buying other things they need.
The World Bank says growth will be 5.2 percent. That sounds positive. Why are they worried?
Because that growth is almost entirely coming from oil exporters. Countries that pump oil are making more money because oil prices are high. But countries that import oil and food—the poorer ones—are getting squeezed from both sides. They're paying more for energy and food, but not seeing the economic benefits.
So the forecast is misleading?
Not misleading, just incomplete. It's true that the region as a whole is growing faster than anywhere else. But that masks a dangerous split. The rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer, and the poorest are facing a real crisis.
What happens if food prices keep rising?
That's what keeps the World Bank up at night. In MENA's history, that's when governments fall, when conflicts start, when fragile states break. They're not being alarmist—they're reading the pattern.