Europe is ready. The question is whether America will join.
À margem da Assembleia Geral das Nações Unidas, Volodymyr Zelensky procura convencer Donald Trump de que o compromisso americano com a segurança pós-guerra da Ucrânia é tão indispensável quanto o europeu — pois sem esse pilar, a arquitetura de garantias que mais de vinte nações aliadas ajudaram a construir arrisca desmoronar antes mesmo de ser testada. A história ensina que as promessas de paz sem sustentação real raramente sobrevivem ao primeiro desafio; é essa lição que Zelensky carrega consigo para cada reunião bilateral em Nova Iorque.
- Zelensky chegou à ONU com um quadro de garantias de segurança quase completo, mas dependente de uma peça que Washington ainda não confirmou: cobertura aérea americana após o fim do conflito.
- Vinte e seis aliados comprometeram-se formalmente com garantias pós-guerra, mas vários condicionaram o envio de tropas à participação direta dos Estados Unidos — criando uma cadeia de compromissos que pode quebrar no elo mais fraco.
- Trump excluiu o envio de forças americanas à Ucrânia e Putin rejeitou qualquer presença militar estrangeira no país, deixando os aliados europeus a navegar entre dois vetos que limitam severamente as suas opções.
- Para além da segurança, Zelensky avança num acordo de minerais com Washington e negocia cooperação tecnológica e de defesa, tentando ancorar o interesse americano na reconstrução ucraniana através de laços económicos concretos.
- Uma cimeira reunindo 38 delegações debate o regresso de milhares de crianças ucranianas transferidas para a Rússia desde a invasão — uma das feridas mais visíveis e politicamente sensíveis deixadas pela guerra.
Volodymyr Zelensky chegou à Assembleia Geral das Nações Unidas com uma missão precisa: persuadir Donald Trump de que os Estados Unidos precisam de integrar o quadro de garantias de segurança que a Europa já se comprometeu a oferecer à Ucrânia após o fim da guerra. A reunião bilateral prevista nas margens da assembleia era, para Kyiv, o momento mais decisivo da semana.
Mais de vinte nações europeias sinalizaram disponibilidade para participar nessas garantias — através da adesão da Ucrânia à União Europeia, do destacamento de forças militares, ou de ambos. Em setembro, vinte e seis aliados formalizaram esse compromisso. Mas a condição imposta por vários deles tornou o quadro frágil: só enviariam tropas se Washington garantisse cobertura aérea. Trump já afastou essa hipótese, e Putin declarou não aceitar presença militar estrangeira em solo ucraniano. O resultado é um impasse diplomático que o empenho europeu, por si só, não consegue resolver.
A agenda de Zelensky em Nova Iorque ia além da segurança. Um acordo de minerais já assinado com Washington garante aos Estados Unidos acesso privilegiado a recursos naturais ucranianos em troca de investimento na reconstrução — uma aposta pragmática para manter o interesse americano ancorado em termos concretos.
Em paralelo, uma cimeira com 38 delegações debruçou-se sobre o destino de milhares de crianças ucranianas transferidas para a Rússia desde a invasão. Olena Zelenska encontrou-se com Melania Trump, que recentemente enviou uma carta a Putin sobre os menores sob controlo russo — um gesto que teve eco em Kyiv. Outra iniciativa, a Plataforma da Crimeia, reuniu cerca de trinta delegações em torno da reivindicação de longo prazo sobre a península anexada em 2014, num contexto em que a Rússia ocupa hoje cerca de vinte por cento do território que a Ucrânia controlava em 1991.
O quadro de segurança estava quase pronto, disse Zelensky. O que faltava era saber se Washington estaria disposto a completá-lo — e se as garantias reunidas em Nova Iorque seriam suficientes para dissuadir uma nova invasão russa.
Volodymyr Zelensky arrived at the United Nations General Assembly with a clear mission: convince Donald Trump that America's security commitment to Ukraine after the war would be as essential as Europe's. Speaking to reporters in New York, the Ukrainian president laid out the architecture he and his allies had constructed. "We've prepared the foundation for the security guarantees that Europe is willing to offer, counting on the United States to join," he said. The timing mattered. His scheduled meeting with Trump at the margins of the assembly represented perhaps the most consequential bilateral conversation of the week—one that would determine whether the post-war security framework Ukraine was building would hold.
The war itself had been grinding on since February 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion. Nearly three and a half years later, the fighting continued, but the conversation had shifted toward what came after. Over twenty European nations had already signaled their willingness to participate in security guarantees for Ukraine, a commitment that could take multiple forms: EU membership, the deployment of military forces, or some combination of both. Zelensky had also noted Trump's recent meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, where security guarantees had been on the agenda. The message was clear—this was not a Ukrainian concern alone, but a question occupying the minds of Western leaders across the Atlantic.
Yet the architecture had cracks. In early September, twenty-six of Ukraine's allies, predominantly European, had formally committed to offering security guarantees once the conflict ended. But several of those nations had attached a condition: they would only deploy troops after the war if the United States made a firm commitment of its own, particularly in the form of air cover. Trump, however, had already ruled out sending American forces to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin had made clear that Russia would not tolerate foreign military presence on Ukrainian soil. These two positions created a diplomatic puzzle that no amount of European commitment could solve alone.
Zelensky's agenda in New York extended beyond security. He planned a series of bilateral meetings and hoped to signal from each conversation that his allies stood united. Economic recovery was equally urgent. He highlighted trade, technology, and defense cooperation, but also a mineral agreement already signed with Washington—an arrangement that gave the United States privileged access to Ukrainian natural resources in exchange for American investment in the country's reconstruction. The deal was pragmatic: Ukraine needed capital to rebuild, and the U.S. had strategic interests in securing critical materials.
Parallel to these discussions, a summit was being convened to address one of the war's most haunting legacies. Thousands of Ukrainian children had been transferred to Russia since the invasion began. Thirty-eight delegations from countries and international organizations had confirmed their participation in this summit. Zelensky's wife, Olena Zelenska, was scheduled to meet with Melania Trump, focusing specifically on the fate of these children. Melania Trump had recently gained traction in Ukraine after sending a letter to Putin about the minors held in Russian territory or under Russian control—a gesture that had resonated in Kyiv.
Another initiative drawing roughly thirty delegations was the Crimea Platform, a forum Zelensky had launched to press for the return of the Black Sea peninsula. Russia had annexed Crimea in 2014, marking the first seizure of Ukrainian territory after the country's independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. The subsequent invasion in 2022 had brought further annexations: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. In total, Russia now occupied approximately twenty percent of the territory Ukraine had controlled in 1991. The Crimea Platform represented a long-term commitment to reclaiming what had been lost, even as immediate negotiations focused on ending the current fighting.
Zelensky and his team were racing to finalize the details of what post-war security would look like. The framework was nearly complete, he said, but its success hinged on whether Washington would match Europe's commitment. The coming days in New York would test whether that alignment was possible—and whether the guarantees being assembled could actually prevent another Russian invasion.
Citas Notables
We've prepared the foundation for the security guarantees that Europe is willing to offer, counting on the United States to join.— Zelensky, speaking to reporters at the UN
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does Zelensky need Trump's commitment specifically? Couldn't Europe provide security on its own?
Europe can offer guarantees, but several countries won't deploy troops unless America commits to air cover. Without that, the framework is incomplete. Russia knows this too.
What's stopping Trump from making that commitment?
He's already said he won't send troops to Ukraine. Whether that extends to air support is the question Zelensky is trying to answer in their meeting.
And Putin—what's his position?
He's rejected any foreign military presence on Ukrainian soil. So even if Europe and America agree on guarantees, Russia has already said it won't accept them.
That sounds like a deadlock.
It is, for now. But Zelensky is also pursuing economic agreements—minerals, technology, reconstruction funds. Those might matter more for Ukraine's actual survival than the security guarantees.
What about the children?
Thousands were transferred to Russia during the invasion. That's a separate crisis, but it's part of why Zelensky is in New York—to keep international pressure on all fronts at once.