Surrounded by sycophants, unchecked by Congress, Trump has broken something he cannot fix.
Without congressional authorization, the United States has entered a war with Iran, and the tremors are spreading far beyond the Middle East. The conflict has shattered oil, gas, and fertilizer infrastructure at a moment when the global economy was already burdened by pandemic aftershocks, the Ukraine war, and a sweeping tariff regime — a convergence that is driving stagflation across both wealthy and vulnerable nations. Democratic safeguards designed to prevent exactly this kind of unchecked executive action have largely been bypassed, leaving institutions weakened and dissent suppressed. History reminds us that unconstrained power does not merely wound those nearest to it; it reshapes the world entire.
- Trump has launched a war against Iran with no legislative authorization, killing thousands of civilians and generating credible allegations of American war crimes — a constitutional rupture that would have been unthinkable a generation ago.
- Destroyed oil, gas, and fertilizer infrastructure is cascading through global supply chains, arriving on top of COVID, Ukraine, and tariff shocks to produce a compounding stagflationary crisis that no single policy lever can easily reverse.
- Central banks are being forced to halt or reverse interest rate cuts, making mortgages, credit, and household debt more punishing precisely when working families can least afford it.
- US fiscal capacity to absorb the damage has been deliberately narrowed by tax cuts favoring billionaires and corporations, while windfall profits from higher energy prices flow to oil companies rather than back to consumers.
- Europe faces the same energy shocks but holds a strategic choice: deepen dependence on American technology and fossil fuels, or use the crisis as leverage to accelerate green energy independence.
- The one fragile hope is that the catastrophe accelerates a global renewable energy transition — but that would require the kind of coordinated foresight that the current political moment conspicuously lacks.
The United States is at war with Iran, and Congress never voted for it. That constitutional breach, unthinkable a generation ago, is the hinge on which a widening global crisis now turns. Trump, in his second term and surrounded by advisors who reinforce rather than challenge him, has proceeded without the institutional checks democracy was built to require. The war has already claimed thousands of civilian lives and produced credible allegations of American war crimes.
The economic damage radiates outward. The conflict has destroyed oil, gas, and fertilizer infrastructure that will take years to rebuild — and it has done so atop an already strained global system battered by the pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and Trump's own tariff war. The result is stagflation: prices rising while growth stalls, spreading across developed and developing economies alike. Before Trump returned to office, inflation had been retreating. His policies reversed that trajectory.
Central banks now face a punishing dilemma — raise rates or slow their reduction — either path deepening the affordability crisis gripping millions of households. Meanwhile, the US fiscal position has been weakened by tax cuts heavily skewed toward corporations and the wealthy, leaving little room to cushion the disruptions. Oil companies are reaping windfall profits from higher prices; ordinary consumers are paying them. Trump's claim that America benefits as a net energy exporter is a comfort offered to shareholders, not citizens.
Europe is absorbing the same shocks. Higher energy costs and supply shortages are rippling across the continent, and some governments risk amplifying the damage by tying electricity prices to gas. Yet a harder-headed response is also possible: if European leaders use this moment to reduce dependence on American technology and defense, they may emerge strategically stronger — a bitter irony, given that the United States built the very international order now being dismantled.
The long-term consequences will be durable. Supply chains are fragile. Inflation is accelerating. Democratic norms are eroding, with fear of visa revocation and criminal investigation silencing dissent even on university campuses. One slender hope remains: that the crisis hastens a global shift to renewable energy, reducing the world's exposure to fossil fuels controlled by erratic actors. But that would require foresight and coordination that the current moment does not inspire.
The United States is at war with Iran, and no one in Congress authorized it. That fact alone would have seemed impossible a generation ago, when the constitutional requirement for legislative approval of military action was treated as foundational. But Donald Trump, now in his second term as president, has simply proceeded without the deliberation, debate, or checks that the system was designed to require. The consequences are unfolding across the global economy in ways that will take years to fully understand.
There is an old principle, articulated by Alexander Pope, that human error is inevitable. But not all errors carry equal weight. Some people are more prone to catastrophic mistakes than others, which is precisely why democracies were built with safeguards—deliberative processes, competing centers of power, institutional brakes on individual will. History is crowded with authoritarian rulers whose miscalculations devastated not just themselves but entire societies. Trump, surrounded by advisors who tell him what he wants to hear and unchecked by a legislature that has largely abdicated its role, has become that figure. The war with Iran, already responsible for thousands of civilian deaths and credible allegations of American war crimes, is the most visible consequence of this unconstrained power.
But the damage extends far beyond the Middle East. The conflict has destroyed critical infrastructure—oil and gas facilities, fertilizer production capacity—that will take years to repair. These are not abstract economic metrics. Fertilizer production underpins global food systems. Oil and gas supply chains touch every economy on earth. Unlike the oil embargoes of the 1970s, which were discrete events, this disruption arrives atop a cascade of other shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Trump's global tariff war, and the systematic dismantling of the rules-based international trade system that has governed commerce since the Second World War. The cumulative effect is stagflation—rising prices coupled with economic stagnation—spreading across developed and developing nations alike.
Before Trump returned to office, inflation was declining, though still above the two percent target that central banks prefer. His tariffs reversed that trajectory. Prices have begun climbing again globally. In response, central banks face a grim choice: raise interest rates to combat inflation, or at least slow the pace at which they were lowering them. Either path deepens the affordability crisis already gripping millions of households. Mortgages become more expensive. Credit card debt becomes harder to service. The US economy, already fragile from Trump's erratic policies on trade, immigration, and spending, would be contracting sharply were it not for massive investment in artificial intelligence data centers, which now account for roughly one-third of American economic growth. That is an extraordinarily narrow foundation for an economy of three hundred million people.
The fiscal picture is worse. Trump has enacted tax cuts heavily favoring billionaires and corporations, shrinking the government's ability to cushion the disruptions he has created. His administration will not impose a windfall-profits tax on oil companies benefiting from higher prices, despite having the authority to do so. The fossil-fuel industry has captured the policymaking apparatus entirely. Trump claims the United States will benefit as a net oil exporter, but that is a fiction designed to comfort Exxon shareholders. American consumers pay global prices for energy, and those prices have risen substantially. The gains accrue to corporations; the costs fall on households.
Europe is being battered by the same forces. Higher energy prices and supply shortages are rippling across the continent. Some European governments, having learned nothing from the early stages of the Ukraine war, may tie electricity prices to gas prices, amplifying the damage. But others are beginning to see an opportunity. If European policymakers use this moment to reduce dependence on American technology and defense systems, they could strengthen their strategic position over the long term. The irony is bitter: the country that built the post-war international order is now dismantling it.
No one can predict how long the Iran war will last, how many more civilians will be killed, or how many additional war crimes will be committed before it ends. What is clear is that the long-term consequences will be severe and durable. Supply chains lack resilience. Inflation is accelerating. Democracy in the United States is weakened, with fear—the threat of visa revocation, expulsion, criminal investigation—suppressing dissent even on university campuses, traditionally centers of protest. There is one potential silver lining: if this crisis accelerates the global transition to renewable energy, reducing dependence on fossil fuels controlled by erratic authoritarian figures, something valuable might emerge from the wreckage. But that would require foresight and coordination that the current moment does not inspire. For now, the world watches as the architect of the post-war system dismantles its own creation, and the human costs accumulate.
Citas Notables
Like the kings of old, America's impulsive president remains unchecked by the legislature and surrounded by advisors who tell him only what he wants to hear.— Analysis of Trump's governance structure
The longer the war lasts, the greater the damage will be. But even if it ends quickly, the effects will linger.— Economic assessment of the Iran conflict
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does it matter that Congress didn't authorize this war? Isn't the president commander-in-chief?
The Constitution gives Congress the power to declare war precisely because the founders understood that the decision to kill and be killed is too consequential for any single person to make alone. A president can respond to immediate threats, but sustained military action requires deliberation, debate, competing perspectives. Trump skipped that entirely.
But people seem to accept it. Where's the outrage?
Fear works. When people worry about losing their visa, their job, their standing, they stay quiet. That's how repressive systems function. Add in the constant stream of news, the exhaustion, and you get compliance by default.
You mentioned fertilizer. Why is that more important than oil?
Oil is critical, but we have alternatives—solar, wind, electric vehicles. Fertilizer is the foundation of global food production. There's no substitute. Damage it, and you're threatening food security for billions of people.
So this is worse than the 1970s oil crisis?
In some ways, yes. That was a discrete event. This is layered on top of COVID, Ukraine, tariffs, trade war. Each shock alone is manageable. Together, they're creating conditions where central banks have no good options.
What happens to ordinary Americans?
Housing becomes less affordable. Credit card debt gets harder to pay. Wages don't keep pace with prices. And the government has less room to help because of tax cuts for billionaires. The burden falls on people with the least ability to absorb it.