Only fools would think a temporary price spike isn't worth the cost
Amid rising fuel costs and an active military conflict with Iran, Donald Trump's approval rating has edged upward to 43.7 percent — a quiet signal that wartime framing, however contested, can offer a president partial shelter from economic discontent. The American public remains deeply divided, neither fully endorsing the strikes nor fully withdrawing support from the man who ordered them. It is a familiar tension in democratic life: the gap between what a nation fears and what it is willing to sanction in response.
- Trump's approval, which had sunk to 42% in mid-February, has climbed back to 43.7% — a fragile recovery that defies the twin pressures of a shooting war and gas prices not seen in years.
- Fuel costs have surged dramatically — regular gasoline up nearly 20% in a month, diesel leaping over a dollar per gallon — squeezing American households even as the administration frames the pain as patriotic sacrifice.
- The Iran conflict has split the country nearly in half on airstrikes, and more decisively against ground deployment, with two-thirds opposing boots on the ground despite 61% viewing Iran as a genuine threat.
- Trump's State of the Union address appears to have stabilized his numbers, but foreign policy disapproval remains as high as 60% in some surveys, and his approval still sits well below his inauguration-day standing.
- The streets mirror the polls — rallies celebrating Khamenei's death on one corner, anti-escalation protests on the next — as the nation waits to see whether the conflict widens or the gas prices fall as promised.
Donald Trump's approval rating has climbed to 43.7 percent as of March 9, 2026, recovering from a mid-February low of 42 percent — a modest rebound that arrives against the backdrop of surging gas prices and an active military conflict with Iran. His State of the Union address on February 24 appears to have helped steady his standing; 57 percent of viewers rated it positively. Still, he remains well below the 50.5 percent approval he carried into office in January 2025.
The Iran conflict has proven sharply divisive. Americans split nearly down the middle on the airstrikes themselves — 45.7 percent in favor, 50.1 percent opposed — while opposition to ground deployment is far more decisive, with more than two-thirds against sending troops. A Fox News poll found 61 percent consider Iran a genuine national security threat, yet that fear has not translated into broad support for military action. On Trump's foreign policy handling overall, disapproval reached 60 percent in the same survey.
At the pump, the economic toll is tangible. Regular gasoline has risen from $2.90 to $3.47 per gallon in a single month; diesel has jumped from $3.63 to $4.65. Trump has taken to social media to defend the costs, arguing that temporary oil price spikes are a small price for eliminating what he calls an existential nuclear threat — and that only fools would see it otherwise.
Different polling firms tell slightly different stories: Rasmussen holds Trump at 46 percent, unchanged since before the war; Quantus Insights shows a rise from 43 to 45 percent; the Economist/YouGov survey actually shows a slight dip to 42 percent. Taken together, the picture is one of modest, uneven recovery — a president whose standing has not collapsed under the weight of war and economic pain, but who has not yet found solid ground either. Whether the uptick holds depends largely on what unfolds next in Iran, and whether gas prices begin the descent Trump has promised.
Donald Trump's approval rating has ticked upward to 43.7 percent, according to the RealClearPolicing average as of March 9, 2026—a modest recovery from the depths he hit just weeks earlier. This rebound is notable precisely because it arrives amid two significant headwinds: gasoline prices that have climbed sharply at the pump, and an escalating military conflict with Iran that has fractured American public opinion along familiar lines.
The numbers tell a story of resilience, though a fragile kind. In mid-February, Trump's approval had bottomed out at 42 percent, with disapproval reaching 55.5 percent. His State of the Union address on February 24 appears to have steadied the ship somewhat. The Economist/YouGov poll found that 57 percent of viewers rated the speech positively, compared to 32 percent who viewed it negatively. Since then, his approval has climbed back to the low 43 percent range across most major polling outfits, though the recovery remains incomplete—he still sits well below the 50.5 percent approval he carried when taking office in January 2025.
The Iran conflict has proven deeply polarizing. When asked directly about the strikes themselves, Americans split nearly down the middle: 45.7 percent approved while 50.1 percent disapproved, according to Quantus Insights. The division grows starker when the question turns to ground deployment. More than two-thirds of those surveyed oppose sending American troops into the conflict. A Fox News poll found that 61 percent of respondents view Iran as a genuine national security threat to the United States, yet this perception has not translated into broad support for military action. On Trump's handling of foreign policy specifically, disapproval reached 60 percent in that same survey. CNN, NBC, and YouGov polls similarly showed majorities expressing concern about escalation and disapproving of the strikes.
Meanwhile, fuel prices have climbed sharply. Regular gasoline now averages $3.47 per gallon nationally, up from $2.90 a month prior. Diesel has jumped even more dramatically, from $3.63 to $4.65 per gallon. Trump has moved to defend the war's economic cost through social media, arguing that temporary oil price spikes are a worthwhile trade for eliminating what he frames as an existential threat. "Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace," he wrote, adding that only fools would disagree.
The streets have reflected the same fracture visible in polling. Some Americans have rallied in support of the military action, celebrating the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and calling for the end of the Iranian regime. Others have taken to the same streets in protest, voicing fears that the conflict will spiral into wider Middle East violence. Rasmussen Reports shows Trump's approval holding steady at 46 percent as of March 9, unchanged from before the war began. The Quantus Insights poll found approval at 45 percent in early March, up from 43 percent in mid-February. The Economist/YouGov survey, by contrast, showed approval at 42 percent as of March 2, actually down from 43 percent before the conflict.
The picture that emerges is one of modest movement in Trump's direction, but movement nonetheless. His approval has recovered from its nadir, though it remains historically low and well below where he started his term. The war has not cratered his standing further, despite the economic pain at the gas pump and the clear majority opposition to ground escalation. Whether this modest uptick proves durable depends partly on what happens next in Iran, and partly on whether gas prices begin to fall as Trump has promised they will.
Citas Notables
Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace.— Donald Trump, via social media
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
How does Trump's approval actually move when something this big happens—a war, soaring gas prices? You'd think both would crater him.
You'd think so. And his numbers did hit bottom in mid-February. But the State of the Union speech seems to have given him some room. People watched it, most reacted positively, and since then he's climbed back a couple points. It's not a surge, but it's not collapse either.
So Americans are okay with the war?
Not exactly. When you ask them directly, it's nearly split down the middle—46 percent for, 50 percent against. But when you ask about actually sending troops in, two-thirds say no. There's a difference between accepting something and supporting it.
And the gas prices?
They've jumped hard. Regular gas is up 57 cents a gallon in a month. Trump's argument is that it's temporary, that once the nuclear threat is gone, prices will fall. He's betting people will accept short-term pain for what he frames as long-term security.
Are they accepting it?
The polling suggests they're tolerating it, at least for now. His approval didn't crater further. But disapproval on foreign policy specifically is running 60 percent in some surveys. People aren't enthusiastic about any of this.
What happens if gas prices keep climbing?
That's the real test. Right now he's got a narrow window where people are divided enough that his numbers can hold. But if prices keep rising and the war drags on, that window closes fast.