The Strait of Hormuz will never return to pre-war conditions
A memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran exists on paper, but the two nations are already narrating it as entirely different agreements. At the center of the dispute lies 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium buried beneath bombed facilities that international inspectors have not seen in over a year. What was announced as a framework for peace is revealing itself, in the days after signing, to be a contest over sovereignty, verification, and who gets to define what was promised — a reminder that in diplomacy, the hardest work often begins after the handshake.
- Trump publicly insists Iran agreed to full IAEA nuclear inspections, while Iranian officials flatly deny any such arrangement has been made — leaving the deal's core verification mechanism in open dispute.
- Nearly 900 pounds of uranium enriched to 60% purity sits inaccessible at bombed Iranian facilities, and the longer inspectors remain locked out, the more the agreement's credibility erodes.
- Iran and Oman's joint claim to manage — and potentially charge fees on — the Strait of Hormuz directly contradicts the U.S. position that no tolls can be levied on an international waterway, threatening a flashpoint over global energy flows.
- The human cost accumulates in the background: over 4,000 dead in Lebanon, 1.2 million displaced, and more than 11,000 sailors stranded in the Gulf awaiting UN evacuation as negotiations inch forward.
- Four working groups and Pakistani mediation offer a structural path forward, but senior officials acknowledge that two months of difficult negotiations lie ahead before the framework can become reality.
The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran is barely signed, and the two sides are already disputing what it says. President Trump declared on social media that Iran had agreed — "fully and completely" — to IAEA nuclear inspections. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman said the opposite: no meetings with the IAEA director general have occurred, and no inspections of the bombed enrichment sites are planned.
The disagreement is not peripheral. Buried at the Isfahan facility is roughly 900 pounds of uranium enriched to 60% purity — a short step from weapons-grade — and international inspectors have been locked out since Israel's twelve-day campaign against Iran in 2025. Vice President Vance and Trump both claimed inspectors could return within days. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi, speaking from Japan, said the memorandum does require his agency to supervise Iran's nuclear activities and expressed confidence it would happen — though he offered no firm timeline. Trump, when pressed, said only: "At the appropriate time. There's no rush."
The fractures extend beyond uranium. Iran's chief negotiator declared the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil and gas flows — will never return to pre-war conditions and will remain under Iranian control. Secretary of State Rubio, arriving in the UAE, rejected any notion of Iranian tolls on the waterway. Yet Iran and Oman issued a joint statement signaling they would study service costs for managing the strait. Commercial traffic has resumed modestly — 35 vessels on Monday, still only a third of normal — but the passage's legal status remains unresolved.
Disputes over money compound the tension. Trump posted that released Iranian assets would be spent exclusively on American agricultural goods. Iran's spokesman dismissed this, saying Tehran would spend its own funds as it saw fit, adding a pointed observation: that a war once declared to be about destroying Iranian civilization had apparently been reduced to enriching American farmers.
The human toll persists beyond the negotiating table. More than 4,000 people have been killed in Lebanon since Israel's war with Hezbollah began in March, 1.2 million have been displaced, and the UN is evacuating over 11,000 sailors stranded in the Gulf. Israel continues to occupy a strip of southern Lebanese territory, with its leaders insisting forces will remain until the Hezbollah threat is gone — despite the memorandum's call for an end to military operations on all fronts.
Pakistan, mediating the talks, has acknowledged that "a great deal of difficult work lies ahead" over the next two months. Four working groups have been established to address sanctions, nuclear affairs, reconstruction, and monitoring. But the underlying problem is plain: the United States and Iran are describing the same agreement in fundamentally incompatible terms, and until those visions converge, every detail will remain a battle.
The ink on the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding is barely dry, and already the two sides are arguing about what they agreed to. President Trump insists Iran has consented to nuclear inspections—"fully and completely," as he put it in a social media post Tuesday morning. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said the opposite: there are no plans for inspectors to visit the enrichment sites that were bombed a year ago. This is not a minor disagreement. It goes to the heart of whether the deal that was supposed to end a war can actually hold.
The stakes are concrete. Buried deep underground at the Isfahan facility, according to U.N. nuclear agency officials, is roughly 900 pounds of uranium enriched to 60% purity—a short technological step from the 90% needed for a weapon. Since Israel launched its twelve-day campaign against Iran in 2025, the International Atomic Energy Agency has been locked out of these sites. Vice President JD Vance said Monday that Iran had agreed to let inspectors return as soon as this week. Trump doubled down on that claim Tuesday. But when asked directly, Baqaei was unambiguous: "We have not had a meeting with the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, nor do we have any plans for the agency to inspect Iran's nuclear facilities damaged by the U.S. and Zionist military aggression."
The IAEA's own chief, Rafael Mariano Grossi, tried to cut through the noise. Speaking from Japan on Wednesday, he said the memorandum explicitly requires his agency to supervise Iran's nuclear activities. "Whether this happens the day after tomorrow or in one week or in ten days, it's important, but not essential. This is going to happen," he said. Trump, when pressed on timing, offered only: "At the appropriate time. There's no rush." The contradiction is stark, and it matters because the entire interim agreement hinges on Iran's willingness to let outsiders verify what it's doing with its nuclear material.
The disagreements extend far beyond uranium. Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, declared Tuesday that the Strait of Hormuz—the chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil and gas flows—will never return to pre-war conditions and will remain under Iranian control. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, arriving in the United Arab Emirates, said flatly that the U.S. would not accept Iranian tolls or fees on the waterway. "It's an international waterway. No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway," he said. Yet Iran and Oman issued a joint statement saying they would study "the costs to be charged for services" in managing the strait. Monday saw 35 commercial vessels transit the passage—the busiest day since the war began, though still only about a third of normal traffic.
There are also disputes over money. Trump posted that any frozen Iranian assets released by the U.S. would be spent "exclusively" on American food and medical supplies—corn, wheat, soybeans from American farmers. Baqaei rejected that entirely, saying Iran would decide how to spend its own money based on price and quality, and that income from resumed oil and gas sales would be spent at Tehran's discretion. "It is interesting to us that the philosophy and objective of the war, which they previously declared to be the destruction of Iranian civilization and the collapse of Iran, has now been reduced to making American farmers richer," he said.
Meanwhile, the human toll continues to mount. At least 4,192 people have been killed and 12,171 wounded in Lebanon since Israel's war with Hezbollah began on March 2. Some 1.2 million have been displaced from their homes. The U.N. is now evacuating more than 11,000 sailors stranded in the Persian Gulf. On Tuesday, Israeli forces killed two people they described as Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon, where Israeli troops occupy a six-mile-deep strip of territory. Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun said his government would accept "nothing less" than complete Israeli withdrawal and the restoration of Lebanese sovereignty. The memorandum calls for an end to military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, but Israeli leaders say forces will remain until the Hezbollah threat is eliminated.
Pakistan, which has been mediating the talks, acknowledged the scale of the work ahead. A senior Pakistani official told CBS News that "a great deal of difficult work lies ahead" over the next two months. Iran's technical negotiators have established four working groups to handle sanctions termination, nuclear affairs, reconstruction, and monitoring. But the fundamental problem is clear: the U.S. and Iran are describing the same agreement in fundamentally different ways. Trump sees a deal in which Iran has capitulated on inspections, missiles, and nuclear capacity. Iran sees a framework in which it retains control over its territory, its waterways, and its strategic assets. Until those visions align, every detail—from when inspectors arrive to who controls the strait to how frozen money gets spent—will be a battle.
Citas Notables
We have not had a meeting with the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, nor do we have any plans for the agency to inspect Iran's nuclear facilities damaged by the U.S. and Zionist military aggression.— Esmaeil Baqaei, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman
It is interesting to us that the philosophy and objective of the war, which they previously declared to be the destruction of Iranian civilization and the collapse of Iran, has now been reduced to making American farmers richer.— Esmaeil Baqaei, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, on U.S. conditions for spending frozen assets
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
So Trump says Iran agreed to inspections, and Iran says it didn't. How do you even negotiate when the two sides can't agree on what they just negotiated?
That's the question everyone's asking. The memorandum exists—both sides signed it. But they're reading it like two people who bought the same house and disagree on what color the walls are supposed to be. Trump sees capitulation. Iran sees a framework that protects its interests.
What about the IAEA chief? He seemed confident inspections would happen.
He's trying to be the adult in the room. He's saying the agreement explicitly requires supervision of nuclear activities, and supervision requires inspections. But he also said there's no rush—which is a diplomatic way of saying he knows this is contested and he's not going to force it.
The Strait of Hormuz seems like another flashpoint. Why does Iran think it can charge tolls on an international waterway?
Because Iran controls the coastline. International law says you can't charge tolls, but Iran argues it's providing services—navigation assistance, security, coordination. It's a distinction without much difference, but it's how they justify it. The U.S. says no tolls. Iran says there will be costs. Both sides are staking out positions.
And the frozen assets—Trump says they'll buy American goods, Iran says it'll spend them however it wants.
That's about sovereignty. Iran sees Trump trying to control how it spends its own money even after sanctions are lifted. Trump sees a way to ensure the money doesn't fund what he considers terrorism. Neither side trusts the other's intentions, so they're arguing about the mechanics of trust.
Is there any chance this deal actually holds?
Pakistan thinks so, but they're also saying there's "a great deal of difficult work" ahead. The deal works if both sides decide the alternative—more war—is worse. Right now, they're testing each other's limits. The real test will be what happens in Lebanon when Israeli forces are supposed to leave and Hezbollah is supposed to disarm. That's where the agreement could actually break.