I'm not asking for favours because you have to do favours in return
At a crossroads between diplomacy and renewed conflict, Donald Trump arrived in Dubai claiming Chinese President Xi Jinping had agreed that Iran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz — a claim Beijing neither confirmed nor denied. The blockade, born of US and Israeli strikes that killed thousands of Iranians, has silenced one of the world's most vital energy corridors, sending oil prices climbing and global markets into a prolonged unease. What hangs in the balance is not merely a waterway, but the question of whether great powers can find common cause before exhaustion becomes catastrophe.
- Trump declared his patience nearly spent, threatening renewed military strikes if Iran refuses a deal — even as his own account of Xi's commitments went conspicuously unconfirmed by Beijing.
- The Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil once moved freely, remains effectively closed, pushing crude to $109 a barrel and driving US Treasury yields to their highest point in a year.
- Iran's foreign minister signaled cautious openness to continued talks while simultaneously reporting that over 31 million Iranians had enlisted in a public defense campaign — a nation preparing for both negotiation and war.
- A fragile 45-day ceasefire extension between Israel and Lebanon offered a thin thread of relief, even as Hezbollah rejected the terms and thousands continued to die in renewed fighting.
- China, Iran's largest oil customer and a potential diplomatic lever, declined to commit to pressuring Tehran — leaving analysts to wonder whether Beijing prefers resolution or the slow attrition of American power.
Donald Trump stepped off Air Force One in Dubai on Friday with a bold claim: that Chinese President Xi Jinping had agreed Iran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But Beijing offered no such confirmation. China's foreign ministry issued only a terse statement — the war should not have started and had no reason to continue. When pressed, Trump deflected, hinting he might lift sanctions on Chinese companies buying Iranian oil, though he offered no timeline or certainty.
The conflict had settled into a dangerous stalemate. US and Israeli air strikes began in late February, killing thousands of Iranians. Iran responded by closing the strait to most shipping — an unprecedented disruption to global energy. The US paused its strikes but imposed a port blockade instead. Tehran refused to reopen the waterway until the blockade ended. Trump threatened to attack again. "I am not going to be much more patient," he told Fox News on Thursday night.
The economic pressure was intensifying. Oil climbed roughly 3 percent to around $109 a barrel. Treasury yields hit a year-long high as traders braced for the Federal Reserve to respond to inflationary strain. The UAE announced it would accelerate a pipeline to its port at Fujairah after a vessel bound there was sunk and another redirected to Iran.
Iran's foreign minister, speaking in New Delhi, said Tehran had received signals from Washington of a willingness to keep talking, but made clear the distrust ran deep — previous negotiations had collapsed when US strikes resumed. Iran was preparing for both outcomes: diplomacy and renewed war.
The human toll remained largely absent from the diplomatic choreography. Thousands had died in Lebanon as well, in renewed fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. A fragile ceasefire was extended by 45 days on Friday, though Hezbollah opposed the terms. Talks between Iran and the US had stalled since the previous week, each side rejecting the other's proposals.
For Trump, the conflict had become a political liability ahead of November's congressional elections. For China, the calculus was murkier — analysts doubted Xi would press Iran hard, given Tehran's value as a counterweight to American influence. Whether Beijing would use its considerable leverage to break the deadlock, or simply watch two adversaries exhaust each other, remained the question no one could yet answer.
Donald Trump's patience with Iran is fraying. Stepping off Air Force One in Dubai on Friday after two days of talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, the US president declared that Tehran's time to negotiate was running short. He said Xi had agreed that Iran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas once flowed before the conflict strangled it nearly silent.
But there was a gap between what Trump claimed and what Beijing was willing to say. Xi offered no public comment on Iran. China's foreign ministry, instead, issued a terse statement: the war should never have started and had no reason to continue. When pressed on whether Xi had committed to pressuring Tehran, Trump deflected. "I'm not asking for any favours because, when you ask for favours, you have to do favours in return," he said to reporters aboard his plane. He was considering whether to lift US sanctions on Chinese oil companies buying Iranian crude—a significant carrot, given that China is the world's largest buyer of Iranian oil. Yet he offered no timeline and no certainty.
The conflict had reached a dangerous stalemate. In late February, US and Israeli air strikes began. Iran responded by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz to most shipping, an unprecedented disruption to global energy supplies. The US paused its attacks last month but imposed a port blockade instead. Tehran said it would not reopen the strait until the blockade ended. Trump threatened to attack again if Iran refused to make a deal. "We don't want them to have a nuclear weapon, we want the straits open," he had said in Beijing, sitting beside Xi. But Iran, which has long denied any intention to build a nuclear weapon, refused to halt its nuclear research or surrender its hidden stockpile of enriched uranium. Trump's frustration was audible. "I am not going to be much more patient. They should make a deal," he told Fox News' Hannity program on Thursday night.
The economic toll was mounting. Oil prices climbed roughly 3 percent to around $109 a barrel on Friday, driven by anxiety over the stalled negotiations. US Treasury yields hit their highest point in about a year as traders braced for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in response to inflationary pressures from the blockade. Shipping through the strait had nearly ceased. The UAE announced it would accelerate construction of a new pipeline to its port in Fujairah, just outside the strait, after a vessel bound for it was sunk that week and another was boarded and redirected to Iran.
Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Tehran had received messages from Washington indicating a willingness to continue talking. "We hope that, with the advancement of negotiations, we will reach a good conclusion so that the Strait of Hormuz can be completely secured," he told reporters in New Delhi. Yet he also made clear Iran's skepticism. The country did not trust the Americans, he said, noting that previous rounds of talks had been curtailed when the US launched air strikes. Iran was preparing for both diplomacy and renewed fighting. State media reported that more than 31 million Iranians had signed up for a campaign demonstrating public readiness to defend the country, and the government had begun weapons courses for pro-government volunteers.
The human cost of the conflict was severe and largely absent from the diplomatic choreography. Thousands of Iranians had been killed during the US and Israeli air strikes. Thousands more had died in renewed fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed group, in Lebanon. On Friday, the US State Department announced that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to extend a fragile ceasefire for 45 days—it had been set to expire on Sunday. But Hezbollah opposed the talks, particularly Israel's insistence on the group's disarmament.
Talks between Iran and the US had stalled since the previous week, when each side rejected the other's latest proposals. For Trump, the conflict had become a liability ahead of congressional elections in November. For China, the calculus was more complex. Analysts doubted Xi would push Iran hard or withdraw military support, given Iran's value as a strategic counterweight to American power. Beijing had dismissed reports of plans to supply weapons to Iran as "groundless smears." What remained unclear was whether China would use its considerable influence with Tehran to break the deadlock—or whether it preferred to watch the US and Iran exhaust each other.
Citas Notables
This conflict, which should never have happened, has no reason to continue— China's foreign ministry
I am not going to be much more patient. They should make a deal— Donald Trump, on Fox News' Hannity
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why would Trump think Xi would actually pressure Iran, given what we know about China's strategic interests?
Because Trump believes leverage is transactional. He thinks the threat of sanctions relief on Chinese oil companies is enough to buy cooperation. But Xi has something Trump doesn't fully account for: Iran as a counterweight. Pushing too hard on Tehran costs China more than it gains.
So China is essentially sitting this out?
Not quite. The foreign ministry statement was blunt—they said the war shouldn't have happened. That's not nothing. But there's a difference between expressing frustration and using your influence to end something. China is signaling displeasure without risking its relationship with Iran.
What about the economic pressure? Oil at $109, markets nervous—doesn't that force China's hand?
It should, theoretically. But China has weathered sanctions before. And a prolonged conflict that weakens the US position in the Middle East isn't entirely unwelcome to Beijing. The pain is real, but not necessarily unbearable.
Trump said he won't ask for favors. What did he mean by that?
He was deflecting. When you ask another country to pressure a third country on your behalf, you do owe something in return. Trump wanted to avoid that debt. But by not asking directly, he also can't claim Xi promised anything concrete.
Is there any chance Iran actually reopens the strait?
Only if the blockade ends first, according to Tehran. And Trump won't end it without a deal on nuclear research. It's a loop. Both sides are preparing for more fighting while saying they want to talk. That's the real story—the words are diplomatic, but the actions are military.