Trump privately considers Iran exit without nuclear deal if Hormuz reopens

Potential shift from confrontational nuclear diplomacy to transactional maritime/economic negotiation. Iran leveraging Hormuz chokepoint (30% global oil transit) as bargaining chip. U.S. willingness to decouple nuclear issue from broader conflict signals weakened negotiating position or strategic recalibration. Regional allies (Gulf states) may feel sidelined if bilateral U.S.-Iran deal emerges.

Similar to 1987 Tanker War negotiations where maritime commerce became central to Iran-U.S. de-escalation, though current demands are more expansive and ideologically charged.

Potential relief from elevated oil prices if Hormuz reopens, reducing energy costs for households and businesses. However, prolonged negotiations create price volatility and uncertainty. Consumers face near-term energy price stability risks until agreement clarity emerges.

Potential shift in U.S. Iran strategy away from nuclear-focused negotiations toward pragmatic energy corridor diplomacy. May require Congressional approval for sanctions relief and military repositioning. Could trigger allied concerns (Israel, Gulf states) regarding security commitments and regional balance of power.