If they don't behave, we go back to bombing
U.S. and Iran remotely signed an MOU ending military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, with Iran permitted to export oil immediately and the Strait of Hormuz reopening. The deal is not final; Trump emphasized it's a roadmap for 60-day negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, with threats of resumed military action if terms aren't met.
- U.S. and Iran remotely signed a memorandum of understanding ending military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, with Iran permitted to export oil immediately
- The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global crude oil and LNG transited before the war, is set to reopen under Iranian management for 60 days
- One Israeli soldier killed and seven wounded in Lebanon fighting; Lebanon reports over 3,800 deaths from Israeli operations; tens of thousands displaced
- 60-day timeline for negotiating a comprehensive nuclear agreement; Trump warned he could resume bombing if Iran doesn't comply
- Asian markets surged on ceasefire hopes; Brent crude fell 1.6% to $78.31 per barrel; commercial shipping through the strait remains near-frozen pending clarity on agreement terms
President Trump formally signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran to end military operations and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a 60-day timeline for a comprehensive nuclear agreement. Trump warned he could resume bombing if Iran doesn't comply.
President Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran on Wednesday, marking the first formal step toward ending a war that had consumed the Middle East for 110 days. The two leaders—Trump attending the G7 summit in France, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran—executed the agreement remotely, and within hours a White House official confirmed it was already in effect. The document itself remained largely secret. Vice President JD Vance promised the full text would be released by Friday "at the latest," but mediators from Qatar and Pakistan had asked the administration to hold off. What little was known came from senior U.S. officials who read 14 points of the agreement to reporters on an anonymous call: both sides agreed to an immediate and permanent end to military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon. Iran could begin exporting oil as soon as the ink dried. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas had flowed before the war, would reopen under Iranian stewardship for 60 days.
Trump framed the deal as a temporary ceasefire, not a settlement. He told reporters in France that the memorandum was "not a final deal" and that he could order new strikes if Iran's leaders "don't behave." When asked directly whether he would resume bombing if negotiations stalled, he was blunt: "If it doesn't get done in 60 days, that's all right. We go back to bombing." Later, speaking more casually, he said the timeline wasn't "hard"—talks could stretch longer "just as long as they're behaving." The nuclear question, which had animated U.S.-Iran relations for two decades, remained unresolved. Trump said he was comfortable with Iran possessing some ballistic missiles, provided other regional powers had them too. He did not say Iran's nuclear enrichment program would be dismantled, only that the U.S. would "never let them have a nuclear weapon." The specifics of how that would be enforced, or what Iran would receive in return for compliance, remained opaque.
The agreement's shadow fell immediately across Lebanon. Israeli forces had occupied large swaths of southern Lebanon for three and a half months, and Israeli officials said they would stay. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that any continued Israeli presence or attacks would constitute a violation of the U.S.-Iran deal. On Wednesday, the same day the memorandum took effect, Israeli warplanes struck targets in southern Lebanon anyway—airstrikes on Nabatieh al-Fawqa, Kfar Tebnit, and the town of Ansariyeh. The Israeli military also announced that one soldier, Master Sergeant Alexander Filin, 29, had been killed in fighting the day before, with seven others wounded. Israel's far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir declared flatly: "Trump's agreement does not bind us." Lebanon's president, Joseph Aoun, insisted his country's negotiations with Israel were independent of the U.S.-Iran deal, but the contradiction was stark. The war had already killed more than 3,800 people in Lebanon and displaced tens of thousands from their homes.
Markets responded with euphoria. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 surged 1.9 percent to 71,233, topping 70,000 for the first time that week. South Korea's benchmark gained 0.6 percent. Oil prices fell sharply—Brent crude dropped 1.6 percent to $78.31 a barrel, well below the $100-plus prices of recent weeks. The retreat from Wall Street on Wednesday, driven by Federal Reserve projections of possible interest rate increases, gave way to optimism about inflation relief. Five Qatari liquefied natural gas tankers, empty and waiting, changed course from Asia and Africa and headed back toward the Persian Gulf, betting that the Strait of Hormuz would soon be open for business. QatarEnergy said it could return to full production within a month.
Yet confusion reigned at sea. Trump had announced on Sunday that he would "authorize the immediate removal" of the U.S. naval blockade, then said the blockade would only lift after Friday's signing. A multilateral naval command said Monday the blockade remained in place. By Tuesday, a senior Iranian diplomat claimed it had already been lifted. Tracking data showed at least five sanctioned Iranian-flagged vessels crossing the blockade line since Trump's initial announcement—three crude oil tankers, one bulk carrier, and a container ship, all departing from the southern Iranian port of Chabahar. Commercial traffic through the strait, however, remained sparse: single-digit vessel counts compared to a historic average of 135 per day. Major shipping companies said they would wait for clarity and safety assurances before resuming normal operations. Jakob Larsen, head of safety and security at BIMCO, one of the world's largest shipping associations, said the situation remained "very risky" until the agreement's terms were fully disclosed.
Trump used the G7 summit to tout the deal as a diplomatic triumph. He said fellow leaders were "thrilled that we made a deal, every one of them" and praised the agreement as a chance to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and to reopen vital shipping lanes. The G7 statement itself called the deal a "breakthrough" and an "historic opportunity," secured under Trump's "strong leadership." Pope Leo XIV, the first U.S.-born leader of the Catholic Church, praised it as an "encouraging result of patient work in dialogue and negotiation." Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a longtime Iran hawk, said he was "pretty skeptical" but willing to "wait and see," reserving judgment until the 60-day negotiation period played out.
The memorandum was set to be formally signed in person Friday at the Burgenstock mountain resort in Switzerland, where the two sides would begin drafting a comprehensive nuclear agreement. Vice President Vance said the deal offered Iran economic benefits—sanctions relief, reintegration into global markets—but only if Tehran fundamentally changed its behavior: stopping funding for terrorist groups, abandoning nuclear weapons ambitions, transforming its relationship with the United States and the region. Trump, however, had already signaled flexibility. He said the 60-day deadline was not immovable, that he did not mind Iran possessing ballistic missiles, and that he would clarify later whether the deal included immediate sanctions relief. The war had paused, but the terms of a lasting peace remained to be written.
Citas Notables
The memorandum is not a final deal, and the U.S. could resume bombing Iran if they don't behave.— President Trump
Trump's agreement does not bind us.— Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir
Due to lack of details and a history of overly optimistic reassurances, we believe the security situation for the shipping industry remains volatile, and we still consider it very risky for ships to commence transits at this point.— Jakob Larsen, head of safety and security at BIMCO
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
What exactly did Trump and Iran sign, if the text is still secret?
A roadmap, really. Fourteen points that stop the fighting immediately and let Iran sell oil again. The Strait of Hormuz reopens. But the nuclear question—what Iran actually agrees to give up, what it gets in return—that's all still being negotiated over the next 60 days.
So Trump could just resume bombing if he doesn't like how talks are going?
That's what he said, yes. He was very explicit about it. "If they don't behave, we go back to bombing." But he also said the 60-day timeline isn't hard, that talks could take longer. He seems to be keeping his options open.
What about Israel? They're still striking Lebanon.
That's the fracture line. Iran says Israeli troops staying in Lebanon violates the deal. Israel says the deal doesn't bind them. On the same day the memorandum took effect, Israeli planes were still hitting targets in the south. One Israeli soldier was killed. The agreement is supposed to end fighting on all fronts, but it's not clear anyone agreed on what that means.
Why are shipping companies so nervous if the deal is done?
Because they don't know the real terms. The agreement is secret. Oil tankers are starting to cross the blockade line, but commercial shipping is still nearly frozen. Companies want assurances before they risk their vessels. One shipping executive said the situation is "very risky" until details are clear.
Did the markets believe this was real?
They did, at least for a day. Oil prices fell, Asian stock markets surged. But that's partly because people are hoping. The fundamentals—whether Iran actually gives up its nuclear program, whether Israel actually leaves Lebanon—those are still unknown.
What's Trump's actual position on Iran's nuclear capability?
Ambiguous. He said he won't let Iran have nuclear weapons, but he also said he's fine with Iran having ballistic missiles if other regional powers have them too. He pulled out of the Obama-era nuclear deal calling it disastrous, but now he's negotiating something similar. He's keeping leverage by refusing to commit to anything final.