Either a great deal for everyone or no deal—and we return to war
Em meio a negociações nucleares com o Irã, Donald Trump não apenas reivindica avanços substanciais — ele os condiciona a uma reconfiguração diplomática de toda a região do Oriente Médio. A exigência de que nações como Arábia Saudita, Turquia e Paquistão adiram aos Acordos de Abraão transforma uma negociação bilateral em uma aposta geopolítica de proporções históricas. Teerã reconhece progresso, mas adverte que o caminho até um acordo ainda é longo — e o abismo entre o otimismo de Washington e a cautela iraniana revela o quanto de incerteza ainda habita esse processo.
- Trump declarou que a maioria dos pontos do acordo com o Irã já está negociada, mas recuou no dia seguinte, dizendo não haver pressa — sinalizando uma postura deliberadamente ambígua.
- A ameaça de escalada militar caso as negociações fracassem pesa sobre o processo como uma sombra constante, elevando os riscos de qualquer impasse.
- O porta-voz do Ministério das Relações Exteriores iraniano contradisse o otimismo americano, confirmando progresso em vários pontos, mas alertando que distâncias significativas ainda separam as partes de um acordo.
- Trump vinculou o desfecho das negociações nucleares à adesão regional aos Acordos de Abraão, transformando o acordo com o Irã em moeda de troca para um realinhamento diplomático mais amplo.
- Países como Arábia Saudita, Turquia, Qatar, Paquistão, Jordânia e Egito foram nomeados como alvos dessa pressão — alguns sem qualquer histórico de aproximação com Israel.
Donald Trump anunciou no Truth Social que as negociações com o Irã avançam de forma substancial, mas sua leitura otimista colidiu com a avaliação mais sóbria dos próprios diplomatas iranianos. O presidente americano enquadrou as conversas em termos binários: ou um acordo abrangente emerge, ou os dois países retornam ao confronto militar — e esse confronto, ele advertiu, seria mais intenso do que qualquer coisa já vista.
A cronologia das declarações de Trump revelou uma postura oscilante. No sábado, ele sugeriu que a maioria dos pontos substantivos já estava resolvida; no domingo, recuou, dizendo não haver pressa. O porta-voz do Ministério das Relações Exteriores iraniano, Esmaeil Baghaei, ofereceu uma leitura mais cautelosa: houve progresso em diversas questões, mas uma distância considerável ainda separa as partes de qualquer assinatura.
O que tornou o movimento de Trump verdadeiramente singular foi a condição que ele anexou às negociações. Durante uma conversa com líderes do Oriente Médio, ele pediu que todos os governos da região aderissem simultaneamente aos Acordos de Abraão — o marco diplomático de seu primeiro mandato que estabeleceu relações formais entre estados árabes e Israel. Os Acordos nasceram em 2020, quando Emirados Árabes Unidos e Bahrein normalizaram laços com Israel; Sudão, Marrocos e Cazaquistão se seguiram.
Agora Trump pressionava por uma expansão ainda mais ambiciosa, nomeando Arábia Saudita, Qatar, Paquistão, Turquia, Jordânia e Egito como nações que deveriam se comprometer com os acordos. Ele admitiu que uma ou duas exceções seriam toleradas, mas insistiu que a maioria deveria estar disposta a transformar qualquer entendimento com o Irã em algo de peso histórico muito maior.
A vinculação era deliberada: Trump estava essencialmente dizendo aos governos regionais que sua participação nos Acordos de Abraão havia se tornado pré-requisito para que os Estados Unidos finalizassem um acordo nuclear com o Irã. Era uma forma de usar as negociações com Teerã para avançar uma estratégia mais ampla de realinhamento regional — com Israel no centro dos interesses árabes e como contrapeso ao poder iraniano. Se o Irã aceitaria tais condições, ou se os estados regionais cederiam à pressão de Washington, permanecia uma questão em aberto.
Donald Trump declared on Truth Social that negotiations with Iran are moving forward substantially, though his characterization of progress clashed sharply with statements from Tehran's own diplomats. The American president framed the talks in stark terms: either a comprehensive agreement would emerge, or the two nations would return to military confrontation—and that confrontation, he warned, would be fiercer than anything seen before. No one wants that outcome, he added.
The timing of Trump's optimism was curious. Just days earlier, on Saturday, he had suggested that most of the substantive points in an Iran accord were already settled. By the following day, however, he walked that back, insisting there was no rush to finalize anything with Tehran. The Iranian foreign ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, offered a more measured assessment: the two sides had made progress on numerous issues, but significant distance remained before any agreement could be signed.
What made Trump's latest move distinctive was not merely his confidence about Iran talks, but the condition he attached to them. During a Saturday conversation with Middle Eastern leaders, Trump requested that all regional governments simultaneously sign the Abraham Accords—the diplomatic framework he had championed during his first term to establish formal relations between Arab states and Israel. He argued that after the considerable effort the United States had invested in assembling this extraordinarily intricate arrangement, it should be mandatory for every country in the region to join.
The Abraham Accords themselves were born from Trump's first presidency. In 2020, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain became the first Arab nations to normalize ties with Israel under this framework. The initiative was designed partly to strengthen a regional coalition capable of countering Iranian influence. Since then, Sudan, Morocco, and Kazakhstan have also signed on.
Now Trump was pushing for expansion. He specifically named Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Jordan, and Egypt—the latter already maintaining diplomatic relations with Israel—as nations that should commit to the accords. He acknowledged that one or two countries might have reasons to abstain, and he said such exceptions would be tolerated. But the majority, he insisted, should be prepared and willing to transform whatever agreement emerged with Iran into something far more historically significant than it would otherwise be.
The linkage Trump was constructing was deliberate and consequential. He was essentially telling Middle Eastern governments that their participation in the Abraham Accords had become a prerequisite for the United States to finalize a nuclear accord with Iran. It was a way of leveraging the Iran negotiations to advance his broader regional realignment strategy—one that positioned Israel at the center of Arab state interests and created a counterweight to Iranian power. Whether Tehran would accept such conditions, or whether the regional states would comply with Trump's request, remained an open question as the talks continued.
Notable Quotes
After all the work done by the US to assemble this extremely complex puzzle, it should be mandatory that all countries sign the Abraham Accords simultaneously— Trump, Truth Social post
The two countries have advanced on many issues in negotiations, but remain far from signing any agreement— Esmaeil Baghaei, Iranian foreign ministry spokesman
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Trump keep changing his story about how close these Iran talks actually are?
He's managing expectations in both directions. On Saturday he signals momentum to show progress to his allies. By Sunday he's tempering it so he doesn't look desperate or trapped by a deadline. It keeps him flexible.
But what's the real state of the negotiations?
Iran's foreign ministry is being more honest about it—they say progress exists but there are still major gaps. Trump's framing is political theater layered over genuine diplomacy.
So why tie the Iran deal to the Abraham Accords at all?
Because he wants to reshape the entire region's architecture. An Iran deal alone is just a nuclear agreement. But if he can get Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and others to formally align with Israel while simultaneously constraining Iran, he's built something much larger.
Is that realistic? Would Saudi Arabia really sign on?
That's the gamble. Saudi Arabia has been cautious, protective of its relationship with Iran. But Trump is betting that the threat of a better Iran deal—or the fear of a worse one—will push them toward the accords.
And if they refuse?
Then the whole structure collapses. The Iran deal stays unsigned, the regional realignment stalls, and Trump has to decide whether to follow through on his threat of military escalation or accept a smaller diplomatic win.