If we don't make a deal, millions more people will die
Quase quatro anos após o início da guerra na Ucrânia, três líderes — americano, russo e ucraniano — encontram-se num momento raro de convergência diplomática. Em Mar-a-Lago, Trump declarou que as negociações de paz estão nas fases finais, depois de uma chamada com Putin e de uma reunião com Zelensky, que chegou com uma proposta reformulada que abandona duas exigências históricas de Moscovo. A humanidade aguarda para saber se este momento representa uma viragem genuína ou apenas o teatro da diplomacia.
- Trump avisa que, sem acordo, a guerra pode prolongar-se indefinidamente e custar milhões de vidas — uma pressão moral que paira sobre todas as conversações.
- A Ucrânia reformulou a sua proposta de paz, abandonando duas condições centrais do Kremlin: a retirada de tropas de Donetsk e a renúncia formal à NATO, sinalizando uma cedência estratégica significativa.
- A sequência diplomática acelerou: chamada Trump-Putin, reunião Trump-Zelensky em Mar-a-Lago, e um novo contacto entre Trump e Putin já acordado para breve.
- As garantias de segurança para a Ucrânia prometidas por Trump incluem envolvimento europeu, mas os detalhes concretos permanecem por revelar.
- A pergunta que ninguém consegue ainda responder é se este ritmo acelerado reflete paz iminente ou apenas a encenação de um processo ainda frágil.
Numa tarde de domingo de finais de dezembro, Donald Trump declarou em Mar-a-Lago que a guerra na Ucrânia — iniciada com a invasão russa há quase quatro anos — estava a aproximar-se do fim. Horas antes, tinha falado ao telefone com Vladimir Putin. Agora, com Volodymyr Zelensky ao seu lado antes de entrarem em conversações privadas, Trump afirmou que um acordo de paz poderia surgir "muito rapidamente".
A mensagem foi direta: "Estamos nas fases finais das discussões. Se não chegarmos a um acordo, a guerra vai continuar por muito tempo e milhões de pessoas vão morrer." Questionado sobre se Putin realmente queria a paz — sobretudo depois de bombardeamentos recentes em Kiev —, Trump mostrou-se confiante, sugerindo que o cansaço mútuo poderia finalmente inclinar a balança para um entendimento.
Zelensky chegou à Florida com uma proposta reformulada. O plano original, apresentado por Washington semanas antes, tinha sido considerado demasiado favorável às exigências russas. A nova versão abandonava dois pontos centrais do Kremlin: a retirada das forças ucranianas de Donetsk e um compromisso juridicamente vinculativo de renúncia à NATO — concessões que durante anos definiram a posição de Moscovo.
Trump garantiu que qualquer acordo incluiria garantias de segurança robustas para a Ucrânia, com envolvimento ativo dos países europeus, embora sem detalhar prazos ou mecanismos concretos. O porta-voz do Kremlin, Dmitry Peskov, confirmou a chamada entre Trump e Putin — a primeira desde meados de outubro — e revelou que os dois líderes acordaram falar novamente após o encontro com Zelensky.
Se este ritmo diplomático acelerado representa uma aproximação real à paz ou apenas a aparência dela, é ainda uma questão em aberto. O que é certo é que três presidentes estão agora ativamente envolvidos em conversações sobre como encerrar um conflito que remodelou a Europa e ceifou centenas de milhares de vidas. A próxima chamada entre Trump e Putin será o verdadeiro teste ao significado destas "fases finais".
Donald Trump stood at Mar-a-Lago on a Sunday afternoon in late December and declared that the war in Ukraine—nearly four years old, born from Russia's initial invasion—was approaching its conclusion. He had just spoken by phone with Vladimir Putin hours earlier. Now, with Volodymyr Zelensky at his side before they entered closed-door talks at his Florida residence, Trump said a peace agreement could materialize "very rapidly."
The stakes, as Trump framed them, were stark. "We're in the final stages of discussion," he told reporters. "If we don't make a deal, the war will go on for a long time and millions more people will die." It was a blunt calculus: negotiate now or watch the death toll climb indefinitely. When pressed on whether Putin genuinely wanted peace—a reasonable question given that Russian forces had recently bombarded Kyiv—Trump expressed confidence that Moscow was committed. He also noted, without elaboration, that Ukraine had struck Russian targets as well, suggesting a mutual exhaustion that might finally tip toward settlement.
The security architecture of any deal, Trump insisted, would be substantial. "There will be security guarantees. They will be robust. And the European countries are very involved," he said. He offered no timeline for completion, only a singular objective: ending the war. The meeting between Trump and Zelensky concluded around 9 p.m. local time, leaving the substance of their discussion to speculation.
Hours before that encounter, Trump had spoken with Putin—their first conversation since mid-October. The Kremlin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, confirmed the call and noted that Middle Eastern affairs had also been discussed, though he provided no further detail. What mattered more was what came next: Trump and Putin had agreed to speak again after the Zelensky meeting, a signal that the diplomatic machinery was still turning.
Zelensky arrived at Mar-a-Lago seeking Trump's approval for a revised peace proposal that Ukraine had reformulated over the preceding weeks. The original plan, presented by Washington nearly a month earlier, had struck Kyiv as too accommodating to Russian demands. The new version represented a significant shift. It abandoned two core Kremlin objectives: the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donetsk and a legally binding commitment by Ukraine to forgo NATO membership. These were not minor concessions—they were the removal of conditions that had long defined Moscow's negotiating position.
The timing suggested momentum, or at least the appearance of it. Trump's confidence that a deal was near, his recent conversation with Putin, Zelensky's arrival with a revised proposal, and the agreement for another Trump-Putin call all pointed toward a diplomatic process that had accelerated. Whether that acceleration reflected genuine movement toward peace or merely the theater of negotiation remained unclear. What was certain was that three men—one American president, one Russian president, and one Ukrainian president—were now actively engaged in conversations about how to end a war that had reshaped Europe and cost hundreds of thousands of lives. The next phone call between Trump and Putin would be the test of whether the final stages truly meant what they suggested.
Citações Notáveis
We're in the final stages of discussion and if we don't make a deal, the war will go on for a long time and millions more people will die— Donald Trump
There will be security guarantees. They will be robust. And the European countries are very involved— Donald Trump
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
When Trump says the deal is in "final stages," what does that actually mean? Is there a draft agreement on the table?
Not necessarily. It could mean they're close on framework, or it could mean Trump believes they're close. The Ukrainian revision—dropping those two Kremlin demands—suggests real movement, but "final stages" in diplomacy often means there are still major gaps.
Why would Ukraine suddenly drop the NATO membership restriction? That seems like a core national interest.
Because the alternative, in their calculation, is more war and more death. Trump's warning about millions dying if negotiations fail isn't abstract—it's pressure. Zelensky is betting that security guarantees from the West and Europe can substitute for NATO's formal protection.
But can they? Can guarantees really replace NATO membership?
That's the gamble. NATO is a legal treaty with automatic collective defense. Guarantees are political promises. They're only as strong as the countries making them, and those countries can change their minds.
Trump mentioned that Ukraine has also attacked Russia. Why bring that up?
To establish equivalence. If both sides are fighting, both sides should be willing to stop. It's a way of saying neither side has clean hands, so both should compromise.
What happens if Putin doesn't actually want peace, despite what Trump believes?
Then we're back where we started. But Trump has leverage now—he's the incoming president, and Putin may calculate that dealing with Trump is better than dealing with a Democratic administration later. That window might not stay open long.
The agreement to speak again after the Zelensky meeting—is that significant?
Very. It means they're not waiting weeks between conversations. It means the pace is accelerating. Whether that leads to a deal or just more talk is the question.