They're going to make more money than ever
Desde su residencia en Mar-a-Lago, Donald Trump trazó el sábado un mapa de ambiciones diplomáticas que abarca Irán, Venezuela y Cuba, confiando en que la presión —naval, petrolera y económica— puede sustituir a la paciencia. En su visión, la fortaleza genera velocidad: los barcos más poderosos del mundo acercan un acuerdo con Irán, el petróleo venezolano alinea intereses antes enfrentados, y el embargo energético obliga a La Habana a negociar. Es una diplomacia de palancas, donde la urgencia del otro lado de la mesa se convierte en el principal activo negociador.
- Trump afirma que un acuerdo con Irán podría cerrarse en cuestión de días, respaldado por la presencia naval estadounidense en la región como señal de fuerza implícita.
- En Venezuela, propone una reconciliación entre el chavismo y la oposición mientras el país abre sus reservas petroleras al sector privado estadounidense, mezclando política y negocio en una misma ecuación.
- El embargo petrolero a Cuba genera alarma humanitaria: la presidenta mexicana Claudia Sheinbaum advierte de una crisis real, mientras Trump la descarta como una presión calculada que forzará a La Habana a sentarse a negociar.
- Presos políticos venezolanos esperan una amnistía que aún no tiene forma concreta, y cubanos en el exilio aguardan un retorno que Trump promete pero no detalla.
- La lógica subyacente es mecánica: presión aplicada, resistencia que cede, acuerdo que sigue —sin que las poblaciones atrapadas en ese proceso figuren en el cálculo público.
El sábado, Donald Trump llegó a Mar-a-Lago con la seguridad de quien cree tener el tablero bajo control. En pocos días, anticipó a los periodistas, esperaba cerrar un acuerdo con Irán. La razón era sencilla: Estados Unidos había desplegado sus buques más poderosos en la región, una presencia que no necesitaba explicación. La fuerza, en su lógica, genera velocidad.
Venezuela ocupaba otro capítulo de esa misma ambición hemisférica. Trump habló de reunir al gobierno chavista y a la oposición, elogió a María Corina Machado como 'una gran persona' y, en el mismo aliento, alabó al liderazgo venezolano actual. No ofreció detalles sobre cómo se produciría ese acercamiento ni si alguna de las partes había aceptado la propuesta. Lo que sí quedó claro fue el motor económico: Venezuela había reformado su ley de hidrocarburos para abrir la extracción petrolera a empresas privadas, lo que daría a intereses estadounidenses acceso directo a sus vastas reservas. 'Van a ganar más dinero que nunca', dijo Trump. El Wall Street Journal informó por separado que la Casa Blanca planea exigir elecciones venezolanas en un plazo de dieciocho meses a dos años.
Cuba presentaba una variante más cruda de la misma estrategia. La administración Trump había comenzado a restringir los envíos de petróleo a la isla, una medida que la presidenta mexicana Claudia Sheinbaum calificó de potencial detonante de una crisis humanitaria. Trump lo descartó: Cuba vendría a negociar, empujada por la escasez de combustible. Aseguró estar ya en contacto con personas 'en las más altas esferas' del gobierno cubano, y prometió trabajar por el retorno de los cubanos que huyeron del régimen.
Cuando se le preguntó si el embargo podría provocar el sufrimiento que Sheinbaum advertía, Trump fue escueto: 'No tiene por qué ser una crisis humanitaria'. La presión se aplica, la resistencia cede, el acuerdo llega. Una aritmética limpia, casi mecánica, en la que las personas atrapadas entre esas fuerzas no formaron parte del cálculo que articuló en voz alta.
Donald Trump arrived at his Mar-a-Lago residence on Saturday with a confident assessment of his diplomatic reach. Within days—perhaps just a couple, he suggested to waiting reporters—he expected to have an agreement with Iran locked in place. The leverage, he explained, was straightforward: the United States had positioned "the biggest and most powerful ships in the world" nearby, close enough to make the point without saying it directly. Speed, in his view, would follow from strength.
But Iran was only one thread in a larger tapestry of hemispheric ambition. When asked about Venezuela's political future, Trump outlined a vision of reconciliation between the government and its opposition. He spoke warmly of María Corina Machado, the opposition leader, calling her "a great person." Yet he also praised the current Venezuelan leadership for doing "a very good job." The path forward, he suggested, lay in bringing both sides together—though he offered no specifics on how that might happen or whether either party had agreed to such talks.
Oil was the currency driving much of this calculation. Venezuela had recently reformed its hydrocarbon law to open petroleum extraction to private companies, a shift that would give American interests direct access to the country's vast reserves. Trump was explicit about the arithmetic: the United States would take its share, Venezuela would take theirs, and both would prosper. "They're going to make more money than ever," he said. The Wall Street Journal had separately reported that the White House was planning to call for Venezuelan elections within eighteen months to two years—a timeline that suggested confidence in the direction of political change.
Cuba presented a different kind of pressure. The Trump administration had begun restricting oil shipments to the island, a tightening that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum had warned could trigger a humanitarian crisis. Trump dismissed the concern. Cuba, he predicted, would eventually come to the United States seeking a deal, driven by fuel shortages into negotiation. He was already, he said, in contact with "people in the highest spheres" of the Cuban government. His stated goal included securing the return of Cubans who had fled to the United States and, in his telling, been "treated horribly" by the regime.
When pressed on whether oil restrictions might actually produce the humanitarian suffering Sheinbaum had flagged, Trump was dismissive. "It doesn't have to be a humanitarian crisis," he said. The Cubans would simply come to the table. They would want their country to be free again. They would make a deal. The logic was clean, almost mechanical—pressure applied, resistance crumbles, agreement follows. Whether the people caught between those forces saw it the same way was not part of the calculation he articulated.
Citas Notables
I'd love to be able to do something about the situation in Venezuela and perhaps unite the parties to accomplish something. I think she's a great person, but at the same time I think the current leader is doing a very good job.— Donald Trump, on María Corina Machado and Venezuelan reconciliation
It doesn't have to be a humanitarian crisis. I think they would probably come to us and want to reach a deal so Cuba could be free again.— Donald Trump, on oil restrictions and Cuban negotiations
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
You're saying Trump believes military presence alone can compress months of negotiation into days. What does that actually mean in practice?
It means he's betting that the threat of force—or the visible readiness to use it—eliminates the need for the slow work of diplomacy. The ships aren't there to fire; they're there to make talking seem like the rational choice.
And on Venezuela, he's proposing unity between a government and an opposition that have been at each other's throats. How does that work?
It doesn't, probably. But it gives him cover. He can say he tried to broker peace while also ensuring American companies get access to the oil. Both sides can claim he's on their side.
The Cuba piece feels different—he's explicitly using scarcity as a weapon.
Exactly. He's not hiding it. He's saying: no fuel, no choice. Eventually you'll negotiate. It's coercion dressed up as inevitability.
And if it does create a humanitarian crisis?
Then he's already said it won't. He's foreclosed the possibility by definition. If people suffer, it's because they chose not to deal, not because he chose to restrict the oil.