China watched what happened to Russia and began protecting itself.
Donald Trump arrived in Beijing carrying the weight of a trade war he himself ignited, seeking to negotiate with a China that has spent years quietly preparing for exactly this moment. The visit, brief and ceremonially precise, unfolded against a backdrop of tariffs that had climbed as high as 145 percent before a fragile truce brought them back down, leaving both nations in a wary, unresolved embrace. Thousands of miles away, Brazil watched with the particular anxiety of a country whose prosperity depends not on friendship between giants, but on their perpetual, productive rivalry. What was once a relationship defined by American leverage has become something more symmetrical — and more uncertain.
- Tariffs between the US and China spiraled into the hundreds of percent within weeks, a rapid escalation that rattled global supply chains before a fragile May truce pulled both sides back from the edge.
- China did not simply retaliate with matching tariffs — it restricted exports of rare earth minerals and battery components, signaling a strategic depth that went far beyond a trade dispute.
- Since watching Russia get cut off from the global banking system in 2022, China has been quietly offloading US Treasury bonds, buying gold, and building yuan-based financial infrastructure to insulate itself from American economic pressure.
- Trump arrived in Beijing with a packed agenda and a thin schedule — six of his available hours already reserved for Middle East war discussions — leaving little room to extract the concessions he came for.
- Brazil's agricultural sector faces a quiet threat: if Trump succeeds in redirecting Chinese purchases toward American suppliers, Brazilian farmers could lose one of their most vital markets, prompting officials to rush diplomats and trade envoys into the field.
- The visit landed not as a show of American strength but as a portrait of shifting power — China receiving its guest with ceremony while no longer looking to Washington for either approval or direction.
Donald Trump touched down in Beijing on a Wednesday evening to a choreographed welcome — red carpet, military band, flag-waving youth — but the atmosphere was nothing like his 2017 visit, when China had offered him a private tour of the Forbidden City and a Peking Opera performance. This time he came with a business delegation, a compressed schedule, and a country that had spent years quietly recalibrating its relationship with American power.
The stakes of the visit extended well beyond the two nations in the room. Brazil, whose two largest trading partners are China and the United States, stood to lose significantly if the trip produced a genuine rapprochement. Trump's underlying goal was to convince Xi Jinping to redirect Chinese agricultural purchases — currently flowing to Brazilian farms — toward American suppliers instead. Brazil's agriculture minister and trade envoys were already moving through China, not hoping for harmony between the superpowers, but for a managed tension that would keep both sides competing for Brazilian goods.
The tariff war that preceded the visit had been swift and brutal. After Trump announced sweeping global tariffs in April, China and the US traded escalating blows until Chinese goods faced a 145 percent tariff — the highest levied against any nation. The spiral lasted only weeks before a May negotiation suspended hostilities, dropping American tariffs to 30 percent and Chinese tariffs to 10 percent. But the damage, and the lesson, had already been absorbed.
China's response had gone deeper than matching numbers. It restricted exports of rare earth minerals and battery components critical to American industry, and it accelerated a longer financial strategy set in motion on February 24, 2022 — the day the Biden administration cut Russia off from the global banking system following the invasion of Ukraine. China watched what happened to Moscow and began building its own defenses. It sold down its holdings of US Treasury bonds from over one trillion dollars to roughly seven hundred billion, bought gold, and expanded its capacity to conduct international trade in yuan. The effect was a slow but meaningful erosion of dollar dominance in global finance.
By the time Trump arrived, he found a China that no longer measured itself against American approval. His schedule allowed for meetings, a dinner, tea, and a closing photograph — but not for the kind of sustained negotiation that the months of tariff escalation might have warranted. The leverage he once held had diminished, and the welcome, though ceremonially correct, carried none of the deference of years past.
Donald Trump stepped off Air Force One in Beijing on a Wednesday evening to a scene of careful ceremony—red carpet, military band, honor guard, and three hundred young people waving flags in unison. It was a far cry from his first visit to China in 2017, when he was led through the Forbidden City for a private four-hour tour that ended with a performance of Peking Opera. This time, he arrived with a delegation of businessmen, a tighter schedule, and a country that no longer looked at America with quite the same mixture of envy and deference.
The visit mattered most to people who had never set foot in China. Brazil, sitting on the other side of the world, stood to lose considerably if the two superpowers left Beijing as friends. China and the United States are Brazil's two largest trading partners, and Trump's real agenda was straightforward: convince Xi Jinping to buy from American suppliers what China currently purchases from Brazilian farms. The Brazilian agriculture minister was already on his way to China. The head of the country's export promotion agency was already inland, working to open new markets for Brazilian beef. What Brazil's representatives actually hoped for, according to reporting from the ground, was not harmony between the two powers but rather a controlled rivalry—tension enough to keep both sides bidding for Brazilian goods, but not so much chaos that the entire system broke.
The tariff war that had brought Trump to Beijing had been ferocious. In April, Trump announced a global tariff increase. China was hit with 34 percent and retaliated with 34 percent. Trump raised it to 84 percent. China matched him. Trump went to 125 percent. China did the same. Then came an additional 20 percent surcharge on Chinese goods alone—Trump's stated punishment for fentanyl trafficking. The total tariff on Chinese products reached 145 percent, the highest applied to any nation. The escalation lasted only weeks. By May, the first round of negotiations suspended the trade war. American tariffs dropped to 30 percent. Chinese tariffs fell to 10 percent. Since then, the two countries had been negotiating in fits and starts, working toward something more stable.
But China had done more than simply match Trump's numbers. The government restricted exports and imports of materials critical to American companies—battery components, rare earth minerals, other essential products. The strategy suggested something deeper than tit-for-tat retaliation. According to Zongyuan Liu, an economist at Columbia University, the shift in China's approach traced back to a single date: February 24, 2022. That was when the Biden administration, responding to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, excluded Moscow from the global banking communications system and attempted to cut Russia off from dollar transactions. China watched what happened to Russia and began protecting itself.
The protection took concrete form. China started selling off American Treasury bonds—the IOUs that the United States issues when it needs to borrow money. China had once held over one trillion dollars in these bonds. Now it held close to seven hundred billion, one of the lowest points in history. Simultaneously, China bought gold as a reserve asset and strengthened its domestic systems for conducting international transactions in yuan, its own currency. The effect was a quiet but significant shift in global finance. Trump's pressure on China was accelerating the world's move away from dependence on the dollar. De-dollarization, Liu explained, was already underway. The American currency remained the primary reserve for central banks worldwide—a source of power for any American president—but that dominance was eroding.
When Trump arrived in Beijing, he found a China that saw itself not as a rising power seeking American approval but as the ascendant force in a world where American influence was in decline. Chinese analysts favorable to the government attributed this shift in perspective directly to Trump himself, to the tariffs and the pressure that had forced China to accelerate its financial independence. The president had only Thursday and Friday morning on his official schedule, with six hours of Thursday reserved for meetings with his own advisors about the ongoing war in the Middle East that had delayed this trip by a month. He would have time for some meetings, a dinner, tea, and a final photograph. What he would not have was the leverage he once possessed, or the welcome he once received.
Citações Notáveis
The pressure of Donald Trump against China has a strong side effect against the United States: it accelerates the process of the world ceasing to depend on the dollar for business.— Zongyuan Liu, economist at Columbia University
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does it matter to Brazil what happens in that room between Trump and Xi?
Because China buys Brazilian beef and soybeans. If Trump convinces China to buy American instead, Brazilian farmers lose their largest customer overnight. Brazil's agriculture minister didn't fly to China to watch—he flew there to fight for market share.
So Brazil is hoping they don't get along?
Exactly. Brazil wants them rivals enough to keep bidding for the same goods, but not so hostile that trade collapses entirely. A controlled tension is profitable. Peace between them would be a disaster.
What changed between Trump's first visit and now?
In 2017, China still admired America. They saw it as the dominant power. Now they see themselves as the rising one and America as declining. Trump's tariffs actually accelerated that shift by forcing China to stop relying on the dollar.
How does selling Treasury bonds protect China?
If you hold a trillion dollars in American debt and the US suddenly sanctions you like they did Russia, you're trapped. China watched that happen and decided never to be that vulnerable again. They're reducing their exposure.
Is the dollar losing power because of Trump?
Trump's pressure on China is speeding up a process that was already happening. But yes—by forcing China to build alternatives, he's actually weakening the dollar's dominance. It's an ironic consequence of his own strategy.
So who wins this visit?
Whoever leaves with the other side needing them more. But China has already won something bigger—financial independence from American pressure. Trump still has leverage, but less than he thinks.