Louisiana shouldn't have to wonder how our senator will vote
In Louisiana's Republican Senate primary, a single vote cast five years ago continues to reshape the present — Senator Bill Cassidy's decision to convict Donald Trump during the second impeachment trial has effectively ended his bid for a third term, as Trump-endorsed Representative Julia Letlow advances to a June runoff. The result is less a story about one race than about the long memory of political loyalty, and the degree to which a former president's favor has become the defining currency of Republican primary politics. Louisiana, a state that gave Trump 60 percent of its vote in 2024, now offers a clear measure of how far that currency travels.
- A vote cast in 2021 has functioned like a slow-acting political sentence — Cassidy's impeachment conviction of Trump finally caught up with him on primary night, eliminating a two-term incumbent senator.
- Trump's Truth Social post calling Cassidy a 'disloyal disaster' on the morning of the vote underscored how personally the former president has pursued retribution through the ballot box.
- Letlow and Cassidy's mutual attacks — she questioning his loyalty, he questioning her past support for DEI programs — appear to have cracked open enough doubt to let former congressman John Fleming slip into the runoff alongside her.
- The June 27 runoff between Letlow and Fleming will test whether Trump's endorsement is sufficient to close the deal, or whether the fractured field gives an opening to an alternative.
- With Louisiana's deep-red lean and no Democrat elected to its Senate since 2008, the Republican primary is effectively the general election — making the stakes of Trump's influence here unusually high and unusually visible.
Representative Julia Letlow will face state Treasurer John Fleming in a June 27 runoff for Louisiana's Republican Senate nomination — a result that ends Senator Bill Cassidy's bid for a third term and traces its origins to a single vote cast five years ago. When Cassidy chose to convict Donald Trump during the second impeachment trial following January 6, he set in motion a reckoning that no subsequent act of cooperation with the Trump administration could fully undo.
Cassidy, a two-term medical doctor, had tried to demonstrate his usefulness — most recently delivering the deciding vote to advance Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s nomination as HHS Secretary. But Trump's January endorsement of Letlow made clear the impeachment vote remained disqualifying. On primary morning, Trump posted on Truth Social calling Cassidy a 'disloyal disaster' and urging voters toward Letlow, whom he described as 'a winner who will NEVER let you down.'
Letlow, 45, entered Congress in 2021 as the first Republican woman elected from Louisiana, winning a special election after her husband died from COVID-19 complications before he could be sworn in. Her campaign has centered on a single argument: that Cassidy cannot be trusted when the pressure is highest. Cassidy countered by surfacing 2020 statements in which Letlow expressed support for diversity, equity, and inclusion programs — an attack aimed at her conservative credentials. The crossfire between the two frontrunners appears to have given Fleming, a former congressman and Trump administration veteran, enough room to claim the second runoff spot.
The race has drawn national attention as a measure of Trump's grip on Republican primaries. Senate Majority Leader John Thune publicly praised Cassidy and noted the NRSC's role in supporting incumbents — but acknowledged that Louisiana voters would decide. They did. With the state having not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, whoever emerges from the June runoff will almost certainly become Louisiana's next senator, making the primary the election that truly matters.
Rep. Julia Letlow will face state Treasurer John Fleming in a runoff for Louisiana's Republican Senate nomination, a result that ends incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy's bid for a third term. The primary outcome, announced Saturday, reflects the enduring power of a single vote cast five years ago—Cassidy's decision to convict President Trump during the second impeachment trial following the January 6 Capitol attack.
Cassidy, 68, a medical doctor who has served two terms, had tried to move past that 2021 vote. He emphasized his cooperation with the Trump administration in recent years and even delivered the deciding vote to advance Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s nomination as Health and Human Services Secretary. But Trump's endorsement of Letlow in January signaled that the impeachment vote remained disqualifying in the eyes of the former president. On Truth Social Saturday morning, Trump called Cassidy a "disloyal disaster" and urged voters to support Letlow, describing her as "a winner who will NEVER let you down."
Letlow, 45, became the first Republican woman elected to Congress from Louisiana in 2021, winning a special election for the state's 5th District after her husband died from COVID-19 complications before he could be sworn in. She has built her campaign around the argument that Cassidy cannot be trusted when the stakes are highest. "Louisiana shouldn't have to wonder how our senator will vote when the pressure's on," she has said, hammering him as insufficiently loyal to the Republican Party. She has also criticized Cassidy's willingness to break with the administration, particularly over his public disagreements with Kennedy on vaccine policy—including his opposition to changes in the hepatitis B vaccine schedule for infants.
Cassidy has returned fire by questioning Letlow's conservative credentials, pointing to statements she made in 2020expressing support for diversity, equity, and inclusion programs in education. The feud between the two frontrunners appears to have opened space for Fleming, a former congressman who served in the first Trump administration, to position himself as an alternative. Fleming will now join Letlow in a June 27 runoff after no candidate cleared 50 percent of the vote.
The race has become a test of Trump's sway over Republican primary outcomes. Earlier this month, his effort to remove Indiana state senators who opposed his redistricting preferences largely succeeded. Louisiana will reveal whether that influence extends to Senate races in a state where Trump won 60 percent of the vote in 2024. The Republican primary winner will almost certainly become the next senator—Louisiana has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, and the state leans heavily red.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee, the Senate Republicans' campaign apparatus, has backed Cassidy. Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters Thursday that "Bill Cassidy has been a terrific senator for Louisiana," and said the committee's role was to support incumbents. But Thune acknowledged that Louisiana voters would make the final call. On the Democratic side, three candidates are competing for their party's nomination—former policy advisor Nick Albares, Navy veteran Gary Crockett, and third-generation farmer Jamie Davis—though the winner will face long odds in November.
Notable Quotes
Louisiana shouldn't have to wonder how our senator will vote when the pressure's on.— Rep. Julia Letlow, criticizing Cassidy
Bill Cassidy has been a terrific senator for Louisiana.— Senate Majority Leader John Thune, supporting the incumbent
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does a single impeachment vote from 2021 still matter so much in a 2026 primary?
Because Trump never moved past it. For most politicians, a vote like that fades. But Trump made it the central issue of his endorsement. He didn't say Cassidy was wrong on policy—he said he was disloyal. That's a different kind of charge in a Republican primary.
Cassidy tried to make peace with the administration, though. He voted for Kennedy's nomination.
He did, and it probably helped him survive this long. But it wasn't enough to erase the impeachment vote. Trump's endorsement of Letlow in January was the signal that nothing Cassidy did afterward would matter.
What's interesting about Letlow as a candidate?
She's the first Republican woman elected to Congress from Louisiana. She won her seat under tragic circumstances—her husband died of COVID before he could even take office. That gave her a story. But she's also built her campaign on the idea that Cassidy can't be trusted, which is a pretty direct appeal to Trump voters.
And Cassidy's counterattack about her DEI support—does that land?
It's a real vulnerability for her, but it's also a sign of how narrow the opening is in a Republican primary right now. Both candidates are essentially accusing each other of not being conservative enough, which tells you something about where the party is.
What does this race tell us about Trump's power?
It's a data point. He endorsed Letlow, and she made the runoff. But she didn't win outright—Fleming, who isn't Trump-backed, also advanced. So it's not total control. But in a state Trump won by 20 points, his endorsement still matters enormously.
Does the Democratic side matter at all here?
Not really. Louisiana hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008. Whoever wins the Republican runoff will almost certainly be the next senator. That's why this primary is the real election.