Eighteen million is probably going to be underpaid
In the quiet arithmetic of professional sport, a young man's worth is being weighed against a franchise's future. The Philadelphia Flyers have placed an $18 million annual offer sheet before 21-year-old Leo Carlsson, forcing the Anaheim Ducks to confront a question that transcends hockey: what does it cost to hold onto something exceptional, and what does it cost to let it go? Brady Tkachuk, speaking from the inside of this economy, suggests the number may not be too high — but rather too low for what is coming. Anaheim must answer by Friday.
- Philadelphia has engineered a deliberate trap, offering Carlsson $18 million per year knowing it would strain Anaheim's cap to the breaking point.
- The Ducks' available space collapsed from roughly $18 million to $9 million the moment they re-signed defenseman Pavel Mintyukov — a necessary move that made a necessary decision nearly impossible.
- Brady Tkachuk's public declaration that $18 million will likely look like an underpayment adds outside pressure to an already urgent internal debate.
- With Cutter Gauthier and Beckett Sennecke also awaiting extensions, matching Carlsson's deal risks mortgaging the very depth Anaheim needs to build around him.
- By Friday, the Ducks must choose between retaining their centerpiece and accepting the financial squeeze — or surrendering him for first-round pick compensation.
The Philadelphia Flyers have placed a five-year, $18 million annual offer sheet in front of Leo Carlsson, and the Anaheim Ducks have until Friday to decide whether to match it or watch him walk. At 21, Carlsson has become the axis of one of the NHL's most consequential deadline decisions in recent memory.
Brady Tkachuk, speaking on the "Wingmen" podcast alongside his brother Matthew, offered a blunt assessment: the number isn't too high — it may actually be too low. His reasoning is rooted in the trajectory of the market. As the salary cap climbs and the next wave of stars like Macklin Celebrini and Connor Bedard approach their own extensions, $18 million could look modest within a few years. The question, Tkachuk implied, was never whether Carlsson deserves it.
The question is whether Anaheim can survive saying yes. When the offer sheet arrived, the Ducks had just under $18 million in projected cap space. Then came the necessary re-signing of defenseman Pavel Mintyukov, which cut that room roughly in half. Now, with Cutter Gauthier and Beckett Sennecke also needing future extensions, matching Carlsson's deal means accepting years of constrained flexibility.
General manager Danny Briere built this bind deliberately — forcing Anaheim to choose between their young star and their ability to build around him. Pat Verbeek and the Ducks must now decide which loss they can live with. The clock is running.
The Philadelphia Flyers have put the Anaheim Ducks in a corner, and now the clock is ticking. On the table sits a five-year offer sheet worth $18 million per year for Leo Carlsson, the 21-year-old center who has become the focal point of one of the NHL's most consequential deadline decisions. If Anaheim matches it, Carlsson becomes the league's highest-paid player. If they don't, Philadelphia gets a haul of first-round picks as compensation. The Ducks have until Friday to choose.
Brady Tkachuk, the Florida Panthers star, doesn't think the money is the problem. Speaking on the "Wingmen" podcast alongside his brother and teammate Matthew, Tkachuk made a straightforward case: eighteen million dollars is not excessive for what Carlsson brings to the ice. In fact, he suggested the opposite. "Eighteen million is probably going to be underpaid," Tkachuk said. "That's how good this player is." His brother agreed without hesitation. The assessment carries weight because Tkachuk knows the market from the inside—he's lived through his own contract negotiations and watched how elite talent gets valued in real time.
Tkachuk's reasoning points to a larger truth about NHL economics. The salary cap keeps climbing, and the next generation of stars will command even larger deals. When players like Macklin Celebrini of San Jose and Connor Bedard of Chicago become eligible for new contracts, they will almost certainly exceed what Carlsson is being asked to sign for. In that context, eighteen million might look like a bargain in two or three years. The question isn't whether Carlsson is worth the money. General manager Pat Verbeek of Anaheim clearly believes he is—otherwise, he wouldn't be scrambling to keep him. The question is whether the Ducks can actually afford him.
That's where the real bind emerges. When the offer sheet arrived, Anaheim had just under eighteen million dollars in projected cap space. Then the team re-signed defenseman Pavel Mintyukov, a necessary move but one that cut their available room roughly in half, leaving them with around nine million dollars. The math gets worse when you factor in the future. The Ducks have two other restricted free agents on the horizon—Cutter Gauthier and Beckett Sennecke—who will need extensions. Matching Carlsson's deal doesn't just strain the cap in the present; it constrains the team's ability to build around him in the years ahead.
General manager Danny Briere of the Flyers engineered this trap deliberately. By offering eighteen million, he forced Anaheim into a choice between keeping a young star and maintaining flexibility. The Ducks can't do both. If they match, they're betting that Carlsson's talent justifies the financial squeeze and that they can still find ways to extend their other young players. If they don't, they lose him and gain draft picks—a painful but potentially necessary reset. Either way, someone wins and someone loses. The deadline is Friday, and Anaheim's window to decide is closing fast.
Notable Quotes
Eighteen million is probably going to be underpaid. That's how good this player is.— Brady Tkachuk, Florida Panthers
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why would Brady Tkachuk, a player on a different team, weigh in on whether Carlsson is underpaid?
Because he's lived the contract negotiation game himself. He knows what elite young talent looks like and what the market will bear in a few years. His voice carries credibility.
But if Carlsson is underpaid at eighteen million, why would the Ducks struggle to match it?
Because underpaid and unaffordable are different things. The Ducks don't have the cap space. They've already committed money elsewhere, and they have other young players who need deals soon.
So Briere created a situation where Anaheim can't say yes even if they want to?
Exactly. He forced them to choose between keeping Carlsson and keeping their team flexible. It's a brilliant negotiating move—he's not just bidding against Anaheim's offer, he's bidding against their future.
What happens if they let him go?
They get first-round picks as compensation, which helps rebuild. But they lose a young star in his prime, which is always painful. It's a trade-off between the present and the future.
And if they match?
They're locked into eighteen million for five years and they have to figure out how to pay Gauthier and Sennecke later. They're betting Carlsson is worth the constraint.