The pro-Brexit majority has effectively vanished through natural population turnover
A decade after a vote they were too young to cast, Britain's Gen Z has rendered its verdict on Brexit — and it is damning. Exclusive polling shows 60% of 18-to-28-year-olds would choose to rejoin the European Union, with support rising to 81% among likely voters, while the demographic arithmetic of mortality and new voters has quietly erased the original Leave majority. This is not merely a generational preference but a civilisational reckoning: a cohort shaped by the consequences of a decision made without them now asks whether the wound can be reopened in order to heal.
- A generation locked out of the 2016 vote has grown up watching Brexit unfold — and half of them now call it an outright failure.
- The original Leave majority may no longer exist: over 6 million older Leave-leaning voters have died since the referendum while 6 million young Remain-leaning voters have entered the electorate.
- Support for rejoining is not fringe sentiment — 81% of likely Gen Z voters would back EU membership in a hypothetical second referendum, with only 19% opposed.
- Many young Britons blame not the idea of Brexit but its execution, with 37% believing it could have worked under competent leadership — a nuance that complicates any simple narrative of ideological reversal.
- Despite strong pro-EU feeling, focus groups reveal deep fatigue: young people fear a rejoin referendum would swallow political energy better spent on housing, jobs, and climate.
- Sixty-two percent of under-29s want a referendum within five years, but whether a political class still scarred by the first Brexit war will answer that call remains the defining open question.
A generation of young Britons who were too young to vote in 2016 has grown up in Brexit's shadow — and they have largely concluded it was a mistake. Exclusive polling by the thinktank More in Common finds that 60% of 18-to-28-year-olds would vote to rejoin the EU if given the chance, with only 9% preferring to stay outside the bloc. Among those likely to actually vote in a hypothetical second referendum, the margin becomes a landslide: 81% for rejoining, 19% against.
The survey captures a generation's complicated reckoning. Half of Gen Z Britons now view Brexit as an outright failure; only 16% consider it a success. Yet the dissatisfaction is not purely ideological — around 37% believe the project could have succeeded under better political leadership, while 29% argue it was never viable. Only 11% think it has actually worked. For many, the 2016 campaign was their first vivid political memory: old enough to absorb a decade of debate, too young to have any say in the outcome.
Beneath the headline numbers lies a telling ambivalence. Focus groups reveal that while young Britons broadly support rejoining, they dread being pulled back into the exhausting culture war of their childhoods. Cost of living, housing, jobs, and climate change feel more urgent — and a second referendum risks consuming the political oxygen they believe should go elsewhere.
The demographic backdrop makes the polling all the more consequential. The 2016 Leave victory was narrow — 51.9% to 48.1% — and powered heavily by older voters, 64% of whom chose Leave. In the decade since, more than 6 million Britons have died, with mortality falling disproportionately on Leave-leaning demographics. Simultaneously, roughly 6 million young people ineligible in 2016 have entered the electorate. Analysts argue the pro-Brexit majority has effectively dissolved through natural population turnover.
Sixty-two percent of under-29s want a rejoin referendum held within five years; only 11% oppose one. Among those who want to rejoin, support for a new vote reaches 88%. The question that remains is whether Britain's political class — still marked by the wounds of the first referendum — is willing to ask the question again.
A generation of young Britons who were too young to vote in 2016 now overwhelmingly believe Brexit was a mistake. According to exclusive polling conducted by the thinktank More in Common, 60% of 18- to 28-year-olds say they would vote to rejoin the European Union if given the chance. Only 9% would choose to remain outside the bloc. Among those likely to actually cast a ballot in a hypothetical second referendum, the margin swells to a landslide: 81% for rejoining, 19% for staying out.
The survey of 440 young people across Britain captures a generation's reckoning with a political event that shaped their coming of age. Half of Gen Z Britons now categorize Brexit as an outright failure. Only 16% view it as a success. The remainder remain undecided. Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common, notes that for many in this age group, the 2016 referendum was their first vivid political memory—they were old enough to absorb the campaign and the decade of debate that followed, but too young to have any say in the outcome.
What's striking is that young Britons don't necessarily believe the concept of Brexit was doomed from the start. About 37% think the project could have worked well but was sabotaged by incompetent political leadership. Another 29% argue it was never viable to begin with. Only 11% maintain that Brexit has actually worked. This distinction matters: the dissatisfaction is not purely ideological but rooted in a sense that the execution was bungled.
Yet there is a hesitation beneath the numbers. Focus groups reveal that while young Britons mostly support the idea of rejoining, they are wary of being dragged back into the endless, exhausting Brexit debates of their youth. They care more about the cost of living, affordable housing, jobs, and climate change. A second referendum on EU membership risks consuming political oxygen they believe should go elsewhere.
The polling arrives as Britain's electorate undergoes a profound demographic transformation. The 2016 referendum was won by Leave with 51.9% to Remain's 48.1%—a narrow victory powered largely by older voters. But a decade has passed. More than 6 million Britons have died since the vote, and the mortality has not been evenly distributed. Older demographics voted overwhelmingly to leave—64% of those over 65 chose Leave. Because of this skew, roughly 15% of original Leave voters have since died, compared with only 10% of Remain voters. Meanwhile, about 6 million young people who were ineligible in 2016 have aged into the electorate. The cumulative effect is stark: analysts argue the pro-Brexit majority has effectively vanished through natural population turnover, replaced by an active anti-Brexit majority of several million living voters.
The appetite for a second referendum is substantial. Sixty-two percent of under-29s say there should be a vote on rejoining within the next five years. Only 11% oppose holding another ballot. Among those who want to rejoin, support for a new referendum climbs to 88%. The question now is whether the political class will respond to this generational shift, or whether the wounds of the first referendum remain too raw to reopen.
Notable Quotes
For many gen Z Britons, the Brexit referendum was formative to their political coming of age. Too young to vote, but with distinct memories of that campaign and the years of debate that followed.— Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common
Young Britons mostly support rejoining in principle, but focus group conversations suggest they're hesitant about a return to the endless Brexit debates they remember from their youth, which risks distracting from the issues they care most about—the cost of living, affordable housing, jobs and climate change.— Luke Tryl, More in Common
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does it matter that Gen Z was locked out of the 2016 vote? They're voting now.
Because they watched it happen. They absorbed the campaign, the promises, the divisions—but had no voice. Now they're old enough to judge the outcome, and they're saying it failed. That's not abstract politics. That's lived experience.
The poll shows 37% think Brexit could have worked if politicians hadn't botched it. That's not a rejection of the idea itself.
Right. It's a rejection of execution. They're not saying the concept was inherently wrong—they're saying the people in charge broke it. That's actually more damning in some ways. It's not ideology. It's competence.
But the focus groups show hesitation about a second referendum. Why would they support rejoining but not want to relitigate it?
Because they lived through the first one. They remember the years of debate, the division, the endless arguments. They want to move on to other things—housing, jobs, climate. Another referendum feels like being trapped in the past.
The demographic numbers are striking. Six million older voters dead, six million young voters entering the electorate.
It's not just numbers. It's the shape of the country changing. The Leave coalition was built on a specific demographic. Time has literally erased it. The pro-Brexit majority didn't lose an argument—it aged out of existence.
Does this mean a rejoin referendum is inevitable?
It means the political math has shifted completely. Whether it happens depends on whether politicians think the wounds are healed enough to reopen them. The young clearly do. The question is whether anyone in power is willing to ask.