A faint glow, probably greenish, maybe with some movement
Once again, the sun's quiet breath stirs Earth's magnetic field just enough to draw a faint curtain of light across the northern sky. NOAA forecasts a modest geomagnetic event Sunday night — a Kp index of 3 — that may carry the aurora borealis into view across eight northern states and much of Alaska. It is not a spectacle promised, but a possibility offered, the kind that rewards those willing to leave the glow of cities behind and look upward in the dark.
- A slim 20% chance of minor geomagnetic storms means this is an invitation, not a guarantee — the aurora may appear only as a faint, delicate shimmer rather than a dramatic display.
- The viewing window is narrow and unforgiving: peak auroral activity is expected between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m., demanding both a late night and a deliberate escape from urban light pollution.
- The arc of possibility runs from central Minnesota through the Dakotas, Wisconsin, Michigan's Upper Peninsula, Montana, northern Idaho, and the northeast corner of Washington — with Alaska holding the strongest odds of all.
- The forecast extends into Monday night, offering a rare two-night window for those who miss Sunday or simply want a second chance at the northern lights.
Sunday night, for those willing to drive north and stay up late, the aurora borealis may appear above the northern tier of the United States. NOAA is forecasting a modest geomagnetic event — a Kp index of 3 on a scale of nine — enough to push the northern lights into view across eight states and much of Alaska, though far from a guarantee.
At this level, forecasters describe what's likely as a "quiet aurora" — faint and delicate, easy to miss if you're not watching. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center puts the odds of minor geomagnetic storms at just 20 percent. Still, the lights could show visible motion and formation against the night sky.
The viewing zone arcs from central Minnesota through North Dakota, northern Wisconsin, Michigan's Upper Peninsula, Montana, northern Idaho, and the far northeast corner of Washington. Most of Alaska is well-positioned. The farther north you go, the better your chances.
NOAA's guidance is simple: leave the city, find a dark horizon facing north, and be outside between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. Bring patience and warm clothes — the aurora keeps no schedule.
The same conditions are expected to linger into Monday night, giving the Upper Midwest and northern Rockies a second opportunity. For anyone who has never seen the northern lights, it may be worth the drive and the lost sleep.
Sunday night, if the conditions align and you're willing to drive north and stay up late, you might see the aurora borealis paint the sky above the northern tier of the United States. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting a modest geomagnetic event—nothing dramatic, but enough to push the northern lights into view across a band of eight states and much of Alaska.
The prediction hinges on a Kp index of three, measured on a scale that runs to nine. At that level, the aurora won't be a spectacular show. What forecasters call a "quiet aurora" is more likely—faint, delicate, the kind of thing you might miss if you're not paying attention. But the lights could brighten and move across the sky with more visible motion and formation than a typical night. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center puts the chance of minor geomagnetic storms at just 20 percent, so this is a slim opportunity, not a guarantee.
The viewing zone stretches from central Minnesota northward and westward in a ragged arc. North Dakota sits squarely in the path. So do the northern reaches of Minnesota and Wisconsin, Michigan's Upper Peninsula, and parts of Montana. Northern Idaho and the extreme northeast corner of Washington state fall within the possible viewing area, though the odds thin as you move south. Most of Alaska is well-positioned to catch the display. The farther north you go, the better your chances—the lights are strongest closer to Earth's magnetic pole.
If you decide to look, NOAA's advice is straightforward: leave the city. Light pollution is the enemy. Find a dark spot with a clear view of the northern sky, and plan to be outside between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m., when auroral activity typically peaks. Bring patience and warm clothes. The aurora doesn't perform on schedule.
The forecast extends into Monday night as well. Similar geomagnetic conditions are expected to persist, which means the same general region will have another chance to see the lights. It's a two-night window, modest in scope but real. For anyone in the Upper Midwest or northern Rockies who has never seen the aurora, it's worth the drive and the lost sleep.
Citas Notables
The aurora could become brighter and produce more auroral activity including motion and formation— NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
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Why is NOAA only giving this a 20 percent chance of minor geomagnetic storms? That sounds like they're not very confident.
They're being precise about what they can predict. A Kp index of three is on the lower end of what produces visible aurora. The lights might show up anyway—that's the "slight chance" they mention—but a full geomagnetic storm is unlikely.
So if I drive north Sunday night, what am I actually looking for?
A faint glow, probably greenish, maybe with some movement or waves across the sky. It won't be the dramatic curtains you see in photographs from Alaska in winter. It'll be subtle, easy to miss if you're not watching carefully.
Why does it matter whether I'm in Minnesota versus Montana versus Alaska?
Proximity to the magnetic pole. The aurora forms in a ring around it. The farther north you are, the closer you are to that ring. In Minnesota, you're at the southern edge of the possible viewing zone. In Alaska, you're much closer to where the activity is centered.
If I miss it Sunday, is Monday night worth trying again?
Yes. The forecast shows similar conditions continuing, so the same area will be in play. You get two chances instead of one.