Even in the best case, there will be no neat and clean return to the way things were.
Across the negotiating tables of a world still absorbing the shock of a closed strait and a region at war, the United States and Iran are circling the possibility of an agreement neither side has yet found the courage — or the concessions — to fully embrace. The outline of a deal is visible, but its foundations remain contested: who controls the waters that carry a fifth of the world's oil, what becomes of uranium enriched close to weapons-grade, and whether peace in one place can be separated from war in another. History has rarely rewarded the assumption that the hardest questions can be deferred to later rounds.
- The Strait of Hormuz, closed since late February, has already triggered a global energy crisis — and Iran's newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority signals it has no intention of simply handing back the keys.
- Iran holds 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity, a short technical step from weapons-grade, and its state-linked media flatly denies any commitment to surrender stockpiles or dismantle facilities.
- Tehran is demanding immediate access to billions in frozen assets as a condition of any first-phase agreement, while the scale and timing of US sanctions relief remain unresolved.
- Iran insists a ceasefire must cover all regional fronts including Lebanon, but Israel has continued strikes there and both Washington and Jerusalem appear reluctant to accept that condition.
- Even if a preliminary deal is announced, the physical reality of sea mines and shattered shipping confidence means the strait's reopening will be slow, costly, and far from the clean reset either side might claim.
President Trump has described the US-Iran negotiations as proceeding constructively, even suggesting a deal is largely done — but Iranian semi-official media tells a different story, with multiple core issues still unresolved and the gap between the two sides' stated positions remaining wide.
At the heart of the dispute is the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has controlled the waterway since the war began in late February, allowing only limited vessel passage and sending global energy markets into crisis. Trump has insisted the strait must reopen as part of any agreement, but Tehran established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority last week, and IRGC-linked outlets suggest Iran intends to retain management authority over the passage — explicitly ruling out a return to pre-war conditions. Complicating matters further, sea mines laid during the conflict could take weeks to clear, and insurers are expected to demand naval escorts and additional security measures long after any formal reopening is declared.
Iran's nuclear program presents an equally stubborn obstacle. Tehran's foreign ministry has said nuclear issues fall outside the initial framework and will be addressed in later talks, while IRGC-affiliated outlets report that Iran has made no commitment to hand over enriched uranium, dismantle facilities, or permanently foreclose the nuclear weapons option. Iran currently holds 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent — technically close to weapons-grade — and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has demanded any final deal eliminate Iran's enrichment capabilities entirely.
Sanctions relief adds another layer of friction. Iran wants a specified portion of its frozen overseas assets released immediately in any first phase, with guarantees of continued access over time. Iranian officials have been explicit: there can be no agreement without it. The US may offer temporary easing of oil and gas sector sanctions during negotiations, but the scope and sequencing remain unresolved.
Finally, Iran has insisted that any ceasefire must apply across all fronts of the regional war, including Lebanon — a condition that Israel, which has continued strikes there, and potentially Washington, appear unwilling to accept. The convergence of these disputes means that even where the shape of a deal is becoming visible, the distance to a final agreement remains, by any honest measure, substantial.
The shape of a US-Iran agreement is becoming visible, but the hardest questions remain unresolved. President Trump has said repeatedly that a deal is within reach—"largely negotiated," he claimed, before walking that back slightly to describe negotiations as "proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner." But Iran's semi-official news outlets paint a different picture. Key provisions remain stuck, and the gap between what each side says it will accept suggests the real work is still ahead.
The Strait of Hormuz sits at the center of the dispute. This narrow waterway carries roughly one-fifth of the world's oil trade, and Iran has controlled it since the war began in late February, allowing only a handful of vessels through and triggering a global energy crisis. Trump has stated plainly that the strait must reopen as part of any agreement. But Iran is not prepared to surrender the role it has claimed. Last week, Tehran established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, and Iranian media reports—particularly those linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps—suggest any deal would preserve Iran's management authority over the passage. One outlet reported that the waterway would not return to its "pre-war situation." There is also the matter of sea mines. Iran laid mines during the conflict, and clearing them could take weeks. Even after a formal reopening is announced, shipping will not resume as it once did. The International Energy Agency warned that insurers will likely demand naval escorts and additional security measures, raising costs and slowing traffic. Iraq and other countries with limited storage capacity will take months to return to normal shipping levels. As the IMF noted, "even in the best case, there will be no neat and clean return to the way things were."
Iran's nuclear program is another major sticking point. The Iranian foreign ministry spokesman said nuclear issues are not part of the initial framework and will be addressed in later talks. But according to reporting citing unnamed US officials, Washington wants Tehran to eventually surrender its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Iran currently holds 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity—a short technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90 percent. Iranian media has pushed back hard against any suggestion of concessions. The IRGC-affiliated news outlets reported that Iran has made "no commitment" to hand over uranium stockpiles, dismantle nuclear facilities, or permanently abandon the possibility of building a nuclear weapon. Both outlets said negotiations over the nuclear program would take place within 60 days of any preliminary agreement. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted that any final agreement must completely eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities, including dismantling enrichment facilities and removing enriched material from Iranian territory.
Sanctions relief remains a major hurdle. Iran has long demanded access to billions of dollars in frozen assets held overseas under US sanctions. According to Iranian media, Tehran wants at least some of those funds released immediately as part of any preliminary agreement. Iranian officials have insisted there can be "no agreement" unless a specified portion of frozen assets is made available in the first phase, and they are also seeking guarantees that blocked funds would continue to be released over time. One outlet described disagreements over sanctions and frozen assets as one of the main reasons a final agreement has not yet been reached. The US could temporarily ease sanctions on Iran's oil, gas, and petrochemical sectors during negotiations, but the scale and timing of that relief remain unclear.
A fifth issue complicates everything: whether the agreement extends beyond Iran to the wider regional conflict. Despite a US-brokered ceasefire, Israel has continued carrying out strikes in Lebanon, saying it is targeting Hezbollah. Iran has repeatedly said that any ceasefire must apply across all fronts of the regional war. Iranian media reported that an initial memorandum of understanding would include an end to fighting "on all fronts, including Lebanon," and that Israel would also be expected to halt operations there. The Iranian foreign ministry spokesman echoed that position, saying the immediate priority was "ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon." Whether the US or Israel is willing to accept those conditions remains unclear. The gap between what each side says it needs and what the other side says it can offer suggests that even if the outline of a deal exists, the distance to a final agreement is still substantial.
Citações Notáveis
The Strait of Hormuz will be opened as part of any agreement.— President Trump
Any final agreement must completely eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities, including dismantling enrichment facilities and removing enriched material from Iranian territory.— Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
Iran has made no commitment to hand over uranium stockpiles, dismantle nuclear facilities, or permanently abandon the possibility of building a nuclear weapon.— IRGC-affiliated Iranian media
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does control of the Strait of Hormuz matter so much to Iran? It seems like they'd want it open again.
Because control is leverage. Iran has used the strait to pressure the world during this war. Giving it up means losing that power. They've just created a new authority to manage it—they're signaling they intend to keep a hand on the valve.
But if shipping doesn't resume, doesn't Iran suffer economically too?
Yes, but not immediately. They can wait. The world's energy crisis hurts everyone else faster. Iran can use that pain as negotiating pressure.
What about the nuclear issue? Why won't Iran just agree to give up its uranium?
Because uranium is insurance. Iran sees what happened to Libya and Iraq. A nuclear program—even one they say is peaceful—is a deterrent. Giving it up means trusting the US to keep its word forever. That's a hard sell after decades of sanctions.
Is there any chance Netanyahu's demand for complete elimination actually happens?
Unlikely. Netanyahu is setting a maximum position. The real negotiation will be about verification, limits on enrichment, inspections. But Netanyahu saying "complete elimination" means Israel won't accept anything less than a very strict framework.
What about the frozen assets? That seems like the most straightforward issue.
It should be, but it's not. Money is trust made concrete. If Iran gets billions released and then walks away from the deal, the US has no leverage left. So the US wants to release it in phases, tied to Iranian compliance. Iran wants it upfront. That's a fundamental disagreement about who trusts whom.