TVK has arrived as a genuine force in Tamil Nadu politics
In Tamil Nadu, where democratic participation has long carried the weight of deep political identity, more than 85 percent of eligible voters turned out on April 23 to decide the shape of their next government. The results, due May 4, may mark not merely a change in leadership but a structural shift in the state's political order — as a first-time party led by a celebrated actor stands poised, by exit poll projections, to rival the ruling alliance seat for seat. What unfolds in the counting halls could signal whether Tamil Nadu's storied two-party system has quietly given way to something new.
- Exit polls project TVK — contesting its very first statewide election — winning between 98 and 120 seats, overlapping with the ruling DMK alliance's projected 92 to 110, making the outcome genuinely uncertain.
- The DMK and TVK are separated by just two percentage points in projected vote share, each hovering near 35 percent, a statistical near-tie that has unsettled assumptions about incumbency advantage.
- The AIADMK, once the dominant opposition force, is projected to collapse to 22–32 seats, suggesting voters have redirected their dissatisfaction away from the traditional alternative and toward the newcomer.
- All eyes turn to 8 a.m. on May 4, when counting begins across 234 constituencies — each tally a data point in what may be Tamil Nadu's most consequential political realignment in decades.
Tamil Nadu went to the polls on April 23 with remarkable energy — more than 85 percent of eligible voters participated, a turnout that set the tone for what exit polls now suggest is an unexpectedly competitive race. When counting begins at 8 a.m. on May 4, the state will learn whether the DMK-led alliance under M.K. Stalin holds onto power or yields ground to a political newcomer.
The DMK, which swept back into office five years ago after a decade in opposition, is projected by most surveys to win between 92 and 110 seats. But the more striking story belongs to Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam — the party founded by actor Vijay — which is contesting a statewide election for the first time and is projected to secure between 98 and 120 seats. That range overlaps with the DMK's, and the vote share projections are even more striking: both the DMK alliance and TVK are expected to capture roughly 35 percent of votes cast, separated by just two percentage points.
The AIADMK-led coalition, which includes the BJP, is projected to finish a distant third with 22 to 32 seats and around 23 percent of the vote — a steep fall from 2021, when the DMK won 159 seats and the AIADMK and its partners held 75. That earlier contest had a clear winner; this one may not. Whether Tamil Nadu's long-standing two-party structure has been genuinely disrupted will become clear as the May 4 tallies come in, constituency by constituency.
Tamil Nadu cast its ballots on April 23, and more than 85 percent of eligible voters showed up. That turnout—substantial by any measure—set the stage for what exit polls are now suggesting could be a genuinely competitive race on May 4, when the state learns which party will govern.
Four states and one union territory held elections in April 2026. Tamil Nadu's contest involved all 234 assembly seats, and the results arrive this week. The exit polls paint a picture of a state in flux. The DMK-led alliance, headed by M.K. Stalin, is favored by most surveys to return to power, with projections ranging from 92 to 110 seats. That would represent a continuation of the government that took office five years ago after a decade in opposition. But the numbers tell a more complicated story than a simple reelection.
The real surprise is actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, or TVK, which is contesting a statewide election for the first time. Exit polls suggest the party could win between 98 and 120 seats—a range that overlaps with the DMK's projected performance and signals that this newcomer has arrived as a genuine force. If those numbers hold, TVK will have disrupted the traditional two-party dominance that has long defined Tamil Nadu politics. The vote share projections underscore how tight the contest appears: the DMK alliance and TVK are each expected to capture roughly 35 percent of votes cast, separated by a margin of just two percentage points.
The AIADMK-led alliance, which includes the BJP, is projected to finish a distant third with 22 to 32 seats and around 23 percent of the vote. Naam Tamilar Katchi is expected to account for 3 percent, with other parties splitting the remainder.
This represents a significant shift from 2021, when the DMK-led alliance won decisively with 159 seats while the AIADMK and its partners secured 75. That victory gave the DMK a clear mandate after years in opposition. Whether that mandate holds—or whether voters have decided to test something new—will become clear when counting begins at 8 a.m. on May 4. The results will be available through live coverage on NDTV Profit's website and app, with real-time constituency-by-constituency tallies as they come in.
Citações Notáveis
Exit polls suggest the DMK-led alliance, headed by M.K. Stalin, is favored to return to power— Axis My India exit poll
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
What made this election different from the last one in 2021?
The DMK won decisively last time with 159 seats. This time, the exit polls suggest a much tighter race—the DMK is still favored, but TVK's entry has genuinely scrambled the landscape. It's not a coronation anymore.
Who is Vijay, and why does his party matter?
He's an actor with enormous popularity in Tamil cinema. TVK is his political vehicle, and it's their first statewide contest. The exit polls suggest they could win nearly as many seats as the ruling party. That's remarkable for a debut.
The vote share numbers are nearly identical between DMK and TVK—35 percent each. How is that possible if the seat projections differ?
The way seats distribute across constituencies matters enormously. Two parties can get nearly the same vote share but win very different numbers of seats depending on where their voters are concentrated. TVK's support might be more spread out, or the DMK's more efficiently distributed.
What does 85 percent turnout tell us?
It suggests genuine engagement. Voters showed up. Whether they were voting to reelect the DMK or to try something new, they participated at a high rate. That kind of turnout usually means the election mattered to people.
When do we actually know?
May 4, at 8 a.m., when counting begins. The exit polls are educated guesses—sometimes they're right, sometimes they miss. We'll have real answers in a few days.