Taiwan invasion would fail at enormous cost to all sides, CSIS war game simulation shows

Simulation projects approximately 3,200 U.S. military deaths, ~10,000 Chinese military deaths, ~3,500 Taiwanese military casualties, plus 100+ Japanese aircraft losses and widespread civilian infrastructure destruction across Taiwan.

In the long tradition of war games that seek to make the unthinkable legible, a Washington think tank has spent months simulating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026 across twenty-four scenarios, and the answer that keeps returning is ancient in its logic: no one wins. The Center for Strategic and International Studies found that while China would likely fail to take the island, the cost of that failure — measured in sunken carriers, shattered fleets, and thousands of dead on every side — raises the question of whether victory and defeat are even meaningful categories in such a conflict. The

Taiwan invasion would fail at enormous cost to all sides, CSIS war game simulation shows

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