Differences are narrowing, but Iran approaches with caution
At the intersection of nuclear ambition and geopolitical exhaustion, the United States and Iran are edging toward an accord that could reorder the Middle East's volatile equilibrium. The proposed framework — requiring Iran to relinquish nearly half a ton of near-weapons-grade uranium, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and accept long-term enrichment limits — represents one of the most consequential diplomatic undertakings in a generation. Yet history weighs heavily on both sides: Iran has been struck twice while negotiating, and America has walked away from such agreements before. What emerges in the coming weeks will reveal whether the two nations can hold their mistrust long enough to build something durable.
- Nearly 441 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity — a single technical step from weapons-grade — sit at the center of a deal that could either defuse or detonate the region's future.
- The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since February, when U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Iran's supreme leader; the resulting energy crisis has sent oil and gas prices surging across the globe.
- More than 3,000 people have died in Lebanon since the conflict reignited, and daily drone and rocket exchanges continue even under a fragile ceasefire, threatening to unravel the broader diplomatic framework.
- President Trump is urging his team not to rush, insisting on an 'orderly and constructive' process — a posture that signals confidence but leaves sanctions relief, uranium disposal methods, and Israeli security guarantees still unresolved.
- Iran's foreign ministry says the gaps are narrowing, but Tehran is negotiating with the memory of two military strikes during previous talks, making trust the scarcest commodity at the table.
Negotiations between the United States and Iran have entered what regional officials describe as their final stretch, with a potential agreement taking shape that would end the regional conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and require Iran to surrender its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. President Trump has nonetheless instructed his team not to rush, calling for talks to proceed in an "orderly and constructive" manner.
The deal's core demand is that Iran relinquish 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity — one technical step below weapons-grade, a stockpile the IAEA has verified. Negotiators have sketched a 60-day window to determine how the material will be disposed of, likely through dilution and transfer to a third country such as Russia. A senior U.S. official made clear that sanctions relief will not come unless Iran follows through. Iran's President Pezeshkian has not publicly committed to the surrender, though he has signaled his country does not seek nuclear weapons — a notable shift in tone, if not yet in policy.
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since February 28, when U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Iran's supreme leader and other senior officials. Iran's closure of the waterway triggered a global energy crisis, and Trump has maintained a naval blockade of Iranian ports ever since. Secretary of State Rubio outlined the negotiated sequence: full reopening of the strait first, followed by serious Iranian commitments on nuclear weapons, enrichment limits, and uranium disposal.
The agreement also attempts to address the Lebanon conflict, where more than 3,000 people have died since fighting erupted two days after the February strikes. A U.S.-mediated truce has been in place since April 17, but Hezbollah continues launching drones and rockets daily while Israeli forces conduct strikes across Lebanese territory. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has insisted any final deal must eliminate Iran's nuclear threat, and Trump has reaffirmed Israel's right to defend itself on all fronts.
Iran's foreign ministry says the two sides are drawing closer, but Tehran is negotiating with the memory of having been struck twice during previous rounds of diplomacy. Whether the remaining gaps can be bridged within the 60-day window — and whether the ceasefire in Lebanon can hold long enough for the larger architecture to take shape — remains the defining uncertainty of this fragile moment.
Negotiations between the United States and Iran have moved into their final stretch, according to regional officials who briefed The Associated Press on Sunday. The emerging agreement would end the regional conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, and require Iran to surrender its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Yet even as diplomats inch toward a framework, President Trump has instructed his negotiating team to resist the pressure to close quickly, insisting the talks proceed in what he describes as an "orderly and constructive" manner.
The contours of the potential deal are becoming clearer, though no signature is expected imminently. Iran would renounce 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity—a technical step away from the 90 percent level suitable for weapons. The International Atomic Energy Agency has verified this stockpile exists. How Iran disposes of the material remains unresolved; negotiators have sketched a 60-day window to finalize the method, likely involving dilution of some uranium and transfer of the remainder to a third country, possibly Russia. A senior U.S. official confirmed this timeline and made clear that if Iran fails to surrender the uranium, sanctions relief will not materialize.
Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian has not publicly committed to surrendering the uranium, though he told state television that his country stands ready to assure the world it does not seek nuclear weapons. This represents a shift in tone from Iran's longstanding position that its nuclear program is entirely peaceful—a claim that rings hollow given the enrichment levels it has pursued. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking during a visit to India, outlined the negotiated sequence: first, full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; second, serious Iranian negotiations on three fronts: a commitment never to develop nuclear weapons, long-term restrictions on enrichment capabilities, and disposition of the highly enriched uranium.
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since February 28, when the United States and Israel struck Iranian targets, killing the country's supreme leader and other senior officials. Iran responded by shutting the waterway, triggering a global energy crisis. Oil, gas, and related commodity prices have surged. Trump has maintained a naval blockade of Iranian ports for more than a month and has signaled it will remain "fully in effect" until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed. Once the strait reopens, experts estimate it will take weeks or months for maritime traffic and prices to stabilize.
The emerging accord also addresses the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon, which erupted two days after the February strikes on Iran. A ceasefire has technically held since April 7, though sporadic exchanges of fire have continued. Since April 17, a fragile U.S.-mediated truce has been in place, yet Hezbollah continues launching drones and rockets daily at Israeli soldiers and northern Israel, while Israeli forces conduct strikes across Lebanese territory and maintain a broad presence in the south. The Lebanese Health Ministry reports more than 3,000 deaths in this recent round of fighting. Israeli casualties include 22 soldiers and one defense contractor killed in or near southern Lebanon, plus two civilians dead in the north.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed concern that any final agreement must eliminate Iran's nuclear threat and has secured Trump's reaffirmation of Israel's right to defend itself "on all fronts, including Lebanon." Israeli officials worry that Hezbollah remains a grave threat and that Lebanon lacks the capacity to disarm the group. A U.S. official confirmed the agreement would guarantee Israel's right to act against imminent threats in self-defense.
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, acknowledged on Saturday that differences between Iranian and American positions are narrowing, but cautioned that Iran approaches these talks with caution after being struck twice in the past year while engaged in nuclear negotiations. Trump has sought steeper concessions from Iran than those demanded in the 2015 nuclear agreement from which his first administration withdrew. The path forward remains uncertain, hinged on whether both sides can bridge remaining gaps within the 60-day window and whether the fragile ceasefire in Lebanon can hold as the larger diplomatic architecture takes shape.
Citações Notáveis
Any final agreement with Iran must eliminate the nuclear danger, and Israel retains the right to defend itself on all fronts, including Lebanon.— Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
Differences between Iranian and American positions are narrowing, but Iran is cautious after being attacked twice in the past year while engaged in nuclear negotiations.— Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does Trump keep telling his negotiators to slow down when they're this close?
He's signaling strength. If you appear desperate to close a deal, the other side knows they can extract more. By publicly urging caution, he's telling Iran—and his own political base—that he won't be rushed into a bad agreement.
What's the actual sticking point on the uranium?
Not the surrender itself. Iran seems willing. It's the mechanics—how much gets diluted, how much goes to Russia, what guarantees Iran gets that it won't be weaponized later. Sixty days to work that out is tight.
If the Strait reopens, does the energy crisis end immediately?
No. Experts say weeks or months for prices to stabilize. Markets move on confidence, and confidence takes time. Even after ships start moving through, traders will be cautious about supply reliability.
Why is Netanyahu so worried about Hezbollah if there's a ceasefire?
Because ceasefires aren't peace. Hezbollah is still armed, still launching rockets, still present in southern Lebanon. Netanyahu fears that once international attention shifts, Hezbollah will rebuild and strike again. He wants guarantees, not just pauses.
Does Iran actually want this deal?
It's complicated. The blockade is strangling their economy. But they've been attacked twice while negotiating. They're afraid of being left exposed if they disarm and the U.S. walks away again like it did in 2015.
What happens if they don't reach a deal in sixty days?
The blockade stays. Sanctions stay. The Strait stays closed. And you're back to a regional standoff with no off-ramp.