They should be winning this seat with 59-60 and we know that's not going to happen.
In the northern Brisbane suburb of Stafford, a byelection called to fill the seat of a deceased independent MP has become something far weightier than its origins suggest — a potential referendum on opposition leadership, party loyalty, and the shifting allegiances of a working-class electorate that Labor once considered its own. What history had long treated as settled ground is now contested terrain, and the outcome may determine not only who leads Queensland's Labor party, but how political gravity itself is redistributing across the state.
- A seat Labor held for nearly four decades is on the verge of slipping away, with political scientists predicting an LNP victory that would be unprecedented in fifty years of Australian state politics.
- The death of independent MP Jimmy Sullivan — himself expelled from Labor under fraught circumstances — left Stafford's political identity fractured and its loyalties genuinely uncertain.
- One Nation's absence from the ballot, defended as a logistical decision, may have inadvertently consolidated the anti-Labor vote behind the LNP, removing a preference buffer Labor had quietly relied upon.
- The Greens withdrew their preferential support for Labor, issuing a how-to-vote card that pointedly recommended neither major party — a quiet but consequential act of political distancing.
- Steven Miles has publicly insisted the result will not alter his leadership, but observers are already naming shadow treasurer Shannon Fentiman as the most likely challenger should Labor lose.
- The result carries echoes beyond Queensland — federal political analysts are watching Stafford as a signal of how urban, working-class electorates are recalibrating their allegiances in the post-2024 landscape.
The northern Brisbane suburb of Stafford went to the polls in May to fill a seat left vacant by the sudden death of independent MP Jimmy Sullivan, who had represented the area after being expelled from Labor in 2025 following a prolonged leave of absence and sustained attacks from the government. What might have been a routine byelection in a working-class neighborhood Labor had held almost continuously since 1989 had become something far more consequential.
The numbers were not kind to Labor. Political scientists predicted LNP candidate Fiona Hammond would win with 51-52% of the vote after preferences — a result that would be historically anomalous. No state opposition party had lost a byelection to a sitting government in fifty years. Griffith University political scientist Paul Williams was direct: even a reduced margin would constitute a meaningful defeat, but an outright loss in Brisbane — Labor's traditional heartland — would be "huge."
Several forces had converged against Labor. The Greens, who had preferenced Labor in 2024, this time recommended neither major party to their supporters. More significantly, One Nation chose not to field a candidate, a decision attributed to the short campaign window. Williams estimated One Nation might otherwise have polled between 12% and 20% — votes that, distributed on preferences, could have split the anti-Labor bloc. Without that split, those voters flowed directly to Hammond.
Miles attempted to reframe the contest as a referendum on the Crisafulli government, insisting the outcome would not affect his leadership. Few observers agreed. If the LNP prevailed, shadow treasurer Shannon Fentiman was widely expected to mount a challenge. The question was not whether pressure would come, but how quickly.
Labor's candidate, Luke Richmond, voted early alongside his wife in a seat his party had held for nearly four decades — a seat once represented by Jimmy Sullivan's own father. The historical continuity only sharpened the sense of rupture. Stafford, long assumed to be safe, had become marginal, volatile, and by May 2026, appeared ready to change hands.
The northern Brisbane suburb of Stafford went to the polls on a Saturday in May to fill a seat left vacant by the sudden death of independent MP Jimmy Sullivan in April. What should have been a routine byelection in a working-class neighborhood that Labor had held almost continuously since 1989 had become something far more consequential: a potential turning point in Queensland politics, and possibly the end of Steven Miles' time leading the state opposition.
Sullivan had represented Stafford as an independent after being expelled from Labor in May 2025 following a months-long leave of absence and sustained personal attacks from the government in parliament. The circumstances of his expulsion—rooted in legal and medical concerns—had fractured the seat's political alignment. At the 2024 election, Sullivan had faced a 6.83% swing against him, a warning sign that the seat was shifting. Yet Labor still held it with a 5.3% margin, making it the 12th-closest Labor seat in the state and technically still theirs to defend.
But the numbers told a different story by polling day. Political scientists predicted the LNP candidate, Fiona Hammond, would win with 51-52% of the vote after preferences were distributed. That would make this byelection historically anomalous: no state opposition party had lost a byelection to a sitting government in fifty years. If it happened in Stafford, experts said, it would almost certainly be fatal to Miles' leadership. Griffith University political scientist Paul Williams was blunt about the threshold: even if Labor held the seat but saw its margin shrink from 5.3% to something smaller, that would technically constitute a loss. "They should be winning this seat with 59-60 and we know that's not going to happen," Williams said. A full defeat, he added, would be "huge"—not because it was a regional seat where such swings might be explained away, but because it was Brisbane, Labor's traditional heartland.
The political landscape had shifted in ways that made a Labor loss plausible. The Greens, who had preferenced Labor in 2024, issued a how-to-vote card this time that recommended neither Labor nor the LNP to their supporters. More significantly, One Nation had chosen not to field a candidate in the four-week campaign window. That decision, defended by the party's chief of staff James Ashby as a matter of insufficient time and resources, may have inadvertently handed the LNP an advantage. Six months earlier, One Nation contesting an urban seat would have been unthinkable. Now, Williams suggested, the party might have polled between 12% and 20% of the vote—enough, distributed on preferences, to virtually guarantee an LNP victory. Without a One Nation candidate to split the anti-Labor vote, those preferences would flow directly to Hammond.
Miles himself had tried to reframe the byelection as a referendum on the Crisafulli government, telling voters it was their chance to send a message to the sitting LNP administration. He insisted the outcome would change neither the government nor his own position as Labor leader. But few political observers believed him. If the LNP won, Williams said, the most likely challenger to Miles would be Shannon Fentiman, the shadow treasurer and shadow minister for women. The leadership question was not whether Miles would face pressure, but how quickly it would come.
Labor's candidate, Luke Richmond, cast his vote early on Saturday alongside his wife, Maddie. He was fighting to hold a seat that had been in Labor hands for nearly four decades, in a suburb that had once been represented by Jimmy Sullivan's father, Terry Sullivan, from 2001 to 2006. The historical continuity only underscored how much had changed. Stafford was no longer safe Labor territory. It was marginal, volatile, and by May 2026, it looked like it was about to slip away.
Citas Notables
If they lose the seat, it's huge. If it was a regional seat, maybe, but to lose a seat in Brisbane for Labor is very consequential.— Paul Williams, Griffith University political scientist
They should be winning this seat with 59-60 and we know that's not going to happen.— Paul Williams, on Labor's expected performance in Stafford
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does losing one seat in Brisbane matter so much for Miles' leadership? Parties lose byelections all the time.
Because no opposition party in any Australian state has lost a byelection to a sitting government in fifty years. It's not just a loss—it's a historic reversal. It signals that the government is so dominant that it's even winning seats it doesn't hold.
But Stafford had a 5.3% margin. That's not exactly safe.
True, but it's still a seat Labor should defend. The real damage isn't the margin—it's what it means about Labor's trajectory. If they can't hold Brisbane in a byelection, what does that say about their chances at the next general election?
The Greens didn't preference Labor this time. Did that kill them?
It didn't help, but it probably wasn't decisive. The bigger factor was One Nation not running. If One Nation had fielded a candidate, they might have pulled 12 to 20 percent of the vote. Those preferences would have gone to the LNP anyway, but at least Labor could have blamed a split vote. Without One Nation, there's no excuse.
So Miles is finished if they lose?
Almost certainly. The experts were saying a loss would be terminal to his leadership. Shannon Fentiman, the shadow treasurer, was being positioned as the obvious replacement. It's not just about this one seat—it's about whether Labor can credibly claim to be a government-in-waiting.
Did Miles think he could survive it?
He said publicly that the result wouldn't change his leadership. But that's what leaders always say before they lose. The real test was whether Labor could actually hold the seat. Everything suggested they couldn't.