fully Farage-proofed before Westminster can block us
For the fifth time in succession, Scotland's voters returned the Scottish National Party to Holyrood, yet withheld the majority that would have made governing straightforward. John Swinney now leads a party that has won without winning enough — a condition that mirrors the broader Scottish question itself, where repeated democratic expression has not yet resolved the deeper argument about sovereignty. The result places Scotland in a familiar tension: a nation whose parliament reflects a plurality of visions, none commanding the full authority to act alone.
- The SNP's fifth consecutive victory is shadowed by a constituency vote share down nearly 10% and a regional share down over 13% since 2021 — a party winning while quietly bleeding support.
- Swinney immediately drew a hard line, barring Reform UK's Malcolm Offord from coalition talks and framing Reform's rise across Britain as the very reason Scottish independence has become urgent.
- Reform fired back, with Offord calling the exclusion 'deeply undemocratic' and independence a 'dead duck,' while the Liberal Democrats openly claimed credit for denying the SNP its majority.
- The pro-independence bloc — SNP and Greens combined — captured just over 40% of the vote, leaving Swinney's 2028 referendum ambition dependent on Westminster approval that neither Labour nor Conservative governments have been willing to grant.
- Swinney must now build a working government vote by vote, leaning on earlier budget relationships with the Greens and Liberal Democrats, while Scottish Labour's conspicuous silence leaves the parliamentary arithmetic unresolved.
John Swinney arrived at his fifth consecutive Holyrood victory on Saturday carrying a result that was both commanding and insufficient. The SNP secured 58 seats — seven short of a majority — leaving the party's leader to govern through negotiation rather than mandate. Labour and Reform UK tied for second with 17 seats each, followed by the Greens on 15, the Conservatives on 12, and the Liberal Democrats on 10.
Swinney moved quickly to set the terms of what came next. He invited every Holyrood party leader to talks — except Reform UK's Malcolm Offord. His reasoning was pointed: Reform's sweeping gains in English council elections and its emergence as the second force in the Welsh Senedd made Scottish independence not merely desirable but necessary. With Nigel Farage, in Swinney's words, moving toward Downing Street, he argued Scotland needed to secure its constitutional future before Westminster could foreclose it. Offord responded with fury, calling the exclusion arrogant and undemocratic, and dismissing independence as a lost cause.
Beneath the headline result, the SNP's foundations showed strain. Vote share had fallen sharply in both the constituency and regional ballots compared to 2021, and the combined pro-independence vote from SNP and Greens sat at just over 40%. Swinney had hoped for an outright majority to anchor a 2028 independence referendum; instead, he faces the same structural problem that has defined Scottish politics for years — a parliament that repeatedly returns pro-independence majorities, yet has twice been denied a referendum by Westminster.
The path forward is narrow. The Greens signalled constructive intent, prioritising cost-of-living issues. The Liberal Democrats made clear they had deliberately blocked an SNP majority and hoped to freeze the independence debate for years. Scottish Labour offered only silence. Swinney's government, when it forms, will be one of careful arithmetic and competing visions — a parliament where the question of Scotland's future remains as alive and unresolved as ever.
John Swinney stood before the cameras in Edinburgh on Saturday with a victory that felt incomplete. His Scottish National Party had won its fifth consecutive election to the Scottish Parliament, securing 58 seats—a commanding result by any measure. But it was seven seats short of a majority, and that gap would define everything that came next.
The arithmetic was stark. Labour and Reform UK tied for second place with 17 seats each. The Greens took 15, the Conservatives 12, and the Liberal Democrats 10. To pass legislation, Swinney would need to negotiate with other parties, a reality he seemed determined to shape on his own terms. He announced that leaders from every other Holyrood party would be invited to talks beginning the following week—with one exception. Reform UK's Malcolm Offord would not be welcome at the table.
Swinney's reasoning was blunt. He pointed to Reform's surge in England, where the party had won more than 1,400 council seats, and its emergence as the second-largest party in the Welsh Senedd. These gains, he argued, made the case for Scottish independence urgent and undeniable. He warned that Nigel Farage was moving toward Downing Street, a prospect he called catastrophic. "It is vital that we unite in Scotland to ensure our parliament is fully Farage-proofed," Swinney said, adding that Scotland needed the power to decide its constitutional future before 2029, before Westminster could block it.
The exclusion of Reform drew immediate fire. Offord accused Swinney of arrogance and petty politics, describing the SNP leader's behavior as "deeply undemocratic." He called independence a "dead duck" and suggested Swinney represented exactly the kind of establishment politics Scots had grown tired of. Yet Swinney's calculation rested on something deeper than personal animosity. He had successfully negotiated budget deals with the Greens and Liberal Democrats earlier in the year, and he believed those relationships offered a more stable path to government than any arrangement with Reform.
But beneath the victory lay troubling signs. The SNP's constituency vote share had fallen nearly 10 percent since the 2021 election, while its regional vote share dropped more than 13 percent. The combined pro-independence vote—SNP and Greens together—accounted for just over 40 percent across both voting categories. Swinney had hoped for an outright majority that would give him a mandate for a second independence referendum, something he insisted could realistically happen by 2028. Instead, he would have to make do with a coalition or confidence-and-supply arrangement.
The independence question hung over everything. Swinney pointed out that pro-independence parties had held a majority in four consecutive elections, yet both Labour and Conservative prime ministers had refused to grant permission for another referendum. He argued that Holyrood had a mandate, that the people of Scotland had spoken repeatedly. But Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay shot back, accusing Swinney of moving the goalposts and peddling "a massive lie" about his mandate. Alex Cole-Hamilton of the Liberal Democrats was more direct: his party had deliberately deprived the SNP of a majority, and he hoped that would put the independence question "in the deep freeze for at least the next five years."
Ross Greer of the Greens signaled his party would work constructively with a new SNP government, prioritizing cost-of-living measures. Scottish Labour, notably, held no media event on Saturday, leaving its position ambiguous. The parliament that would emerge from these negotiations would be one of minorities and competing visions—a place where Swinney's majority would have to be built vote by vote, and where the dream of independence would face its sternest test yet.
Notable Quotes
It is vital that we unite in Scotland to ensure our parliament is fully Farage-proofed— John Swinney, SNP leader
Independence is a dead duck. It's not going to happen.— Malcolm Offord, Reform UK Scotland leader
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why did Swinney refuse to talk with Reform, when he needs every seat he can get?
Because Reform's rise in England and Wales made them useful to him as a symbol, not as partners. He needed to argue that Scotland was under threat from Farage, that independence was urgent. Negotiating with Reform would have muddied that message.
But doesn't that seem like he's putting ideology before pragmatism?
Perhaps. But he had already built working relationships with the Greens and Lib Dems. Those parties had proven they could be negotiated with. Reform was unpredictable, and Offord had called independence a dead duck. There was no common ground to build on.
The SNP's vote share dropped significantly. Does that undermine Swinney's claim to a mandate?
It does, and his opponents won't let him forget it. He won the election decisively, but fewer Scots voted SNP than in 2021. That's a real weakness when he's arguing that the people have given him a mandate for independence.
What happens if the Lib Dems refuse to cooperate?
Then he'd likely have to work with Labour, or find some other arrangement. But Cole-Hamilton has already signaled he wants independence off the table for five years. That's a direct challenge to Swinney's central ambition.
Is a 2028 referendum actually realistic?
Not without Westminster's permission, and Westminster has made clear it won't grant it. Swinney is betting that circumstances will change, that public opinion will shift enough to force the UK government's hand. It's a long bet.