A government the voters did not vote for
In the small but symbolically significant nation of Slovenia, a political inversion has unfolded — one that carries consequences well beyond its borders. Janez Janša, a nationalist with deep ties to Israel and to Europe's illiberal right, has assembled a fragile coalition to reclaim the prime ministership for a fourth time, displacing a liberal government that had made Slovenia one of Israel's most vocal critics on the continent. The shift reminds us that foreign policy is never merely foreign — it is always the outward expression of a society's inward argument about who it is and what it values.
- Slovenia's liberal government, which had recognized Palestinian statehood, banned arms transfers to Israel, and barred Netanyahu from entering the country, collapsed after failing to build a coalition majority.
- Janez Janša — a Trump ally, Orbán confidant, and staunch Israel supporter — announced he had secured enough votes to return as prime minister for the fourth time, sending shockwaves through European diplomatic circles.
- His coalition is structurally precarious: 43 formal seats propped up by five outside lawmakers from the anti-establishment Resnica party, which has pledged to remain a 'combative opposition' rather than a governing partner.
- Critics warn that Janša's return echoes the democratic backsliding seen in Orbán's Hungary, pointing to his previous tenure's attacks on independent media and civil society institutions.
- The fate of Slovenia's hardline Israel policies — among the most sweeping in Europe — now hangs on whether a coalition with little in common can hold together long enough to govern.
In the span of two months, Slovenia's political landscape inverted. Liberal Prime Minister Robert Golob, whose Freedom Movement had won the most seats in late March elections, spent weeks trying and failing to assemble a coalition. By late May he conceded, opening the door for opposition leader Janez Janša to announce he had secured the numbers to form a government — his fourth time as prime minister.
Janša's coalition is a patchwork. His Slovenian Democratic Party holds 28 seats; alliances with the Christian Democrats and Anže Logar's Democrats bring the total to 43 — still short of the 45-seat majority threshold. He will rely on outside support from five lawmakers of the anti-establishment Resnica party, which has said it will prop up the government without formally joining it. Slovenian observers have warned the arrangement could collapse quickly.
For Israel, the shift is profound. Under Golob, Slovenia had become one of the EU's most forceful critics of Israeli policy: formally recognizing a Palestinian state in June 2024, banning weapons transfers to and from Israel, barring ministers Ben-Gvir and Smotrich as persona non grata, and prohibiting Netanyahu from entering the country. Janša represents an almost complete reversal — a staunch Israel ally and close associate of Viktor Orbán who has publicly criticized Palestinian recognition and aligned himself with Europe's pro-Israel right.
But alarm extends beyond Israel policy. During his 2020–2022 tenure, Janša faced accusations of authoritarian governance, attacks on independent media, and the weakening of democratic institutions — charges that sparked massive street protests and ultimately cost him power. Now he returns promising to 'restore Slovenian values,' advance traditional family policies, cut taxes, and defund NGOs he considers too political. His opponents warn the agenda mirrors Orbán's Hungary.
The coalition's durability remains an open question. Resnica has signaled it will remain watchful and combative rather than cooperative, and some of its members have been linked to pro-Russian positions — a concern for EU observers. Golob's parliamentary leader called the arrangement 'a government the voters did not vote for,' born from 'deception, broken promises and manipulation.' Whether it survives its first real test is far from certain.
In the span of two months, Slovenia's political landscape inverted. After elections in late March left no clear path to power, the country's liberal prime minister Robert Golob spent weeks trying to assemble a coalition. He failed. His Freedom Movement had won the most seats—29 out of 90 in parliament—but couldn't convince enough partners to join him. By late May, he conceded and stepped aside. That opened the door for Janez Janša, leader of the opposition Slovenian Democratic Party, who announced Monday night that he had secured the numbers to form a government and return to power for a fourth time.
Janša's coalition is a patchwork. His party holds 28 seats. He's allied with two center-right groups—the Christian Democrats and the Democrats party led by Anže Logar—giving him 43 seats combined. That's still short of the 45 needed for a majority. He'll rely on outside support from five lawmakers from the anti-establishment Resnica party, which has said it will not formally join the government but will prop it up from the sidelines. The arrangement is fragile, dependent on partners with little in common, and Slovenian political observers have warned it could collapse quickly.
For Israel, this shift matters far more than routine European politics. Under Golob, Slovenia became one of the European Union's most forceful critics of Israeli policy. In June 2024, it formally recognized a Palestinian state. It banned weapons and military equipment from being imported, exported, or transited through the country to or from Israel—a move Golob's government claimed was the first of its kind in Europe. It also prohibited imports of products from Israeli settlements. The government declared two Israeli ministers, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, persona non grata and barred Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from entering the country, citing Slovenia's commitment to rulings by international courts. The country considered joining South Africa's genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice but ultimately decided against it, though Foreign Minister Tanja Fajon pledged to continue pursuing hardline measures.
Janša represents an almost complete reversal of that posture. He is a staunch Israel ally, a supporter of Donald Trump, and a close associate of Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian prime minister who lost his reelection bid last month after 16 years in office. Janša has publicly criticized Golob's decision to recognize a Palestinian state and has positioned himself within Europe's right-wing camp, which opposes the EU's hardline stance toward Israel. His return to power could undo much of what Golob's government built.
But Janša's ascent has triggered alarm beyond Israel policy. During his previous tenure as prime minister from 2020 to 2022, he faced accusations of authoritarian governance during the COVID crisis, undermining independent media, and weakening democratic institutions—charges he denied. His government sparked massive street protests and was voted out decisively in 2022 when Golob, then a newcomer to politics, promised to restore Slovenia to a liberal, pro-European path. Now Janša is back, promising to "restore Slovenian values," advance "traditional family" policies, cut taxes, and reduce funding for nongovernmental organizations he claims have become too political. His opponents warn that his agenda mirrors the illiberal policies associated with Orbán's Hungary.
The coalition's stability remains uncertain. Resnica, the party providing crucial outside support, has signaled it will remain a "combative opposition," closely monitoring the government rather than participating in it. Some members of Resnica have been linked to pro-Russian positions, adding another layer of concern for EU observers. Golob's party attacked the agreement sharply. Its parliamentary leader, Borut Sajovic, called it "a government the voters did not vote for," born from "deception, broken promises and manipulation." Janša said the process could be completed as early as Tuesday, but whether the coalition survives its first real test remains an open question.
Citações Notáveis
A government the voters did not vote for, born out of deception, broken promises and manipulation— Borut Sajovic, parliamentary faction leader of Golob's Freedom Movement
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does a change of government in Slovenia matter to anyone outside Slovenia?
Because Slovenia sits inside the European Union, and it had become one of the bloc's most vocal critics of Israel. When a small country takes that stance, it signals something about where Europe is heading. Now that's about to reverse.
So Janša will just undo everything Golob did—the Palestinian recognition, the weapons ban?
Likely, yes. But it's not automatic. He still needs his coalition partners to agree. That's where it gets complicated. He doesn't have a comfortable majority.
How uncomfortable?
He's got 48 seats out of 90. One party is only supporting him from outside the government, not even formally joining. If they walk away, he collapses.
Why would they stay?
That's the question everyone's asking. Resnica says it will be a "combative opposition." They're not allies. They're more like hostages to their own leverage.
What's Janša's actual record? Is he trustworthy?
He was prime minister before, from 2020 to 2022. People protested in the streets. He was accused of authoritarian moves during COVID, attacking the media, weakening courts. He lost badly when Golob ran against him.
So why did voters give him another chance?
They didn't, really. Golob won the election. But Golob couldn't build a coalition, so he had to step aside. Janša is coming in through the back door.