Buy a little now, buy a little more if prices fall further
In a market that rewards patience over impulse, investment strategist Phanisekhar Ponangi offers Indian equity investors a map drawn in two colors: the steady ground of defensive sectors, and the promising but not-yet-ripe terrain of consumers, infrastructure, and capital goods. His counsel arrives at a moment when domestic investors have quietly become the market's backbone, and when the oldest question in finance — how much risk is worth carrying — demands a more honest answer than usual. The deeper truth beneath his six themes is ancient: discipline, not enthusiasm, is what compounds.
- Uncertainty is high enough that Ponangi is urging selectivity over momentum — chasing everything that moves is precisely the wrong instinct right now.
- Pharma, utilities, financial services, and export manufacturing are holding the line, offering floors rather than fireworks for investors who cannot afford another sleepless quarter.
- Consumers, infrastructure, and capital goods are flashing early entry signals, but the timing is delicate — a staggered, patient accumulation strategy is the recommended navigation.
- The IT sector is caught between two forces pulling in opposite directions: AI disruption eroding old business models, and a weakening rupee quietly rewarding dollar-earning companies.
- The Reserve Bank sits at a genuine crossroads — tightening risks choking modest growth, while holding steady risks letting inflation drift, and the current account deficit, though manageable, is widening.
- Retail and domestic institutional investors have become structural pillars of Indian markets, giving the foundation more local depth than it had a decade ago, even as global tremors continue.
Phanisekhar Ponangi, co-founder and chief investment officer of Mavenark Wealth, reads the current market as one that rewards caution and punishes impatience. His framework divides the investment landscape cleanly: sectors worth holding now, and sectors worth watching for better entry points ahead.
On the defensive side, pharma, healthcare, utilities, financial services, engineering, and export-focused manufacturing offer stability rather than spectacle. These are not the names that double portfolios — they are the names still standing when volatility clears. For investors already bruised or simply risk-averse, they provide a meaningful floor.
The more interesting opportunity lies in consumers, infrastructure, and capital goods, where valuations are becoming more reasonable. Ponangi does not recommend rushing in — he recommends a staggered approach: buy some now, buy more if prices fall, and stay ready to add as conditions clarify over the next two quarters.
The IT sector is the most complicated chapter. Artificial intelligence has disrupted the business models that Indian IT companies built over two decades, and the new playbook is still being written. Yet a depreciating rupee offers a quiet compensation — dollar-earning IT firms become more valuable to local investors even as fundamental questions about their future remain unanswered.
Macro risks cut both ways. Inflation could rise on fuel shocks or a weak monsoon; growth concerns are equally real. The Reserve Bank faces a genuine dilemma between tightening and holding. The current account deficit is wider than last year but remains manageable, supported by import duty adjustments and trade agreements.
Valuations are neither cheap nor absurd — many leading stocks have not yet priced in even the base case. This creates pockets of opportunity, but only for disciplined investors. Retail and domestic institutional investors have meanwhile become structural forces, giving Indian markets deeper local roots than a decade ago.
Ponangi's longer view holds that government reforms aimed at attracting foreign capital will continue, and that beneath all the noise about artificial intelligence, it is sustainable earnings-driven growth — not any single technology — that actually moves equity prices over time.
Phanisekhar Ponangi, who runs Mavenark Wealth as co-founder and chief investment officer, sees a market that rewards caution right now. In his view, the next two quarters belong to investors willing to be selective—picking their spots rather than chasing everything that moves. The playbook he's sketched out divides the landscape into two categories: the defensive positions worth holding, and the places where patience might pay off.
The defensive case is straightforward. Pharma and healthcare, utilities, financial services, engineering, and export-focused manufacturing all offer the kind of stability that matters when uncertainty is high. These are not the sectors that will double your money. They are the sectors that will still be standing when the dust settles. For investors who have already taken their lumps or who simply cannot afford to lose sleep at night, these names provide a floor.
But Ponangi is not suggesting investors sit entirely in cash or hide in the safest corners. Rather, he sees three areas—consumers, infrastructure, and capital goods—where the entry points are becoming more reasonable. The catch is timing. These sectors may not be ready to run today, but over the next six months, the math could shift. A staggered approach makes sense here: buy a little now, buy a little more if prices fall further, and be ready to add if conditions improve.
The information technology sector presents a more complicated picture. Growth remains uncertain, clouded by the way artificial intelligence has scrambled the traditional business models that IT companies have relied on for two decades. The new playbook is still being written. AI adoption is not yet stable enough to predict which companies will thrive and which will struggle. Yet Ponangi sees a silver lining: as the Indian rupee weakens, IT companies that earn in dollars become more valuable to local investors. It is a currency play wrapped inside a sector play, and it may be enough to support prices even as the business model questions linger.
On the broader macro picture, Ponangi sees risks balanced on both sides. Inflation could rise if fuel prices spike or if the monsoon disappoints. But growth concerns are real too. The Reserve Bank faces a genuine dilemma: raise rates and risk slowing an already modest expansion, or hold steady and risk letting inflation drift higher. The current account deficit, meanwhile, looks manageable. The government's push on import duties for gold and its free trade agreements are helping. Still, the deficit will be wider than last year.
Valuations are not screaming cheap, but they are not absurd either. Many stocks that have led the market higher have not yet priced in the base case scenario—the ordinary, expected future—let alone anything better. This creates pockets of opportunity, but only for investors with discipline. If you are the type to buy whatever is hot, Ponangi's advice is to slow down. A methodical, staggered approach beats the rush.
Retail investors have become a structural force in Indian markets, no longer a sideshow. Domestic institutional investors now wield more power than foreign ones. This shift matters because it suggests the market has deeper local roots than it did a decade ago. Geopolitical tensions and global uncertainties will still cause tremors, but the foundation is less fragile.
Looking ahead, Ponangi expects the government to keep pushing reforms that make India more attractive to foreign capital—easing compliance, shortening lock-in periods, improving dispute resolution. The goal is clear: pull in more foreign direct investment. And beneath all of this sits a deeper truth: economic growth, not artificial intelligence, is the real long-term story. AI is a tool, a productivity booster, a way to unlock new possibilities. But it is growth—sustainable, earnings-driven growth—that actually moves equity prices over time.
Notable Quotes
Economic growth leading to sustainable earnings growth drives equities. Artificial Intelligence is a catalyst in the long-term growth story to the extent that it promises to be a great productivity booster.— Phanisekhar Ponangi, Co-Founder and CIO, Mavenark Wealth
The emergence of retail risk capital is structural. While it may experience ebbs and flows, it is no longer a fringe force in the Indian capital markets.— Phanisekhar Ponangi
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
You're saying to be defensive right now, but also to buy consumers and infrastructure. That sounds like you want it both ways.
Not both ways—layered ways. Defensive is what you hold and sleep on. Consumers and infrastructure are where you nibble, knowing the entry points might get better. You're not all-in on either.
And IT? That sector has been beaten down. Isn't that when you're supposed to buy?
Usually, yes. But IT is not just cheap—it's uncertain. The business model itself is in flux because of AI. You're not just waiting for a rebound; you're waiting for the industry to figure out what it is.
So the currency play is the only real reason to own IT right now?
It's a real reason. As the rupee weakens, IT companies that earn dollars look more valuable. But that's a hedge, not a conviction. It's not the same as believing the sector has found its footing.
What about retail investors? You said they're now more powerful than foreign money. Does that change the risk picture?
It changes the stability picture. Retail is structural—it's not going away. But retail can also panic. The difference is that panic is now domestic, not imported from overseas. That's actually more predictable.
If the government keeps pushing reforms and the current account deficit is manageable, why not just be bullish?
Because growth is still modest. Reforms and stable deficits are necessary conditions, not sufficient ones. You need earnings to actually grow, not just the promise of it. That's why patience matters more than enthusiasm right now.