Seven in ten Americans did not want him to run again
En el verano de 2022, las encuestas revelaron una paradoja profunda en la democracia estadounidense: el presidente Biden, elegido con un mandato histórico apenas dos años antes, enfrentaba el rechazo de siete de cada diez ciudadanos ante la posibilidad de una nueva candidatura. No era una rebelión partidista, sino una reflexión colectiva sobre el tiempo, la capacidad y el costo del liderazgo prolongado. La política, como siempre, no preguntaba quién era el mejor, sino quién era el menos rechazado.
- El 70% de los estadounidenses no quería que Biden volviera a postularse, una cifra que trascendía las líneas partidistas y señalaba una crisis de confianza más profunda que la simple impopularidad.
- La edad de Biden —79 años en ese momento— se convirtió en el argumento más citado por sus opositores, convirtiendo una preocupación biológica en una cuestión política de primer orden.
- Dentro del Partido Demócrata, solo el 30% lo apoyaría en unas primarias, revelando que la resistencia más peligrosa no venía de sus enemigos, sino de su propia base.
- Trump, lejos de ser la alternativa preferida, enfrentaba su propio rechazo del 61%, dejando al electorado atrapado entre dos opciones que la mayoría preferiría no tener.
- A pesar de todo, Biden seguía firme en su intención de postularse, declarando en público que le quedaban seis años en la presidencia, ignorando o desafiando las señales que le enviaba el país.
En el verano de 2022, una encuesta conjunta del Centro de Política de Harvard y The Harris Poll expuso una realidad política incómoda: siete de cada diez estadounidenses no deseaban que el presidente Joe Biden buscara un segundo mandato. Lo significativo no era solo el número, sino su origen: el rechazo provenía de un amplio espectro del electorado, no de los adversarios habituales. Entre quienes se oponían a su reelección, aproximadamente un tercio señalaba su edad —79 años— como razón suficiente para buscar otro candidato.
Al interior del Partido Demócrata, el panorama era aún más sombrío. Solo el 30% de los demócratas lo respaldaría en unas primarias, una cifra que revelaba una profunda incomodidad dentro de la coalición que necesitaría para ganar la nominación. Sin embargo, las mismas encuestas mostraban que, en un enfrentamiento directo con Donald Trump, la carrera sería casi pareja: Biden con 44% y Trump con 39%, según un sondeo de Emerson College publicado el mismo día.
Trump tampoco escapaba al rechazo colectivo. El 61% de los estadounidenses no quería verlo regresar a la Casa Blanca, y entre sus opositores, un tercio lo responsabilizaba de haber dividido al país e incitado el asalto al Capitolio el 6 de enero de 2021.
A pesar de este panorama, Biden no descartaba postularse. En la Cena de Corresponsales de la Casa Blanca, habló con confianza sobre su futuro político y afirmó tener seis años más en la presidencia. Era una señal clara de sus intenciones, pronunciada ante un país que, según las encuestas, habría preferido casi cualquier otra opción.
In the summer of 2022, a joint survey by Harvard's Center for Politics and The Harris Poll captured a stark political reality: seven out of every ten Americans did not want President Joe Biden to seek another term. The finding landed with particular weight because it came not from partisan opponents but from a broad cross-section of the electorate, and the reasons were specific. Among those opposed to his reelection, roughly one-third cited his age as the disqualifying factor—Biden was 79 at the time, and for a significant portion of voters, that alone was reason enough to look elsewhere.
The polling picture grew more complicated when examined through different lenses. Within his own party, Biden's standing was even weaker. Only 30 percent of Democrats said they would support him in a primary contest, a number that suggested deep unease among the coalition he would need to win a nomination. Yet the same surveys that showed this resistance also revealed something else: if the choice came down to Biden versus his predecessor Donald Trump, the race would be nearly even. A separate poll from Emerson College, released the same day, showed Biden at 44 percent and Trump at 39 percent in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, despite only 40 percent of respondents believing the current president was doing good work.
Trump himself faced comparable rejection. Sixty-one percent of Americans did not want to see him return to the presidency. Among those opposed, a third believed he would divide the country and held him responsible for inciting the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021, when his supporters breached the building during the joint session of Congress certifying Biden's victory from the previous November.
Yet Biden had not ruled out running again. At the White House Correspondents' Dinner on April 30, he spoke with confidence about his political future. He dismissed concerns about the midterm elections scheduled for November and expressed certainty that any partisan obstruction could be overcome. "I'm confident we can get it done in the six years I have left in the presidency," he said, a remark that seemed to telegraph his intentions.
The context mattered. Biden had defeated Trump decisively in 2020, winning 306 electoral votes to Trump's 232. His inauguration on January 20, 2021, marked a historic break in protocol when Trump became the first outgoing president in modern times to skip the ceremony for his successor. Yet the political capital from that victory had eroded quickly, worn down by inflation, legislative setbacks, and persistent questions about his fitness for the demands of the office. The polling suggested that while Americans might prefer Biden to Trump in a direct choice, they would have preferred almost anyone else to either of them.
Citas Notables
I'm confident we can get it done in the six years I have left in the presidency— Biden, at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, April 30, 2022
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does age seem to matter so much to voters here? Biden was elected at 77—what changed in two years?
It's not really that something changed in him. It's that voters had time to watch him govern, to see him stumble, to notice the pauses. Age becomes a proxy for something harder to name—whether he has the stamina, the sharpness, the energy the job demands.
But Trump is only three years younger. Why isn't age equally disqualifying for him?
It should be, by the logic. But Trump's opposition is rooted in different soil—January 6th, the divisiveness, the character questions. Age is one factor among many. For Biden, it's become the primary one.
The poll shows Biden would still beat Trump in a head-to-head. So why would he step aside?
Because 70 percent saying no is a different kind of number than a narrow electoral advantage. It's not about winning—it's about the legitimacy of winning. Governing on a mandate that thin, after a campaign fought on those terms, is its own kind of defeat.
He seemed confident at that dinner, talking about six more years. Did he really believe that?
Politicians say what they need to say in the moment. But that comment—it reads now like someone who hadn't yet felt the full weight of what the numbers were telling him.