Seven candidates emerge in race for Espírito Santo governorship in 2026

Less than a year before the ballot, Espírito Santo's political machinery is already churning through the question that will define the state's next four years: who comes after Renato Casagrande? At least seven names are circulating now—some from the governor's own coalition, others from the opposition benches—each representing a different answer to whether the state should continue on its current path or turn toward something new.

The choice before voters will be stark. They can back a continuity candidate, someone blessed by Casagrande and his allies, or they can gamble on rupture—a new face, a new generation, a different political project altogether. What's at stake is not just the governor's office but the direction of the state itself over the next four years.

Ricardo Ferraço, the current vice-governor and head of the state MDB, is the government's first choice. He is, in the most literal sense, the natural heir—the vice waiting his turn. If Casagrande steps down in April 2026 to run for Senate, as some expect, Ferraço would assume the governorship and run for election from that position. The arrangement was reportedly settled back during the 2022 campaign, when Ferraço was chosen as Casagrande's running mate. Some observers see it as compensation for a wound that never quite healed: in 2010, when Ferraço was vice-governor under Paulo Hartung and being groomed to succeed him, he was sidelined in a maneuver involving national party leadership. Casagrande, then a senator, ran for governor instead with Hartung's backing, and Ferraço ended up running for Senate. Both won. Now, sixteen years later, the machinery appears to be making good on what was owed. Ferraço, a center-right figure, balanced Casagrande's leftist ticket in 2022 and helped secure support from business and non-left voters. He stepped down from his role as development secretary early this year to focus on the electoral process. The government has invested considerable effort in making his candidacy viable and decisive, though insiders acknowledge there is a backup plan if he falters.

Arnaldinho Borgo, the mayor of Vila Velha, is another continuity option—but one with a different pitch. Reelected with 79 percent of the vote, Borgo has positioned himself as the generational change candidate, arguing that Espírito Santo voters want a younger governor. He left the Podemos party and has been shopping for a new home, even exploring conversations with the PSD, a move that made Casagrande visibly uncomfortable. A late-July meeting between Casagrande, Borgo, and Ferraço smoothed some of the friction. Afterward, Borgo moved closer to the PP, with expectations that he will join the party and run under its banner—if he can make his own candidacy stick. The problem is that no one knows where the PP will actually stand in 2026. Right now it is allied with Casagrande's government and also with Lorenzo Pazolini, the Vitória mayor who is himself running for governor.

Pazolini represents the opposition's clearest challenge. Reelected in the first round, he has been openly positioned by his Republicanos party as a pre-candidate for governor. The party's state president, Erick Musso, left his post as Vitória's government secretary to work full-time on Pazolini's campaign, taking him to events across the interior nearly every weekend to build name recognition beyond the capital. Pazolini's conflict with Casagrande is not new—he was a state deputy who frequently attacked the governor from the assembly floor, and the tensions only deepened during the pandemic. He is expected to become the opposition's main standard-bearer, and he has the backing of the PSD as well.

The opposition coalition is still taking shape. Aridelmo Teixeira, a businessman and two-time gubernatorial candidate who recently switched from the Novo to the PSD, has positioned himself as a backup option. If Pazolini steps back, Aridelmo says he is ready to run. Paulo Hartung, the ex-governor who served three terms and rejoined the PSD in May after more than six years without a party, is also in the mix. Hartung has publicly supported Pazolini but left the door open for his own candidacy, saying he would not refuse if the group called on him. He remains a powerful figure in backroom negotiations, even if he insists he does not plan to run.

On the left, the PT's federal deputy Helder Salomão has agreed to run for governor, but only with guarantees of real support from the national party leadership and President Lula. He would be giving up a nearly certain reelection to Congress to take the risk. The PT's national priorities are Lula's reelection and expanding the party's congressional delegation, particularly in the Senate, where Fabiano Contarato is running. Whether the PT fields its own gubernatorial candidate in Espírito Santo depends on calculations made in Brasília. In 2022, the party withdrew its own candidate to support Casagrande's reelection, but now finds itself frozen out of the government's coalition despite being formally allied. That isolation is pushing the party toward mounting its own campaign. If Salomão declines, Nésio Fernandes, a former state health secretary and physician, has offered himself as an alternative. Fernandes is part of the PT-PCdoB-PV federation and would be ready to run if the PT decides to step aside. The federation's internal dynamics will ultimately determine who, if anyone, carries the left's banner.

The race is still forming. Alliances are being tested, ambitions are being measured, and the political map remains fluid. What is certain is that Espírito Santo's voters will face a genuine choice between continuity and change—and that choice will reshape the state for years to come.