Russia stands to harvest billions from a conflict it didn't start
As the United States and Israel wage war against Iran and the Strait of Hormuz closes to global shipping, the world's attention fixes on the combatants — yet it is Russia, standing apart from the battlefield, that may emerge as the conflict's quiet architect of gain. Through the ancient logic of scarcity and the modern machinery of sanctions politics, Moscow finds that other nations' crises have a way of becoming its windfalls. The chaos of war, it turns out, has a beneficiary who fired no shot.
- Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent crude prices surging to $120 per barrel, handing Russia an 80 percent price windfall almost overnight — from $50 to $90 per barrel for its crude.
- A US-India trade commitment to halt Russian oil purchases collapsed within days of the Iran war's outbreak, as Washington quietly granted New Delhi a waiver to resume buying Moscow's crude.
- Russian tankers that had been stranded at sea with unsold oil are now clearing their backlog — inventories dropped from 132.9 million barrels to 118.3 million in weeks as buyers rushed back.
- The Trump administration, eyeing November midterm elections, is weighing broader sanctions relief on Russian oil to cool domestic fuel prices — a political calculation that doubles as a gift to the Kremlin.
- Even as prices retreated from their peak following Trump's signals of a possible ceasefire, they remain 27 percent above pre-war levels, sustaining a revenue stream analysts project could reach tens of billions for Moscow.
On the last day of February, the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and triggering retaliatory drone and missile attacks across the Gulf. The region descended into active conflict — but in Moscow, the dominant mood was something closer to calculation than alarm.
Russia, the world's largest crude exporter despite four years of post-Ukraine sanctions, was positioned to profit almost immediately. When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly one-fifth of global oil flows — prices spiked to $120 per barrel. Russian crude, which had been selling at $50 before the conflict, climbed to $90. The math was simple and the gains were real.
The political dimension proved equally valuable. A February agreement between Washington and New Delhi to halt Indian purchases of Russian oil evaporated within days of the war's outbreak. The White House granted India a temporary waiver to resume buying Russian crude — a decision driven by the need to stabilize global supply, but one that directly cleared a growing backlog of Russian oil sitting unsold on tankers at sea. Shipping data confirmed the effect: Russian crude held on vessels fell from 132.9 million barrels in February to 118.3 million by mid-March.
Beyond the waiver, the Trump administration began weighing broader sanctions relief on Russian oil — not out of sympathy for Moscow, but to dampen fuel prices ahead of November's midterm elections. For the Kremlin, the motivation behind the relief matters far less than the relief itself.
Prices have since pulled back from their $120 peak as Trump signaled the conflict might end soon, but they remain 27 percent above pre-war levels. Analysts project that if the Gulf disruption persists, Russia could accumulate tens of billions in additional state revenue. For a country that has endured four years of sanctions designed to isolate its energy sector, the Iran war has not changed Russia's position — it has simply revealed how much leverage that position still holds.
On the last day of February, the United States and Israel launched a coordinated military campaign against Iran, striking at Tehran's military infrastructure and naval assets. Among those killed in the strikes was Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The retaliation came swiftly—Iranian drones and missiles targeted American military installations and Israeli positions, pulling the entire Gulf region deeper into active conflict. But while analysts debate which side might prevail in this widening confrontation, a quieter calculation is already underway in Moscow: how to turn chaos into profit.
Russia, still the world's largest crude oil exporter despite the sanctions imposed after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, stands positioned to harvest billions from the disruption. The mechanism is straightforward. When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz—a waterway through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply normally flows—crude prices spiked to $120 per barrel within days. That price surge translates directly into state revenue for any major exporter. But Russia's advantage runs deeper than simple market mechanics. The conflict has created political space for sanctions relief that would have been unthinkable weeks earlier.
In February, President Trump had announced that India had agreed to halt purchases of Russian crude as part of a bilateral trade agreement. That commitment lasted until the Iran war erupted. Within days, the White House granted New Delhi a temporary waiver to resume buying Russian oil. The timing was not accidental. Trump's administration is reportedly considering broader easing of oil sanctions on Moscow and releasing emergency crude stockpiles from American reserves—moves designed to dampen the spike in global prices before November's midterm elections, when Republicans hope to retain control of Congress. What matters for Moscow is that these measures, taken for domestic American political reasons, amount to a gift.
The numbers tell the story. Russian crude that sold for $50 per barrel before the conflict now moves at $90. That 80 percent price increase, combined with the resumption of Indian purchases, has begun clearing a backlog of Russian oil that had accumulated on tankers sitting at sea. According to shipping data, Russian crude held on vessels dropped from 132.9 million barrels in February to 118.3 million barrels by mid-March—cargoes are reaching buyers faster, inventory is turning over, and cash is flowing. Analysts estimate that if the Gulf conflict persists and constrains regional exports, Moscow could generate tens of billions in additional state revenue over the coming months.
The broader context matters. Russia has endured four years of sanctions designed to cripple its energy sector and starve its government of hard currency. Yet it remains the world's top crude exporter, a testament to both the inelasticity of global oil demand and the difficulty of truly isolating a major energy producer. The Iran conflict has not changed Russia's underlying position—it has simply created temporary conditions that amplify its existing advantages. Higher prices help any exporter. Sanctions relief helps Russia specifically. And renewed demand from India, the world's third-largest economy and a buyer that has consistently resisted Western pressure to shun Russian oil, provides a stable customer base.
Oil prices have since retreated from their $120 peak after Trump suggested the conflict might end soon, but they remain 27 percent higher than they were when the fighting began. That elevation, even if temporary, translates into real money for the Russian state. The question now is whether the conflict will persist long enough for those gains to accumulate into the tens of billions analysts are projecting, or whether a negotiated settlement will collapse prices back toward pre-war levels. For Moscow, the calculus is clear: prolonged disruption in the Gulf is worth far more than a quick resolution.
Citações Notáveis
Moscow is set to emerge as a major beneficiary from the war, as higher oil prices and temporary sanctions relief strengthen the value and volume of its crude oil exports.— Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does Russia benefit more from this conflict than, say, Saudi Arabia or other Gulf producers?
Because Russia was already under sanctions. Higher prices help everyone, but sanctions relief helps only Russia. The US is essentially choosing to ease restrictions on Moscow's oil sales to manage American domestic prices before elections. That's a gift Saudi Arabia doesn't need.
So Trump is inadvertently helping Russia?
Not inadvertently. The administration knows what it's doing. But the priority is keeping gas prices down for American voters. Russia's gain is a secondary effect they're willing to accept.
How long does this window stay open?
That depends on the war. If fighting ends quickly, prices fall, and the temporary waiver to India probably disappears. If the conflict drags on, Russia keeps selling at elevated prices with fewer restrictions. Moscow has no incentive to see this resolved quickly.
What about the tanker backlog you mentioned?
Russia had been accumulating crude on ships because buyers were scarce and sanctions made sales difficult. The waiver to India opened a buyer. Now that oil is moving. It's the difference between inventory gathering dust and cash coming in.
Could this sanctions relief become permanent?
Possibly. If Trump wins re-election and Republicans control Congress, there's political room to normalize relations with Russia. But that's speculation. What's certain is that right now, in this moment, Russia is winning.