They want someone who will fight back against the criminals
Uma semana antes das eleições presidenciais peruanas, o país chega às urnas carregando o peso de uma crise de segurança sem precedentes e de uma instabilidade política crônica. Keiko Fujimori, filha do ex-presidente Alberto Fujimori e candidata pela quarta vez consecutiva, lidera as pesquisas com 13% de intenção de voto, oferecendo ao eleitorado uma promessa de ordem a qualquer custo. Num país que registrou 2.200 homicídios ligados ao crime organizado em um único ano, a demanda popular por respostas duras reflete não uma virada ideológica, mas o desespero de uma sociedade que sente o Estado recuar diante da violência.
- Com 35 candidatos disputando a presidência — número recorde — e nenhum ultrapassando 13% nas pesquisas, o Peru enfrenta uma eleição tão fragmentada quanto sua própria governabilidade.
- A violência do crime organizado deixou de ser estatística: 2.200 homicídios e um aumento de 19% nas denúncias de extorsão em um ano transformaram o medo em principal força eleitoral do país.
- Fujimori, López e Álvarez convergem para o mesmo diagnóstico — impunidade — e para a mesma receita: endurecimento do sistema penal e menos restrições legais para o Estado agir.
- A proposta de Fujimori de retirar o Peru da Corte Interamericana de Direitos Humanos sinaliza uma disposição de romper com marcos institucionais em nome da segurança, o que divide analistas e atrai eleitores exaustos.
- Se nenhum candidato vencer no primeiro turno, um segundo turno em 7 de junho prolongará a incerteza num país que teve nove presidentes na última década.
O Peru chega ao domingo eleitoral com um eleitorado assustado e uma classe política que aprendeu a falar a língua do medo. Keiko Fujimori, ex-congressista e filha do ex-presidente Alberto Fujimori, lidera as pesquisas com 13% de apoio — sua quarta candidatura consecutiva à presidência. Sua plataforma é direta: retirar o Peru da Corte Interamericana de Direitos Humanos e dar ao Estado mais liberdade para agir contra criminosos, com menos amarras legais.
Dois candidatos se aproximam dela na segunda posição, com cerca de 9% cada. Rafael López, ex-prefeito, e Carlos Álvarez, comediante convertido em político, também constroem suas campanhas sobre a promessa de combate implacável ao crime. Os três líderes compartilham o mesmo diagnóstico: o problema do Peru é a impunidade, e a solução é tornar o sistema mais duro e mais rápido.
Os números que alimentam esse discurso são brutais. No ano passado, 2.200 homicídios foram atribuídos ao crime organizado, e as denúncias de extorsão cresceram 19%. Para muitos peruanos, esses dados não são abstratos — são a realidade de bairros onde negócios pagam proteção e famílias temem deixar filhos na rua.
A eleição também expõe a disfunção política estrutural do país. São 35 candidatos concorrendo — um recorde — num campo tão fragmentado que um segundo turno em 7 de junho parece provável. Seria mais um episódio numa sequência de instabilidade: o Peru teve nove presidentes na última década. O que distingue este ciclo é a urgência da crise de segurança e a nitidez com que os eleitores pedem uma ruptura. Se algum dos candidatos conseguirá transformar essa demanda em governança real, o país ainda está por descobrir.
Peru is heading into a presidential election on Sunday with a country in crisis and voters reaching for the hardest-line candidates they can find. One week before the vote, Keiko Fujimori—a former congresswoman and daughter of ex-president Alberto Fujimori—holds the clearest lead in the polls at 13 percent support. She is running for the presidency for the fourth time in a row. Her main pitch to voters is unambiguous: withdraw Peru from the Inter-American Court of Human Rights and crack down on criminals with fewer legal constraints. It is a message that resonates in a nation where the security situation has become dire.
Two other candidates are bunched together in second place, each drawing about 9 percent of the vote. Rafael López, a former mayor, and Carlos Álvarez, a comedian-turned-politician, are also running on tough-on-crime platforms. All three leading contenders are offering essentially the same diagnosis and cure: Peru's problem is that criminals face too few consequences, and the solution is to make the system harsher and faster. The voters listening to these messages are frightened, and the numbers explain why.
Last year, Peru recorded 2,200 homicides connected to organized crime. In the same period, reports of extortion jumped by 19 percent. These are not abstract statistics in Peru—they are the daily texture of life in many neighborhoods, the reason people lock their doors, the reason families are afraid to let their children walk to school. The violence is driven by criminal syndicates that operate with near-impunity, extorting businesses, kidnapping for ransom, and settling disputes with bullets. The state has struggled to contain it, and public patience has worn thin.
The election itself is a window into Peru's broader political dysfunction. There are 35 candidates running for president this year—a record number. The field is so fragmented that it is entirely possible no single candidate will win an outright majority in the first round. If that happens, a runoff election is scheduled for June 7. This scenario would be just another chapter in a longer story of instability: Peru has had nine presidents in the last decade. The country cycles through leaders, each one arriving with promises to fix the system, each one departing amid scandal or exhaustion or both.
What makes this election different is the intensity of the security crisis and the clarity of voter demand for a response. Fujimori's lead, while not overwhelming, reflects a preference for someone willing to break with legal niceties in pursuit of order. Whether that preference will hold through a potential runoff, and whether any of these candidates can actually deliver on their promises to restore security, remains to be seen. But as Peruvians prepare to vote, the message from the polls is unmistakable: they want someone who will fight back against the criminals who have made parts of their country ungovernable.
Notable Quotes
Fujimori's main proposal is to withdraw Peru from the Inter-American Court of Human Rights to impose harsher criminal sentences— Campaign platform
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why is Keiko Fujimori, specifically, leading the race? What's her particular appeal?
She's the daughter of a former president who was seen as tough on crime, even if his methods were brutal. She's running on that legacy—the idea that she knows how to impose order. And she's been persistent, running four times. Some voters see that as commitment.
But Peru has had nine presidents in a decade. Doesn't that suggest the problem isn't just about who's in charge?
It does. But when people are afraid—when extortion is up 19 percent and organized crime is killing thousands—they don't always think about systemic problems. They think about safety. They want someone to act.
The leading candidates all sound the same on crime. What's the actual difference between them?
Honestly, not much in their messaging. Fujimori has the name recognition and the polling lead. López and Álvarez are offering the same hardline pitch. The real difference might come in a runoff, if it happens.
What does withdrawing from the Inter-American Court of Human Rights actually mean for Peru?
It means fewer external checks on how the government treats prisoners and suspects. Faster convictions, fewer appeals, less oversight. It's attractive to voters who see the courts as obstacles to justice.
Is there any indication these policies would actually reduce crime?
Not really. But that's not what matters in an election when people are scared. The promise of action—even action that might not work—can be more powerful than the promise of something complicated.