The Pacific is transitioning from cooling to super El Niño in a single year
From the depths of the tropical Pacific, a familiar but formidable force is stirring — one that has, across centuries, redrawn the boundaries between feast and famine for millions. Scientists now watch with rare confidence as sea surface temperatures climb toward levels not seen since 1877, when the last comparable El Niño left a trail of drought, flood, and death across three continents. What emerges in the coming months will test not only the resilience of regional weather systems, but the capacity of an already strained global food order to absorb yet another shock.
- Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific are rising at a pace that has surprised even veteran meteorologists, with forecasters now two-in-three confident this becomes a very strong El Niño by winter.
- Some models project warming beyond 3°C in the critical Niño3.4 region — a threshold that would surpass the catastrophic 1877 event and almost certainly make 2027 the hottest year in recorded history.
- The disruption is already taking shape on the ground: flooding threatens Peru and East Africa while drought bears down on Australia, Indonesia, and Central America, fracturing agricultural systems across multiple continents simultaneously.
- A global food supply already weakened by fertilizer shortages tied to Middle East conflict now faces the compounding pressure of El Niño-driven crop failures and price inflation.
- For the 700 million people living in poverty worldwide, the convergence of reduced harvests and rising staple prices is not an abstraction — it is the arithmetic of hunger.
The tropical Pacific is warming faster than forecasters anticipated, with sea surface temperatures already crossing the threshold that marks El Niño's arrival. Scientists at NOAA, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, and Australia's Bureau of Meteorology are now aligned: there is a two-in-three chance this event intensifies into something very strong by winter. Some models suggest temperatures in the key monitoring region could climb beyond 3°C above the long-term average — a level that would exceed the 1877 El Niño, an event that killed millions through famine and drought across Asia, Brazil, and Africa.
The physics are unforgiving. A strong El Niño typically adds roughly 0.2°C to global average temperatures, and climate risk professor Liz Stephens told the BBC that record global warmth in 2027 is likely if the event develops as projected. The year 2023-24 already set the previous record on the back of the last strong El Niño; this one could surpass it.
Beyond the temperature headline lies a cascade of regional disruptions. Northern Peru and East Africa face flooding; Australia, Indonesia, and Central America face drought severe enough to trigger crop failures and wildfires. These are not isolated weather events — they are simultaneous shocks to a food system already under pressure from fertilizer shortages caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The humanitarian stakes are sharpest for the world's poorest populations. When harvests shrink and food prices rise at the same time, the roughly 700 million people living in poverty face a compounding crisis. Stephens stressed that vulnerable communities already stretched by poverty could find themselves caught between reduced supply and inflated costs. Forecasters are watching the Pacific with unusual clarity — not because the future is certain, but because the signal already written in the warming water is difficult to misread.
The tropical Pacific is warming at a pace that has caught even seasoned meteorologists off guard. Sea surface temperatures have climbed roughly half a degree above normal in recent weeks—a threshold that signals the arrival of El Niño, the periodic warming pattern that reshapes weather across the globe. Scientists monitoring the phenomenon are now increasingly confident it could become one of the strongest on record, with consequences that will ripple far beyond the ocean itself.
Forecasters at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration expect El Niño to establish itself within the month, and they've raised their confidence to two in three that it will intensify into a very strong event by winter. The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts and Australia's Bureau of Meteorology are aligned in their projections: more than half their models suggest sea surface temperatures in the critical Niño3.4 region could exceed 2.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average by autumn. Some forecasts push even higher, suggesting increases beyond 3 degrees—a level that would surpass the strongest El Niño on record, the event of 1877 that killed millions through famine and drought across Asia, Brazil, and Africa while triggering severe flooding in Peru. Nathanial Johnson, a meteorologist at NOAA, described the current warming trajectory as a rare occurrence: the Pacific is transitioning from the cooling pattern of La Niña, seen just this past winter, to potentially a super El Niño within a single year.
The immediate consequence is straightforward physics. The extra heat accumulating in the eastern Pacific typically boosts global average temperatures by about 0.2 degrees Celsius. Liz Stephens, a professor of climate risk and resilience at the University of Reading, told the BBC that record global temperatures are likely next year, particularly if this develops into a very strong event. The year 2023-24 already delivered the hottest year on record following the last strong El Niño; 2027 could eclipse even that.
But the warming is only the beginning. El Niño rewires regional weather patterns in ways that vary with each event, yet consistently disrupt agriculture and water supplies. Northern Peru and southern Ecuador typically face flooding. East Africa, Central Asia, and southern North America often experience the opposite—drought conditions severe enough to trigger wildfires and crop failures. Australia and Indonesia face similar risks. The Atlantic hurricane season, meanwhile, tends to weaken during El Niño years, which sounds beneficial until you consider that Central America depends on those storms for rainfall; less wind activity means less rain, and less rain means drought.
These regional disruptions collide with a global food system already under strain. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already disrupted fertilizer distribution, driving prices upward. When El Niño-triggered droughts and floods reduce crop yields in the months ahead, food prices will climb further. For the roughly 700 million people living in poverty globally, higher prices for staple crops can mean the difference between adequate nutrition and hunger. Stephens emphasized the compounding effect: vulnerable populations already stretched thin by poverty face the prospect of reduced harvests and inflated prices simultaneously. If the Middle East crisis persists, the humanitarian toll could be severe.
The last very strong El Niño, in 2015-2016, produced a three-month average temperature increase of 2.4 degrees in the Niño3.4 region. What unfolds over the coming months will determine whether this event matches that benchmark or exceeds it. For now, forecasters are watching the Pacific with unusual confidence in their predictions—a confidence born not from certainty but from the unmistakable signal already written in the warming water.
Citações Notáveis
We're probably looking at record global temperatures next year, especially if this is a very strong El Niño event— Liz Stephens, professor of climate risk and resilience at the University of Reading
We're looking at potentially quite huge humanitarian impacts this year, especially if the crisis in the Middle East continues— Liz Stephens, University of Reading
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does the speed of this warming matter so much? Isn't El Niño just El Niño?
The speed tells you something about the underlying forces at work. Going from a cooling pattern to a potential super El Niño in a year is genuinely rare. It suggests the ocean has less resistance than usual, which meteorologists take as a sign the event could be particularly intense.
And when you say it could surpass the 1877 record—how confident are scientists in that number?
Not very. That event happened in an era with limited observations and measurement tools. There's real uncertainty in what actually happened then. But the point isn't whether we'll beat 1877 exactly—it's that we're in territory we haven't reliably measured before.
You mentioned the Atlantic hurricane season will be quieter. That seems like good news for people in hurricane zones.
It sounds that way, but it's a trap. Central America needs those storms for rainfall. A quiet hurricane season means drought, which means crop failures and water shortages. You trade one disaster for another.
How does fertilizer from the Middle East connect to all this?
The Strait of Hormuz closure has already disrupted fertilizer shipments and driven prices up. Now add El Niño-triggered droughts and floods that reduce harvests. Farmers get lower yields and higher input costs at the same time. For poor countries, that's catastrophic.
Is there any part of the world that actually benefits from a strong El Niño?
Some regions see increased rainfall where they need it. But the disruptions—the droughts, the floods, the food price spikes—those hit hardest in places with the least capacity to absorb them. That's where the humanitarian crisis lives.
What happens if this peaks in autumn as predicted?
We'll likely see the warmest year on record in 2027. But the real test comes in how food systems respond. That's where you see whether this becomes a historical footnote or a genuine crisis for vulnerable populations.