The next president will face a fractured Congress incapable of delivering bold reform.
Iván Cepeda leads polls with 30-37% support, representing continuity of Petro's leftist project, while rightist Abelardo de la Espriella trails with 16-32% backing. Conservative Paloma Valencia won the largest primary with 3.2 million votes, positioning herself to challenge De la Espriella for the right-wing vote in May's runoff.
- Iván Cepeda leads polls with 30-37% support; 51% needed to win first round on May 31st
- Paloma Valencia won largest primary with 3.2 million votes; Abelardo de la Espriella polls at 16-32%
- Pacto Histórico will hold 26 Senate seats; Centro Democrático 17; no party has absolute majority
- 21 million voters participated in legislative elections, highest turnout since 1990
Colombia held legislative elections and party primaries that clarified the 2026 presidential race, with leftist Iván Cepeda, rightist Abelardo de la Espriella, and conservative Paloma Valencia emerging as frontrunners in a fragmented political landscape.
Colombia moved closer to choosing its next president on Sunday when voters cast ballots in legislative elections and three separate party primaries, clarifying both the composition of Congress for the next four years and the field of candidates who will compete to succeed Gustavo Petro on May 31st. The country's bicameral legislature will seat 103 senators and 183 representatives beginning in 2026, but the real story emerging from the voting was not which party won the most seats—though the leftist Pacto Histórico, Petro's own movement, reinforced its position as the largest force—but rather that the next president will inherit a fractured Congress incapable of delivering the kind of legislative majorities that allow bold reform.
Three candidates have begun to separate themselves from a crowded field. Iván Cepeda, a 63-year-old leftist senator from the Pacto Histórico, leads most polls with between 30 and 37 percent support, though that falls well short of the 51 percent needed to win outright in the first round. Cepeda represents continuity with Petro's project: he was instrumental in peace negotiations with the FARC, has spent decades championing human rights, and testified against former president Álvaro Uribe in a case involving witness tampering. His father, a Communist Party member, was assassinated by state agents working with paramilitaries in 1994. Cepeda's platform centers on dialogue to end the armed conflict, raising the minimum wage, cutting congressional perks, and redistributing land in a nation where property ownership remains starkly unequal.
On the right, Abelardo de la Espriella, a 47-year-old lawyer and businessman, has built a hard-line conservative movement called Defensores de la Patria around themes of security and anti-corruption. His polling has been volatile, ranging from 16.7 to 31.9 percent depending on the survey. De la Espriella has drawn criticism for having represented Álex Saab, a Colombian businessman accused by the United States of serving as a front man for Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro in a corruption scheme. De la Espriella told El Tiempo that he stopped working with Saab six years ago and that their professional relationship predated the allegations against Saab. He has positioned himself as an admirer of conservative leaders like Nayib Bukele, Donald Trump, and Giorgia Meloni, framing his movement not as ideological but as embodying "extreme coherence." He has repeatedly warned that Colombia faces an existential moment and accused Petro's government of trying to entrench itself in power.
The third frontrunner emerged from Sunday's voting itself. Paloma Valencia, a 48-year-old senator and lawyer from the Centro Democrático, the party of former president Uribe, won the largest primary of the day with more than 3.2 million votes—more than quadruple the turnout of the other two primaries combined. She defeated prominent rivals including economist Juan Daniel Oviedo, former Defense Minister Juan Carlos Pinzón, journalist Vicky Dávila, and Juan Manuel Galán, whose father, Luis Carlos Galán, was assassinated in 1989 in a killing attributed to the Medellín Cartel working with state agents. Valencia's decisive victory positions her to challenge De la Espriella for the right-wing vote in what analysts describe as a strategic shift by the Uribe faction toward the political center.
Two other candidates won their respective party primaries but trail the frontrunners. Roy Barreras, a former senator and ambassador to the United Kingdom, narrowly defeated Daniel Quintero, the former mayor of Medellín, in the leftist Frente por la Vida primary, securing just over 250,000 votes compared to the 1.5 million that Cepeda received in the Pacto Histórico's primary in October. Barreras is seen as more moderate than Cepeda and potentially better positioned to build coalitions, but Sunday's results suggested his candidacy has lost momentum. Claudia López, the former mayor of Bogotá, won the centrist Consulta de las Soluciones, defeating professor Leonardo Huerta. She will compete for the center-left vote against Sergio Fajardo, the 69-year-old former mayor of Medellín and former governor of Antioquia, who is running for president for the third time.
A dozen other candidates have declared their intention to run, including several former ministers and a former comptroller general, but none registers meaningfully in polling. The legislative results themselves underscored the fragmentation that will constrain whoever wins. The Pacto Histórico secured 23 percent of Senate votes and is projected to hold 26 seats in the upper chamber, while the Centro Democrático took nearly 16 percent and will hold 17 seats. The Green Alliance, the traditional Liberal and Conservative parties, and several smaller movements will control enough seats to block any president's agenda. Petro himself has struggled repeatedly with this dynamic, managing to pass a tax reform, a pension reform, and a labor reform only after protracted negotiations and constant compromise. The next president will face the same constraints, suggesting that regardless of who wins in May, Colombia's next four years will be marked by the kind of difficult, incremental governance that has frustrated reformers and empowered obstruction.
Notable Quotes
No importa quién gane, se enfrentará a un Congreso polarizado con difícil gobernabilidad— Alejandro Chala, political scientist at Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Valencia gana una consulta exitosa y ahora toca ver si logra desplazar a De la Espriella— Yann Basset, political scientist at Universidad del Rosario
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does it matter that the Pacto Histórico won the most legislative seats but still lacks an absolute majority?
Because it means the next president—whether Cepeda or someone else—cannot simply pass laws. Every significant reform requires negotiating with parties that may oppose it. Petro learned this the hard way.
So Cepeda leads the polls but isn't close to winning outright. What changes between now and May 31st?
Everything. These primary results are just the opening move. De la Espriella and Valencia will now fight for the right-wing vote. Barreras might fade entirely. Coalitions will form. Endorsements will shift. The race is genuinely open.
Valencia won 3.2 million votes in her primary. That's enormous. Does that mean she's actually the strongest candidate?
It means the conservative movement mobilized heavily for her, and it suggests the right is consolidating. But primary turnout doesn't predict general election performance. De la Espriella didn't run in a primary—he's been building support directly. We won't know until May.
What's the real liability for De la Espriella, the Saab connection?
It's significant because Saab represents everything De la Espriella claims to oppose—corruption, ties to Maduro, shadowy dealings. His explanation that he stopped working with Saab years ago may satisfy some voters, but it's a vulnerability his opponents will exploit.
Cepeda's father was killed by the state. Does that shape how he approaches governance?
Almost certainly. His entire career has been built on dialogue and human rights. He's not a firebrand. He believes in negotiation even with armed groups. That's either his strength or his weakness, depending on what voters want.
What happens if none of these three reaches 51 percent?
A runoff on June 21st between the top two finishers. That's when the real scrambling begins—endorsements, coalition-building, the candidate in third place becomes kingmaker.