The most intense El Niño in thirty years is coming
Cada cierto número de años, el océano Pacífico reconfigura sus corrientes térmicas y el mundo entero siente el eco: sequías donde antes llovía, calor donde antes había frescura. Colombia se prepara ahora para enfrentar el episodio de El Niño más intenso en tres décadas, uno que llegará en septiembre y pondrá a prueba no solo los embalses y las redes eléctricas, sino la seguridad alimentaria de millones de personas. Es el recordatorio perenne de que las sociedades humanas, por más que se organicen, siguen siendo huéspedes del clima.
- A partir de septiembre, Colombia podría vivir el El Niño más severo desde hace 30 años, con temperaturas que en el Caribe podrían rozar los 40°C y lluvias que se desplomarán de forma drástica.
- Las represas hidroeléctricas —columna vertebral del sistema energético del país— comenzarán a vaciarse justo cuando la demanda de agua y electricidad se dispare por el calor extremo.
- El campo colombiano enfrentará un golpe triple: cultivos marchitos por la sequía, ganado sin pastos frescos y costos de producción elevados por fertilizantes y combustibles que no ceden.
- Los incendios forestales, compañeros históricos de El Niño, amenazan con extenderse por regiones ya debilitadas por la falta de humedad y las altas temperaturas.
- El gobierno de Petro ha comenzado a emitir directrices de contingencia, pero el margen para actuar es estrecho y las autoridades regionales están siendo urgidas a ejecutar planes de conservación de inmediato.
Colombia se prepara para lo que los científicos del clima describen como el episodio de El Niño más intenso en tres décadas. El fenómeno comenzará a sentirse con fuerza a partir de septiembre y ya ha puesto en movimiento al gobierno del presidente Petro, que circula medidas regulatorias orientadas a proteger los sistemas de embalses antes de que las lluvias escaseen y las temperaturas alcancen niveles históricos. En la costa Caribe, algunas zonas podrían aproximarse a los 40 grados Celsius.
El Niño opera alterando los patrones térmicos del Pacífico tropical: el agua cálida se expande, los vientos alisios se debilitan y la circulación atmosférica global se desordena. Para Colombia, el diagnóstico es claro y severo: menos lluvia, más calor, embalses bajo presión. Como el país depende en gran medida de la generación hidroeléctrica, la reducción de precipitaciones amenaza directamente el suministro de energía. Aunque aún no se habla de racionamiento oficial, las autoridades regionales ya exigen acción inmediata.
Más allá de la electricidad, la crisis tocará los alimentos cotidianos. Antes de que termine el año, se espera que suban los precios de la leche, el arroz, las verduras y la carne. Los cultivos sufrirán por el calor y la sequedad del suelo; el ganado perderá acceso a pastos frescos; y los costos de producción seguirán elevados por fertilizantes y combustibles que no han bajado desde la pandemia. A esto se suman los incendios forestales, consecuencia casi inevitable de la combinación de calor, baja humedad y vegetación reseca.
Los episodios de El Niño duran entre nueve meses y dos años, y se presentan de forma irregular. Este ciclo se perfila como uno de los más graves, y tanto el gobierno nacional como las administraciones locales están en una carrera contra el calendario para blindar al país antes de que septiembre marque el inicio del embate.
Colombia is bracing for what climate scientists say will be the most intense El Niño event in three decades, a weather phenomenon that will begin bearing down on the country starting in September and could reshape everything from the nation's power grid to the price of milk at the grocery store. The Petro administration has already begun circulating directives and regulatory measures aimed at softening the blow—particularly on the country's reservoir systems, which will face severe stress as rainfall drops and temperatures climb to potentially record levels.
El Niño is fundamentally a disruption of the Pacific Ocean's normal thermal patterns. Warm water spreads across the tropical Pacific, weakening the trade winds that typically blow from east to west, which in turn scrambles atmospheric circulation patterns across the globe. The consequences are not uniform: while some regions flood, others dry out completely. In Colombia's case, the pattern is unambiguous and harsh. Rainfall will decline sharply. Temperatures will spike. The Caribbean coast faces the worst of it—some areas could see thermometers approach 40 degrees Celsius.
The immediate threat is to water and electricity. Colombia's power generation depends heavily on hydroelectric dams, and those reservoirs will shrink as precipitation falls. The government has not yet announced water or energy rationing, but regional administrators across the country are already pushing for immediate action on natural resource conservation plans. The clock is ticking, and the window to prepare is narrow.
But the crisis extends well beyond the power sector. By the end of this year, as drought conditions take hold, food prices are expected to begin their climb. Milk, rice, vegetables, and meat will all feel pressure. The agricultural sector will be squeezed from multiple angles simultaneously: crops will wither in the heat and dry soil, livestock will suffer from a shortage of fresh pasture, and production costs will remain elevated by expensive fertilizers and oil prices that have stayed near pandemic-era highs. The combination is a recipe for inflation in the foods that form the backbone of Colombian diets and household budgets.
Forest fires are another predictable consequence. Prolonged drought creates the conditions for wildfires to spread rapidly and burn intensely. The combination of heat, low humidity, and dry vegetation is a formula that has played out repeatedly across the region during previous El Niño cycles.
Scientists monitor ocean temperatures continuously, issuing early warnings that allow governments time to prepare contingency plans. El Niño events typically last between nine months and two years, and they arrive on irregular schedules—sometimes two years apart, sometimes seven. This particular cycle is expected to be severe, and Colombia's government and regional leaders are now in a race to implement protections before September arrives and the full force of the phenomenon settles over the country.
Citas Notables
Regional administrators are pushing for immediate implementation of natural resource conservation plans— Regional authorities across Colombia
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does El Niño hit Colombia so much harder than other countries in the region?
It's about geography and how the ocean warming disrupts rainfall patterns. Colombia sits in a zone where the phenomenon directly suppresses the rains that normally feed the country's rivers and reservoirs. Other countries nearby might actually get more rain during El Niño. Colombia gets less—sometimes dramatically less.
The government says it's already preparing. What does that actually mean in practical terms?
They're adjusting how water flows through the reservoir system, trying to preserve levels before the dry season hits hard. But it's a holding action. You can't create water that isn't falling from the sky. The real preparation is about rationing what you have and hoping the drought doesn't last as long as the worst historical cases.
Food prices rising by year-end—is that speculation or is there a mechanism that's already in motion?
It's mechanism. Crops are already planted for harvest later this year. If the drought hits as predicted, those yields will be lower. Livestock producers are already watching their feed costs climb. By September and October, when the worst heat arrives, the damage will be visible in the fields. Prices follow.
What happens to the people who depend on agriculture for their living?
They absorb the loss. Smaller farmers especially. A bad drought year can wipe out a season's income. Larger operations have more cushion, but even they feel it. And then the urban poor feel it when they buy food at the market.
Is there any scenario where this doesn't happen as badly as predicted?
If the event weakens, if rains come earlier than expected, if it's shorter than the models suggest. But the scientists monitoring the ocean temperatures aren't seeing signs of that. This one looks like it's going to be serious.