This is not the first time we have heard such statements
On a day consecrated to the memory of one war's end, Vladimir Putin stood in a quieter Moscow and declared that another war, too, was drawing to a close. The annual Victory Day parade — long a theater of Russian military confidence — proceeded without its customary armor, shaped by drone fears and steadied by a last-minute ceasefire that American diplomacy had coaxed into being. Putin's words carried the weight of a man setting conditions rather than making concessions: he would meet Zelensky only after peace was already written, and he would negotiate Europe's future security through old intermediaries rather than new trust. The gap between the claim of an ending and the fragile mechanics of that ending remains, for now, the defining space of this conflict.
- Putin declared the Ukraine war 'coming to an end' even as his Victory Day speech framed it as a just struggle forced upon Russia by a NATO-armed neighbor — the optimism and the grievance sitting uneasily side by side.
- Security fears ran high enough that Moscow stripped its iconic Red Square parade of all tanks and missiles, and barred most international journalists, turning a ceremony built to project power into a portrait of constraint.
- A Trump-brokered ceasefire over the weekend provided just enough calm for the parade to proceed, but a promised prisoner exchange of 1,000 per side had not yet been confirmed by Ukraine, exposing how thin the architecture of trust remains.
- Putin set a sequenced condition for any meeting with Zelensky: a final peace deal must come first, and only then would he travel to a third country to sign — a posture that places resolution perpetually one step beyond reach.
- Rather than engaging Ukraine's leadership directly, Putin named former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder — long a controversial figure in the West for his ties to Russian energy — as a preferred interlocutor for future European security talks.
Vladimir Putin chose Victory Day — the solemn anniversary of Soviet triumph in World War Two — to offer his most direct prediction yet about the war in Ukraine: it was, he said, coming to an end. The setting underscored the strangeness of the moment. Red Square, normally crowded with tanks and ballistic missiles rolling past the Kremlin in a choreographed display of state power, had been stripped bare. Drone threats from Ukraine had persuaded security officials to cancel the hardware entirely, and a ceasefire brokered by US President Donald Trump over the preceding weekend had provided just enough calm for the ceremony to proceed at all.
Yet Putin's optimism coexisted with familiar grievances. His Victory Day address had framed the Ukraine conflict as a war of necessity — one thrust upon Russia by an aggressive neighbor backed by the full weight of NATO. When reporters pressed him on Western support for Zelensky, he returned to that theme: promises of assistance had fueled a confrontation that dragged on. The war had already consumed years and millions of lives since Russia's seizure of Crimea in 2014 and its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Peace, in Putin's telling, would come on his terms and in his sequence. He would not meet Zelensky until a final agreement was already in hand — only then would he travel to a neutral country to sign. When asked whether Zelensky had expressed willingness to meet, Putin was skeptical: he had heard such statements before. For future European security arrangements, he named Gerhard Schröder, the former German Chancellor and longtime Kremlin-adjacent figure, as a preferred interlocutor — a choice that said much about how Putin imagined diplomacy: through established relationships, not new ones.
The ceasefire had included a pledge to exchange 1,000 prisoners on each side, but as of Putin's remarks, Russia had received no word from Ukraine on whether those swaps would actually proceed. Even the pause in fighting, it seemed, rested on uncertain ground. The parade that had always been Russia's most confident public gesture had become, this year, something quieter and more telling — a ceremony held in the shadow of a war its host insisted was nearly over.
Vladimir Putin stood before reporters in Moscow on a day meant to celebrate Soviet victory in World War Two, and he offered a prediction about a very different war. The conflict with Ukraine, he said, was coming to an end. The claim arrived at a moment of unusual restraint: the annual military parade in Red Square, normally a showcase of tanks and missiles rolling past the Kremlin, had been stripped down to something far more modest. Security officials had feared Ukrainian drones might strike at the heart of Moscow during the ceremony. A last-minute ceasefire brokered by US President Donald Trump over the weekend had eased those fears enough to let the event proceed without incident.
Putin's optimism about the war's trajectory sat uneasily with the rest of what he said that day. Hours before his comments to the press, he had delivered a Victory Day speech framing the Ukraine conflict as a just war, one forced upon Russia by an aggressive neighbor armed and supported by the entire NATO alliance. When reporters pressed him on Western backing for President Zelensky's government, Putin returned to this theme: the West had promised assistance and then fueled a confrontation that persisted. "I think that the matter is coming to an end, but it is a serious matter," he said.
The war itself had a long history by this point. Russian forces had seized Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine in 2014, then launched a full-scale invasion in February 2022. Millions had been displaced. The fighting had ground on for years. Now, with Trump's ceasefire in place, Putin was signaling openness to talks—but on his terms. He would not meet Zelensky, he said, until a final peace agreement had been reached. Only then would he travel to a third country to sign a treaty. When asked whether Zelensky had expressed willingness to meet, Putin acknowledged he had heard such statements before. "This is not the first time we have heard such statements," he said, with a tone that suggested skepticism.
Putin indicated he would be open to negotiating new security arrangements for Europe, and he named a preferred partner for those talks: Gerhard Schröder, the former German Chancellor. Schröder had long been close to Putin and had worked for Russian state-owned energy companies—a connection that had made him controversial in the West. The choice signaled something about how Putin saw the path forward: not through direct engagement with Ukraine's leadership, but through intermediaries and great-power diplomacy.
The ceasefire agreement that Trump had brokered included a prisoner exchange: each side had agreed to swap 1,000 prisoners. But when Putin spoke on Saturday, he said Russia had not yet heard from Ukraine about whether those exchanges would actually happen. The detail suggested that even as both sides had agreed to pause the fighting, the mechanics of trust remained fragile.
The scaled-back parade itself told its own story. For nearly two decades, Red Square had been a stage for Russian military might—a place where the Kremlin displayed its hardware to the world. This year, there were no tanks, no missiles, no show of force. The Kremlin had decided the security risk was too great. International journalists had largely been kept away as well, with many news organizations denied access to cover the event. The parade that was meant to project power had instead become a portrait of constraint, a ceremony held in the shadow of a war that Putin now claimed was winding down.
Citações Notáveis
I think that the matter is coming to an end, but it is a serious matter.— Vladimir Putin
A meeting in a third country is also possible, but only once final agreements have been reached on a peace treaty for a long-term historical perspective.— Vladimir Putin, on conditions for meeting Zelensky
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
When Putin says the conflict is coming to an end, what does he actually mean? Is he describing something that's happening on the ground, or is this more about positioning for negotiations?
It's hard to separate the two. He's clearly signaling that he's open to talks, but the conditions he's set—that Zelensky must agree to a final peace deal before they even meet—suggest he's not in a hurry. He's also still justifying the war itself, calling it just and necessary. So "coming to an end" might mean something very different to him than it does to Ukraine.
The parade being stripped of military hardware—that's striking. What does that tell us about the actual state of things?
It reveals the real anxiety underneath all the rhetoric. If Putin felt genuinely confident about the military situation, he wouldn't have feared drone strikes on Red Square. The fact that they needed a ceasefire just to hold a parade safely suggests the war is far more precarious than his words acknowledge.
Trump brokered this ceasefire. How much leverage does that give him in what comes next?
Potentially a lot, but it's unclear. Trump has relationships with both Putin and Zelensky, which makes him useful as a mediator. But the prisoner exchange hasn't even started yet, and Putin's already expressing doubt about Ukraine's willingness to follow through. Trust is the real problem here.
Why would Putin insist on meeting only after a final agreement is reached? Doesn't that seem backwards?
It's a power move. It means he doesn't have to negotiate with Zelensky directly—he can work through intermediaries like Schröder, set the terms, and only meet face-to-face once Ukraine has essentially already capitulated to those terms. It keeps him in control of the process.
And Schröder—why him specifically?
Because he's trusted by Putin and he's not bound by the constraints of official diplomacy. He can have conversations that a government representative couldn't. But it also signals that Putin sees this as a European problem to be solved between Russia and the West, not between Russia and Ukraine.