Trust in federal agencies crumbles while Americans turn to their doctors
In a season when institutional faith is already fragile, a new survey reveals that nearly six in ten Americans have lost confidence in the federal stewardship of public health under Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — with trust in the CDC's vaccine guidance falling to its lowest point since the pandemic's darkest days. What is unfolding is not merely a political controversy but a deeper rupture in the social compact between citizens and the agencies charged with protecting their lives. Americans, finding the center unstable, are quietly redistributing their trust — toward their doctors, their medical associations, and their state governments — in search of ground that still feels solid.
- Nearly 60% of Americans now disapprove of Kennedy's leadership of HHS, with vaccine policy drawing an even sharper rebuke at 62% — a rejection that crosses party lines and reaches into his own MAHA coalition.
- CDC credibility has collapsed to a historic low, with only half of adults trusting the agency on vaccines, a 13-point drop in under a year that signals an institutional crisis, not a polling blip.
- A contested FDA claim linking Tylenol use during pregnancy to autism — contradicting decades of safety research — landed in a public already primed for confusion, with most Americans unable to say with certainty whether it was true or false.
- The fracture is driving a quiet but consequential migration: over 80% of Americans now turn to their personal physicians for vaccine guidance, while medical associations like the AAP and AMA have begun publishing independent recommendations that some states have formally adopted.
- Federal health leadership is attempting to reframe the moment as a transparency initiative, but the numbers suggest the public has already moved — and the question is whether a decentralized web of doctors, associations, and state agencies can hold as a functional substitute.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s leadership of the Department of Health and Human Services has produced a measurable collapse in public confidence in federal health institutions. A Kaiser Family Foundation survey found that nearly six in ten Americans disapprove of his overall performance, with disapproval climbing to sixty-two percent on vaccine policy specifically — a steeper rejection than his general job ratings.
The political divide is pronounced but not absolute. While 87% of Democrats disapprove, roughly a quarter of Republicans share that view — and even within the MAHA movement that elevated Kennedy, about thirty percent of supporters express dissatisfaction. The coalition he was meant to energize is showing visible cracks.
The institutional damage is most visible at the CDC. Trust in the agency for vaccine information has fallen to fifty percent — its lowest point since Covid-19 emerged — down from sixty-three percent just a year ago. The sharpest decline has come among Democrats, who have pulled back twenty-four percentage points since 2023, though the erosion is broadly felt.
With federal guidance destabilized, Americans are redistributing their trust. More than eighty percent rely on their personal doctors — the highest confidence rating of any source. Two-thirds trust the American Academy of Pediatrics and the American Medical Association, both of which have broken with federal recommendations and issued independent guidance. Some states have formally adopted those alternatives, and trust in state governments for vaccine information now runs roughly ten points higher than trust in Kennedy himself.
The survey also captured public confusion following a contested FDA claim linking Tylenol use during pregnancy to autism risk — a claim that contradicts decades of established research. Fewer than five percent of respondents said they believed it was definitely true, but most fell into uncertain middle ground, with Republican women expressing particular hesitation.
HHS pushed back, arguing that institutional trust was already eroding before Kennedy's tenure and that the secretary remains committed to rebuilding it through transparency. But KFF president Drew Altman offered a more measured read: it is encouraging, if imperfect, that Americans still trust their doctors and medical associations even as faith in federal agencies crumbles. Whether that distributed trust can function as a durable alternative to centralized federal health leadership remains the open and urgent question.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s tenure leading the Department of Health and Human Services has fractured public confidence in federal health guidance at a scale not seen since the pandemic began. A new survey from the Kaiser Family Foundation found that nearly six in ten Americans disapprove of the way Kennedy is managing the nation's health agencies. The erosion cuts deepest on vaccines: sixty-two percent of adults disapprove of his vaccine policy specifically, a steeper rejection than his overall job performance.
The political divide is stark. Eighty-seven percent of Democrats disapprove of Kennedy's work, compared to twenty-six percent of Republicans. Yet even within the Make America Healthy Again movement—the Republican-led initiative focused on food, environment, and pharmaceuticals that brought Kennedy to prominence—roughly thirty percent of supporters say they disapprove of how he's handling his role. About four in ten Americans overall identify with the MAHA agenda, but that coalition is showing visible strain.
The damage to institutional trust is measurable and severe. Confidence in the CDC to provide reliable vaccine information has hit its lowest point since Covid-19 emerged. Only half of American adults now trust the agency on vaccines, down from fifty-seven percent in July and sixty-three percent in September 2024. The decline among Democrats is particularly sharp: trust has fallen twenty-four percentage points since 2023, suggesting the erosion spans ideological lines even as it remains most pronounced on the left.
With federal guidance destabilized, Americans are turning elsewhere. More than eighty percent trust their own doctor for vaccine information—the highest confidence rating for any source. Two-thirds trust the American Academy of Pediatrics and the American Medical Association, professional organizations that have broken with federal recommendations and published their own guidance. Some states have formally adopted these alternative recommendations. About forty-five percent trust their state government for vaccine information, roughly ten percentage points higher than trust in Kennedy himself.
The timing of the survey—conducted in late September, just after the Trump administration announced that the FDA would warn doctors about Tylenol use during pregnancy and autism risk—captured a moment of particular confusion. The claim contradicts decades of safety research. When asked about it, fewer than five percent of Americans said they thought the claim was definitely true, and about a third said definitely false. But the majority fell somewhere in the middle, uncertain. Women expressed particular hesitation: more than a third of Democratic women and about two-thirds of Republican women said they weren't sure whether the claim held validity.
The HHS responded to the poll by noting that public health institutions faced trust challenges before Kennedy arrived, and said the secretary remains committed to rebuilding confidence through transparency and rigorous science. But the numbers suggest the public has already begun looking elsewhere. Drew Altman, president of KFF, called it encouraging, if far from ideal, that Americans still trust professional medical associations even as faith in federal agencies crumbles. The question now is whether that distributed trust in doctors, state governments, and medical societies can hold as a functional alternative to centralized federal health leadership.
Notable Quotes
It's encouraging if far from ideal that as trust in our nation's scientific agencies crumbles, the public does trust the professional associations who have stepped forward— Drew Altman, KFF President and CEO
The Secretary remains committed to rebuilding public trust in HHS and its entities through transparency and gold standard science— HHS statement
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Kennedy's vaccine policy disapproval run so much higher than his overall job disapproval—sixty-two percent versus fifty-eight percent?
Vaccines touch something primal in people. They're about protecting children. When federal guidance shifts dramatically, people notice. Kennedy's team has completely overhauled the independent committee advising the CDC on vaccines and changed major recommendations. That's not abstract policy—it's visible, it's about their kids, and it's happened fast.
But he has Republican support. Why is even a third of MAHA supporters disapproving of him?
The movement was built on a specific vision—food, environment, pharmaceuticals. But once you're in power, you have to actually govern. Some of his supporters may have liked the critique of the system more than they like the alternative he's building. Or they're watching the same data everyone else is and getting nervous.
The Tylenol-autism announcement seems like it should have been obviously false to most people. Why the uncertainty?
Because the federal government just said it. When the FDA speaks, people listen, even when it contradicts what they've heard before. That's actually what trust means—people believe you. Once you've spent that trust, it's hard to get back. And women especially are in a bind: they want to believe their government, but they also want to protect their pregnancies. Uncertainty feels safer than either extreme.
If people trust their doctors more than anyone else, does that solve the problem?
It solves it locally, maybe. Your doctor knows you, knows your history. But doctors also need guidance from somewhere. If the CDC is broken and the professional associations are publishing their own recommendations, you've fragmented the system. Doctors are now the glue holding it together, and that's a lot of weight on individual relationships.