In the spring of 2026, two physicists discovered that an equation originally developed to describe how glass shatters under stress could also trace twelve thousand years of human population history with surprising fidelity. Alessio Zaccone and Kostya Trachenko were not prophesying catastrophe — they were revealing something quieter and more unsettling: that the mathematics of fragility may be universal, applying as readily to civilizations as to disordered solids. Their most extreme scenario, a halving of global population by 2064, requires a convergence of shocks that no serious forecaster co
CPG Click Petróleo e Gás
· Jun 08, 2026
· society
· 5 min read
Medium
Sourcing: Characterized
Physics equation suggests world population could halve by 2064 under extreme scenario
Under the extreme scenario modeled, global population would decline from 8 billion to approximately 4 billion by 2064, representing displacement and mortality on an unprecedented scale.
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Geopolitical Impact
🌎
A physics model projects potential global population halving to 4 billion by 2064 under extreme carrying capacity collapse, though researchers emphasize this is illustrative scenario, not prediction.
Escalation Risk
low
Confidence
LOW
Global
Europe
Asia
Africa
Americas
If realized, such demographic collapse would fundamentally reshape geopolitical power structures, potentially benefiting nations with higher population retention rates and destabilizing those dependent on growth. Resource competition would intensify among survivors, while developed nations' technological advantages might become decisive in population management scenarios.
Similar to 14th-century Black Death projections and post-WWII population anxieties, though those were based on observable crises rather than theoretical models. Echoes Cold War-era doomsday scenarios about resource depletion.
Economic Lens
📈
Physics model projects extreme scenario of global population halving to 4B by 2064 if Earth's carrying capacity suddenly drops; authors emphasize this is illustrative, not predictive.
Market Signal
neutral
Confidence
LOW
Energy and Oil & Gas
Agriculture and Food Production
Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals
Real Estate and Construction
Consumer Goods and Retail
Labor and Employment
Infrastructure and Utilities
Under this extreme scenario, consumers would face severe resource scarcity, reduced access to goods and services, potential economic contraction, and significant lifestyle disruptions. However, the authors explicitly state this is not a prediction, limiting immediate consumer concern.
While presented as illustrative rather than predictive, this model could prompt policy discussions around sustainability, carrying capacity planning, resource management, and climate adaptation strategies. Governments may increase focus on demographic planning and resource security initiatives.