Oil marketing companies are trying to recover losses incurred during the conflict
For the twelfth time in less than two weeks, India's oil marketing companies have raised fuel prices, a rhythm set in motion by the war between Russia and Ukraine and felt most acutely at the petrol pump by ordinary citizens. A nation that imports nearly nine of every ten barrels of oil it consumes cannot insulate itself from the tremors of distant conflicts, and so the price of movement — of goods, of livelihoods, of daily life — rises again. Analysts warn this is not yet the end of the correction, but perhaps only its middle passage.
- Fuel prices have risen twelve times since March 22, with each 40-45 paise increment compounding the financial pressure on Indian households already stretched thin.
- Oil marketing companies are absorbing war-driven losses and need prices to climb a further Rs 15 per litre just to reach the break-even point — meaning consumers are not yet paying the full cost of the crisis.
- India's 85% dependence on imported oil means every geopolitical shock abroad — from a Russian missile strike to a Houthi ceasefire — registers almost immediately at domestic fuel stations.
- A brief ceasefire between Saudi Arabia and Houthi forces nudged global crude prices slightly downward, but analysts caution that this offers India no durable shelter from the broader storm.
- Experts forecast an additional Rs 12-15 per litre in increases ahead, suggesting the current pain is a prologue rather than a peak.
Across India on Monday, petrol and diesel prices rose for the twelfth time since late March, climbing another 40 to 45 paise per litre. In Delhi, petrol now costs Rs 103.81 and diesel Rs 95.07. The numbers are steeper elsewhere — Mumbai's petrol has reached Rs 118.83, while Chennai, Kolkata, and Bengaluru each carry their own burdens above the hundred-rupee threshold.
The current spiral traces back to March 22 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Before that, prices had already climbed to historic highs, prompting the central government to cut excise duties in a bid to offer relief. That reprieve proved short-lived. Now, oil marketing companies are openly trying to recover losses incurred during the conflict, with industry sources indicating that retailers need prices to rise by Rs 15 per litre simply to break even. Market analysts are forecasting further increases of Rs 12 to Rs 15 per litre in the months ahead.
The structural vulnerability behind these numbers is stark. India imports roughly 85 percent of its oil, making it one of the world's most exposed economies to international crude price swings. Any geopolitical disruption — any shift in the decisions of major producers — passes almost immediately into the household budgets of 1.4 billion people.
Global crude futures offered a flicker of relief this week. Brent crude dipped to USD 103.38 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate fell to USD 98.43, modest declines tied to news of a ceasefire between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi group. Analysts acknowledged that easing supply threats could soften pressure. But the broader trajectory remains deeply uncertain, and for India, calm in distant waters has rarely meant calm at the pump.
Oil marketing companies across India raised petrol and diesel prices by 40 to 45 paise per litre on Monday, marking the twelfth increase since late March. In Delhi, a litre of petrol now costs Rs 103.81, with diesel at Rs 95.07. The numbers climb sharply in other major cities: Mumbai's petrol reached Rs 118.83 per litre, while diesel there sits at Rs 103.07. Chennai saw petrol priced at Rs 109.34 and diesel at Rs 99.42. Kolkata's petrol stands at Rs 113.45, diesel at Rs 98.22. In Bengaluru, consumers pay Rs 109.41 for petrol and Rs 93.23 for diesel.
The relentless upward march began on March 22, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Before that, fuel prices had climbed to historic highs in India, prompting the central government to cut excise duties in an effort to provide relief. That reprieve lasted only weeks. Now, as geopolitical tensions reshape global energy markets, the price spiral has resumed with a vengeance.
Industry sources and market analysts point to a single explanation: oil marketing companies are trying to recover losses incurred during the conflict. According to industry sources quoted by news agency PTI, fuel retailers need prices to rise by Rs 15 per litre just to break even on their operations. Market experts are now forecasting further increases of Rs 12 to Rs 15 per litre in the months ahead, suggesting that what consumers are experiencing now may be only the beginning of a longer correction.
The vulnerability runs deep. India imports roughly 85 percent of its oil from overseas markets, making the country acutely sensitive to international crude price movements. Any disruption to global supply, any geopolitical shock, any shift in the calculus of major oil producers ripples immediately through Indian petrol pumps and into the household budgets of 1.4 billion people.
Global crude futures have shown some volatility in recent days. Brent crude fell by USD 1.01, or 1 percent, to USD 103.38 a barrel on Tuesday. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 84 cents, or 0.9 percent, to USD 98.43 a barrel. The modest declines followed news of a ceasefire agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi group, which had threatened shipping lanes and regional stability. Analysts noted that any reduction in supply threats could ease pressure on prices. Yet the broader trajectory remains uncertain, and India's dependence on global markets means that stability abroad is no guarantee of stability at home.
Citas Notables
Fuel prices need to be increased by Rs 15 a litre for fuel retailers to break even— Industry sources quoted by PTI
A ceasefire would reduce the threat to supply— Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group, on the Yemen ceasefire
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Why does India feel these price shocks so acutely compared to other countries?
Because we import 85 percent of our oil. We're not sitting on reserves. Every barrel we burn comes from overseas, so when global prices move, we move with them—sometimes faster, because our retailers have to recover losses immediately.
The article mentions OMCs need Rs 15 per litre just to break even. How did they get into that position?
The Russia-Ukraine war disrupted supply chains and pushed crude prices up sharply. OMCs were caught between government pressure to keep prices stable and the reality of their rising costs. They absorbed losses for weeks. Now they're trying to catch up all at once.
Is there any relief in sight, given that crude futures fell recently?
A little, maybe. The ceasefire in Yemen reduced one supply threat. But that's fragile. One new conflict, one production cut, and we're back where we started. The real issue is that India has no buffer—no strategic reserves large enough to insulate us from these shocks.
What does Rs 12-15 more per litre actually mean for an ordinary person?
It compounds. Transportation costs rise. Goods become more expensive to move. Delivery services, taxis, buses—everything gets more expensive. For someone already stretched, it's another weight on the budget. For businesses, it's a margin squeeze they can't always pass on to customers.
Could the government step in again with excise cuts?
They could, but they already did once. The fiscal space is limited, and cutting excise again means less revenue for roads, schools, hospitals. It's a choice between immediate relief and long-term investment. There's no clean answer.