If everyone accelerates at once, we'll cause a price drop that hurts the entire industry
Peru's avocado industry, having broken export records just last year, now finds itself caught between the rhythms of a destabilized climate and the unforgiving logic of global commodity markets. Coastal temperatures running well above historical norms are shrinking fruit and compressing harvest windows, threatening to push the entire season's volume into a single, market-flooding moment. The deeper question is not merely agronomic but human: whether thousands of individual producers, each responding rationally to their own circumstances, can act with enough collective restraint to protect the whole.
- Temperatures 3–5°C above historical norms are forcing avocados to mature weeks ahead of schedule, collapsing a harvest window that should last into September into one that may end by mid-August.
- Growth projections have been slashed three times in a matter of weeks—from 7% to 6% to 3%—with industry leaders now warning that even zero growth is possible if climate and disease pressures compound.
- Peruvian avocados are already selling below the global average at $2.01–$2.15 per kilogram, leaving almost no buffer before prices turn punishing—a 33% price collapse in August 2025 stands as a recent and vivid warning.
- Disease risk from coastal humidity and water stress in highland regions adds a second front of vulnerability, threatening both yield quality and the physiological processes that determine next season's fruit set.
- ProHass is urging exporters to stagger shipments and resist panic-harvesting, betting that coordinated discipline can prevent the kind of simultaneous market flood that devastated prices just twelve months ago.
Peru's avocado industry is entering a precarious season. Last year the country shipped a record 723,000 metric tons of Hass avocados—38 percent more than the year before—and through mid-May exports were still running nearly 8 percent ahead of 2025 levels. But the momentum is masking a gathering crisis.
The industry's trade association, ProHass, has revised its full-year growth forecast downward three times in quick succession, landing at roughly 3 percent—and its president, José Antonio Castro, has warned that even that figure may not hold. The cause is climate. Minimum temperatures along Peru's coast are running 3 to 5 degrees Celsius above the 45-year historical average, causing fruit in northern growing regions to come in smaller than normal and to mature far earlier than planned. A harvest that should stretch into mid-September could now end by mid-August, three to four weeks ahead of schedule.
The compressed timeline creates a dangerous incentive: if every producer rushes to pick and ship at once, international markets get flooded simultaneously. Peruvian avocados are already selling at $2.01 to $2.15 per kilogram in their three main markets—the Netherlands, Spain, and the United States—well below the global average of $2.65. The industry knows what a volume surge looks like. In the first half of 2025, a 35 percent jump in exports saturated Europe and sent prices down 33 percent in a single month, bottoming out at $1.71 per kilogram.
Beyond the harvest timing problem, Peru's meteorological service has flagged additional risks through August: persistent coastal humidity likely to breed tree disease, heat and drought stress in highland regions around Ayacucho, and potential water stress in Huánuco during the critical fruit development phase. An agroclimate specialist points to El Niño as the underlying driver, though its effects are contradictory—capable of both delaying and accelerating harvests depending on local conditions, making planning difficult.
ProHass is now pressing exporters to stagger their shipments and resist the panic that could turn a difficult season into a catastrophic one. Whether the industry can hold that discipline—when every individual producer has reason to move fast—is the question that will define the next three months.
Peru's avocado industry is bracing for a difficult season. Last year, the country shipped 723,000 metric tons of Hass avocados—the variety that accounts for 96 percent of all Peruvian avocado exports—a record volume and 38 percent more than 2024. Through mid-May of this year, exporters had already moved 252,050 tons internationally, up 7.91 percent from the same period in 2025. But the momentum is fragile, and the months ahead look uncertain.
Just weeks ago, ProHass, the industry's main trade association, was projecting 7 percent growth for the full year. In early May, they downgraded that to 6 percent. This week, the organization's president, José Antonio Castro, told a trade publication the figure would likely be closer to 3 percent—roughly 746,650 tons total—and warned that even that modest gain might not materialize. The culprit is climate. Minimum temperatures along Peru's coast are running 3 to 5 degrees Celsius above the historical average for the past 45 years. The orchards are responding in ways producers did not anticipate.
In northern growing regions, fruit is coming in smaller than normal. The heat is limiting how much the avocados can grow. More troubling still, the accelerated maturation is pushing farmers to harvest earlier than planned. What should stretch into mid-September could now end by mid-August—three to four weeks ahead of schedule. The compressed timeline creates a cascade of problems. If all producers rush to pick and ship simultaneously, they flood international markets with fruit at the same moment, and when supply surges like that, prices collapse.
Castro is explicit about the danger. "What we're trying to communicate is that we shouldn't panic," he said. "If everyone accelerates their harvests at once and fills the markets with fruit, we'll end up causing a price drop that hurts the entire industry." Right now, Peruvian avocados are selling for $2.01 to $2.15 per kilogram in the Netherlands, Spain, and the United States—the three largest markets—well below the global average of $2.65 per kilogram. The industry remembers what happened in the first half of 2025. A 35 percent surge in export volume saturated Europe. Prices fell 33 percent in August alone, bottoming out at $1.71 per kilogram.
The National Meteorological and Hydrological Service has issued new agricultural risk forecasts for avocado-growing regions through August. Central and southern coastal areas face persistent humidity that will likely breed diseases that attack avocado trees. In the central highlands, particularly around Ayacucho, dry conditions and above-normal heat are expected to create medium to high agroclimate risk. The stress could damage the physiological processes that lead to flowering and fruit set. In Huánuco, where Hass and Fuerte varieties are in fruit development, normal to above-normal rainfall in June and July will give way to drier conditions in August, potentially triggering water stress that reduces harvest quality.
Ulises Osorio, an agroclimate specialist, points to El Niño as the deeper driver. The phenomenon, currently active in Peru, can disrupt flowering and fruit growth, cutting yields. The thermal effect could delay harvest by about 15 days—though that conflicts with other signals of acceleration, suggesting the climate picture is volatile and unpredictable. Osorio advises producers to apply bioestimulants and nutrients, and to wait for fruit to mature fully before picking, so solids content rises and quality improves.
The industry's challenge now is coordination. ProHass is urging exporters to manage shipments carefully, spreading volume across weeks rather than dumping it all at once. If that discipline holds, Peru might navigate the season without a price catastrophe. If it breaks—if fear drives producers to harvest and ship in a panic—the market could punish them the way it did last year. The next three months will test whether the industry can think collectively when individual incentives push toward speed.
Citas Notables
What we're trying to communicate is that we shouldn't panic. If everyone accelerates their harvests at once and fills the markets with fruit, we'll end up causing a price drop that hurts the entire industry.— José Antonio Castro, president of ProHass
El Niño could affect avocado flowering and fruit growth, harming yields, and producers should apply bioestimulants and nutrients while waiting for fruit to mature fully.— Ulises Osorio, agroclimate specialist
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does the timing of the harvest matter so much? Isn't fruit just fruit?
Because price is set by supply and demand. If Peru floods the market with 50,000 tons in a single week, buyers have no reason to pay premium prices. They can wait, negotiate down, play producers against each other. Spread that same volume across six weeks, and the market stays tighter.
So this year's early harvest is a self-inflicted wound?
Not entirely self-inflicted. The heat is real—temperatures 3 to 5 degrees above normal for 45 years. That's forcing the fruit to mature faster. But yes, how producers respond to that signal is a choice. They can panic and all harvest at once, or they can coordinate.
What happened in 2025 that makes them so nervous?
A 35 percent surge in volume hit Europe and prices collapsed 33 percent in a single month. Growers who thought they were being smart by shipping early got crushed. The memory is fresh.
Can the weather forecasts actually help them avoid that?
Only if they believe them and act on them. The meteorological service is warning of disease pressure and stress conditions through August. That's useful information. But it's also a reason to panic—more risk, more reason to harvest now rather than later.
Is Peru losing its competitive edge?
Not yet. They're still the largest exporter. But the margin for error is shrinking. Climate volatility, disease pressure, price sensitivity—it's all tightening at once. The industry needs discipline it may not have.
What does success look like for ProHass over the next three months?
Getting through August without a price crash. Holding above $2 per kilogram. Keeping the industry intact so they can compete next year. That's the bar.