momentum was shifting in ways that surprised even seasoned observers
In the highlands and coastal cities of Peru, a nation was making up its mind. With the presidential runoff between rural schoolteacher Pedro Castillo and conservative heir Keiko Fujimori still weeks away, two respected polling houses captured a race in motion — Fujimori gaining ground rapidly while Castillo's lead quietly eroded. Nearly a third of the electorate remained uncommitted, a reminder that in democracies, the most consequential voices are often the ones not yet spoken.
- Fujimori surged nearly nine points in both the IEP and CPI surveys, transforming what looked like a comfortable Castillo lead into a genuinely competitive contest.
- Castillo, once riding first-round momentum, shed five points in recent tracking — a warning sign that enthusiasm among his base may be softening as the runoff approaches.
- Roughly 21 to 30 percent of voters remain undecided or plan to cast blank and null ballots, a bloc large enough to determine the presidency entirely on its own.
- Both campaigns are now racing to interpret fresh polling data, with IEP set to release new survey numbers on May 16th that could reshape strategy in the final stretch.
- The two candidates represent starkly opposed visions of Peru — leftist highlands schoolteacher versus conservative daughter of an imprisoned former president — making persuasion of the center a delicate and high-stakes task.
Peru's presidential runoff was weeks away, and the race was tightening in ways that surprised even seasoned observers. Pedro Castillo, a rural schoolteacher from the highlands running under the leftist Perú Libre banner, faced Keiko Fujimori, daughter of imprisoned former president Alberto Fujimori and leader of the conservative Fuerza Popular. Between them lay millions of voters, many still undecided as the final stretch began.
The Instituto de Estudios Peruanos released a telephone survey of 1,246 respondents showing Castillo ahead at 36.2 percent to Fujimori's 30 percent — but the trajectory told a more unsettling story for his campaign. Castillo had lost five percentage points since the previous measurement while Fujimori had gained nine. Meanwhile, 21.3 percent of respondents said they would vote blank or null, and another 8.6 percent remained genuinely undecided, leaving nearly 30 percent of the electorate still in play.
A second polling house, CPI, confirmed the same direction if not the exact figures. Their survey placed Castillo at 34.2 percent and Fujimori at 32 percent — up from just 23.1 percent in their prior measurement. The two firms disagreed on precise numbers but agreed on the essential truth: Fujimori was closing ground rapidly, and the outcome would be decided by voters who had not yet made up their minds.
With the IEP promising a fresh release of survey data on May 16th, both campaigns understood that every remaining day carried outsized weight. The persuadable pool was shrinking — but it remained large enough to determine who would govern Peru.
Peru's presidential runoff was less than a month away, and the race was tightening in ways that surprised even seasoned observers. The Instituto de Estudios Peruanos, one of the country's most respected polling firms, announced it would release fresh survey data on Sunday, May 16th—numbers gathered over three days from May 13th through the 15th. The institute promised new revelations, and in a campaign season already marked by volatility, that promise mattered.
The two candidates fighting for the presidency could not have been more different. Pedro Castillo, a rural schoolteacher from the highlands, represented Perú Libre, a leftist party. Keiko Fujimori, daughter of the imprisoned former president Alberto Fujimori, led Fuerza Popular, a conservative faction. Between them lay millions of Peruvian voters, many still undecided as the final stretch approached. The undecided bloc had been shrinking, according to recent measurements, but it remained substantial enough to determine the outcome.
The IEP's most recent survey, conducted by telephone, had captured something striking: momentum was shifting. The poll of 1,246 respondents showed Castillo at 36.2 percent support, still ahead of Fujimori's 30 percent. But the trajectory told a different story. Castillo had lost five percentage points since the previous measurement. Fujimori had gained nine. The survey broke down preferences by socioeconomic sector, gender, and geographic region—urban versus rural, coastal versus highland—painting a detailed map of where each candidate held ground and where they were losing it.
The undecided voters and those planning to cast blank or null ballots represented a significant force: 21.3 percent said they would vote blank or null, while 8.6 percent remained genuinely undecided. That meant nearly 30 percent of the electorate was still in play, a pool large enough to swing the election either direction.
A competing polling house, CPI, painted a slightly different but equally revealing picture. Their survey showed Castillo at 34.2 percent—down one point from their previous measurement—while Fujimori had climbed to 32 percent, a gain of nearly nine percentage points from her previous 23.1 percent. The race was narrowing. In CPI's accounting, 18.5 percent planned to vote blank or null, and 15.3 percent remained undecided. The two firms disagreed on the precise numbers, but they agreed on the direction: Fujimori was closing ground rapidly, Castillo's lead was eroding, and the final weeks would be decided by voters who had not yet made up their minds.
With the runoff still weeks away, both campaigns understood what the numbers meant. The pool of persuadable voters was shrinking but still large. Every speech, every appearance, every message mattered now. The IEP's promised Sunday release would give both sides fresh data to parse, fresh evidence of where the electorate was moving and why.
Citas Notables
The institute promised new revelations in its Sunday survey release— Instituto de Estudios Peruanos announcement
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does a single poll matter so much when you have two different firms showing different numbers?
Because the direction matters more than the absolute number. Both IEP and CPI show Fujimori gaining ground fast—nine points in both cases. That's not noise. That's a pattern.
But Castillo is still ahead in both polls. Isn't that what counts?
For now, yes. But if he's losing five points while she's gaining nine, the math gets uncomfortable for him. The trend line is what keeps campaigns awake at night.
What about all those undecided voters—nearly 30 percent in some measures?
That's the whole election right there. In a race this close, those voters aren't a footnote. They're the deciding factor. Both campaigns are fighting for them.
Why would IEP promise "new surprises" in their Sunday release?
Because they're building anticipation, sure, but also because the data probably shows something unexpected. Maybe Fujimori's surge is even steeper than people thought, or maybe there's a regional shift nobody saw coming.
Does it matter that one poll shows Castillo ahead by 6 points and another by only 2?
It matters tactically. If you're Fujimori, you see the narrower gap as proof you can win. If you're Castillo, you cling to the larger lead. But both camps see the same thing: the race is alive in a way it wasn't a week ago.