The electorate is increasingly polarized, with most minds already made up
In the weeks before Peru's presidential runoff, a nation reveals itself divided not merely by ideology but by geography — the rural south and east rallying behind leftist Pedro Castillo, while the capital Lima holds firm for conservative Keiko Fujimori. A fresh Instituto de Estudios Peruanos poll places Castillo at 36.5% nationally against Fujimori's 29.6%, a gap of nearly seven points that reflects something older and deeper than any single election: the enduring tension between Peru's urban center and its peripheral regions, between those who feel represented by the state and those who feel forgotten by it.
- Castillo's lead has widened to 6.9 percentage points nationally, a margin that, while not insurmountable, is growing more difficult for Fujimori to close with weeks remaining.
- Fujimori's Lima stronghold is showing cracks — she lost 3.3 points in the capital in a single week, suggesting even her most reliable base is not holding steady.
- Castillo dominates the south and east with nearly half of all voters in those regions behind him, making any Fujimori path to victory increasingly dependent on a Lima-centered strategy.
- Nearly one in four Peruvians plans to cast a blank or null ballot, a silent but powerful bloc whose final behavior could reshape the outcome entirely.
- With undecided voters shrinking to just 7.8%, the electorate is hardening — the race is becoming less about persuasion and more about turnout and geographic mobilization.
Peru's presidential runoff is crystallizing into a contest of two countries within one. A poll conducted May 13–15 by the Instituto de Estudios Peruanos shows Pedro Castillo, the leftist candidate of Perú Libre, holding 36.5% national support — a slight gain — while Keiko Fujimori of Fuerza Popular slips to 29.6%, widening the gap between them to 6.9 percentage points.
The geographic fault lines are sharp. Castillo commands the south with 49.6% and the east with 45.6%, and leads across the center and north as well. Fujimori's power is concentrated almost entirely in Lima Metropolitan, where she leads 38.4% to Castillo's 25.0% — yet even there, both candidates lost ground this week, hinting at restlessness in her most reliable territory. Outside the capital, her numbers are considerably weaker, reaching only 19.9% in the south and 20.0% in the center.
What makes the race particularly difficult to read is the weight of disillusionment: 23.6% of voters say they will cast blank or null ballots — nearly one in four — while the undecided share has fallen to just 7.8%. Most Peruvians have chosen their direction. The question now is whether Fujimori can find a way to speak to a country that largely lives beyond Lima's limits, or whether Castillo's deep regional roots will carry him across the threshold.
Peru's presidential race is tightening into a stark geographic divide. According to a fresh poll from the Instituto de Estudios Peruanos conducted May 13-15, Pedro Castillo, the leftist candidate from Perú Libre, holds 36.5% voter support nationally—a modest gain of 0.3 points from the previous week. Keiko Fujimori, the conservative standard-bearer of Fuerza Popular, trails at 29.6%, having lost 0.4 points. The gap between them now stands at 6.9 percentage points, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 points.
Castillo's strength lies decisively outside the capital. In Peru's southern regions, he commands 49.6% support, while in the east he reaches 45.6%. The center of the country backs him with 39.9%. Even in the north, where his lead is narrowest, he still captures 36.5%—though this represents a decline of 1.2 points from the previous survey. In other regions beyond these major zones, he draws 42.6% support.
Fujimori's base is concentrated in Lima Metropolitan, where she leads decisively with 38.4% to Castillo's 25.0%. Both candidates lost ground in the capital—Fujimori by 3.3 points and Castillo by 2.1 points—suggesting some volatility even in her stronghold. Elsewhere, her regional performance is weaker: 28.2% in the north (up 3 points), 20.0% in the center, 19.9% in the south, and 30.1% in the east. Outside the major regions, she draws just 24.9%.
The electorate is increasingly polarized. Nearly a quarter of voters—23.6%—say they will cast blank or null ballots, a significant portion that could shift the outcome depending on how it breaks. The undecided population has shrunk to just 7.8%, down from 8.6% the previous week, indicating that most Peruvians have already made up their minds about which direction they want the country to take. With the runoff election approaching, the race will likely hinge on whether Fujimori can expand her appeal beyond Lima, or whether Castillo's regional dominance proves decisive.
Citações Notáveis
Castillo gained 0.3 points while Fujimori lost 0.4 points, widening the gap— Instituto de Estudios Peruanos poll
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Why does Castillo's lead feel so fragile when it's nearly seven points?
Because Lima is a third of the country's population, and he's losing there badly. If turnout shifts or Lima swings, the whole race flips.
What's the blank vote about? Is that protest?
Some of it, probably. But it's also people genuinely torn, or rejecting both choices. In a runoff, those votes matter enormously—they're not locked in anywhere.
Fujimori gained three points in the north. Is she mounting a comeback?
In one region, maybe. But Castillo still leads there. She's fighting for scraps in most of the country. Her real battle is holding Lima and hoping something breaks her way nationally.
The undecided dropped from 8.6% to 7.8%. Does that mean the race is settled?
It means fewer people are sitting on the fence, but not that minds are made up forever. In a polarized election, people can shift fast if something happens—a scandal, a gaffe, a moment that changes how they see a candidate.
What does 23.6% blank or null actually mean for the outcome?
It's a wild card. If those voters stay home or spoil their ballots, Castillo's lead holds. If they break toward Fujimori, it tightens. If they break toward Castillo, he wins bigger. Right now, nobody knows.