The gap between them had shrunk to 6.2 points in two weeks
En las semanas previas a la segunda vuelta presidencial peruana, la distancia entre Pedro Castillo y Keiko Fujimori se ha comprimido de manera notable, pasando de veinte puntos a poco más de seis en apenas dos semanas. Lo que parecía una ventaja inamovible se revela ahora como un terreno en movimiento, donde los indecisos se definen y los votos en blanco recuerdan que una parte del electorado aún no encuentra su lugar en ninguno de los dos proyectos. Perú se aproxima al 6 de junio con una carrera abierta y una pregunta sin respuesta: ¿quién logrará convencer a quienes todavía dudan?
- La ventaja de Castillo se desplomó de 20 puntos a 6.2 en solo dos semanas, transformando una carrera que parecía decidida en una contienda incierta.
- Fujimori ganó casi 15 puntos porcentuales en ese mismo período, una remontada que sugiere que su campaña encontró un mensaje capaz de movilizar votantes.
- El primer debate en Chota, Cajamarca, parece haber sido el punto de inflexión que reconfiguró las preferencias del electorado.
- Los votos en blanco y nulos alcanzaron el 21.3%, una señal de que una porción significativa del país no se identifica con ninguno de los dos candidatos.
- Con los indecisos reduciéndose del 13.5% al 8.6%, el electorado se consolida, pero el resultado final permanece abierto a cualquier dirección.
A menos de un mes de la segunda vuelta presidencial en Perú, la carrera entre Pedro Castillo y Keiko Fujimori se ha transformado radicalmente. Una encuesta del Instituto de Estudios Peruanos, realizada entre el 3 y el 6 de mayo, sitúa a Castillo con el 36.2% de preferencias frente al 30% de Fujimori, una diferencia de 6.2 puntos que contrasta con la ventaja de 20 puntos que el candidato de Perú Libre ostentaba apenas dos semanas antes.
El movimiento es tan pronunciado que resulta difícil ignorarlo: Fujimori pasó del 15.5% al 30% en ese intervalo, mientras Castillo cedía más de cinco puntos. El primer debate, celebrado en Chota, en la región de Cajamarca, parece haber sido el catalizador de este giro. La encuesta, que consultó a 1,218 personas en 24 departamentos con un margen de error de 2.8 puntos, capturó el estado de ánimo del electorado justo después de ese encuentro.
Más allá de los números principales, el comportamiento del resto del electorado revela tensiones propias. Los votos en blanco y nulos llegaron al 21.3%, una cifra que habla de rechazo o desencanto. Los indecisos, en cambio, se redujeron del 13.5% al 8.6%, señal de que la segunda vuelta está obligando a tomar posición. Con el tiempo acortándose y el segundo debate en el horizonte, la pregunta ya no es si Fujimori puede acercarse, sino si puede alcanzar.
Less than a month before Peru's runoff election, the race for the presidency had tightened dramatically. Pedro Castillo, the leftist candidate from Perú Libre, held 36.2% support according to a new poll from the Instituto de Estudios Peruanos, while Keiko Fujimori of Fuerza Popular had climbed to 30%. The gap between them—6.2 percentage points—represented a striking compression of what had been a commanding lead just two weeks earlier.
The shift was unmistakable when set against the previous survey. On April 25, Castillo had enjoyed a 20-point advantage, commanding 41.5% to Fujimori's 15.5%. In the span of two weeks, she had gained nearly 15 points while he lost more than 5. The movement suggested that voters were consolidating around the two finalists as the June election drew near, and that Fujimori's campaign had found traction in the interim.
The poll, conducted by telephone from May 3 to May 6, surveyed 1,218 respondents across 24 departments, 146 provinces, and 421 districts—a sample that achieved 95% provincial representativeness. The margin of error was 2.8 points in either direction. The timing was significant: the survey captured voter sentiment in the days following the first debate, held in Chota, a province in Cajamarca. That debate appeared to have moved the needle.
Other segments of the electorate told their own story. Blank and null votes—a form of protest or abstention—reached 21.3%, a substantial share of the total. The undecided pool had shrunk considerably, falling from 13.5% to 8.6%, a decline of 4.9 percentage points. Another 3.8% said they would not vote at all. These numbers suggested that the runoff was crystallizing voter choices, even if many remained unsure or unwilling to commit to either candidate.
The narrowing race set up a volatile final stretch. Castillo retained the lead, but Fujimori had demonstrated she could move voters. With less than a month remaining, the outcome was no longer a foregone conclusion. The question now was whether the momentum that had carried Fujimori upward would continue, or whether Castillo's base would hold firm. The first debate had already shifted the terrain; the second would likely do so again.
Notable Quotes
The undecided pool had shrunk from 13.5% to 8.6%, a decline of 4.9 percentage points— Instituto de Estudios Peruanos poll
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
What explains such a dramatic swing in just two weeks? Did something specific happen?
The first debate in Cajamarca appears to have been the turning point. Before that, Castillo had a 20-point cushion. After the debate, Fujimori had closed the gap to 6 points. Voters were paying attention, and what they saw changed some minds.
But Castillo still leads. Why would anyone think Fujimori could actually win from here?
Because the trend is her direction. She gained 15 points in two weeks. If that momentum holds—or even continues at half that pace—she could overtake him before June. And there's still a second debate coming.
What about those blank and null votes—21.3%? That's huge.
It is. That's people rejecting both candidates, or protesting the choice itself. In a race this tight, that's a wild card. If even some of those voters break toward Fujimori, it changes everything.
The undecided voters dropped from 13.5% to 8.6%. Where did they go?
Some moved to Castillo, some to Fujimori, some probably to the blank/null category. The point is the race is consolidating. Fewer people are sitting on the fence. That usually favors the candidate with momentum.
So this is really about the debate performance?
It's the most obvious explanation. The poll was taken right after Chota. Something Fujimori said or did—or something Castillo failed to do—moved voters. In a polarized country, a single debate can shift the entire race.