The gap between them now stands at 6.2 percentage points
In the high-altitude drama of Peruvian democracy, a race once thought settled has reopened itself to uncertainty. Less than a month before the runoff, Pedro Castillo's lead over Keiko Fujimori has compressed from a wide margin to a narrower 6.2 points, as a first debate in Chota appears to have stirred the conscience of an electorate still searching for its footing. The movement of undecided voters — some toward each candidate, others toward abstention — speaks to a nation weighing not just two figures, but two very different visions of what Peru might become.
- Castillo's once-commanding 20-point advantage has collapsed to just 6.2 points in under two weeks, signaling a race that is no longer predictable.
- Fujimori gained 8.5 percentage points in a single survey cycle — one of the sharpest swings seen in the campaign — suggesting the first debate moved voters decisively.
- Nearly a quarter of the electorate is either undecided or planning to cast blank or null ballots, reflecting deep ambivalence about both candidates rather than enthusiasm for either.
- The shrinking pool of undecided voters — down from 13.5% to 8.6% — means the remaining persuadable electorate is smaller, making each future debate and campaign moment more consequential.
- With momentum clearly favoring Fujimori and the runoff weeks away, Castillo's campaign faces the urgent task of stabilizing support before the gap closes further.
Menos de un mes antes de la segunda vuelta peruana, la contienda entre Pedro Castillo y Keiko Fujimori ha dado un giro inesperado. Una encuesta del Instituto de Estudios Peruanos, realizada entre el 3 y el 6 de mayo, sitúa a Castillo con el 36.2% de intención de voto frente al 30% de Fujimori — una diferencia de apenas 6.2 puntos porcentuales.
El contraste con las cifras de hace dos semanas es revelador. El 25 de abril, Castillo lideraba con 41.5% frente al 21.5% de su rival. En ese breve intervalo, él perdió 5.3 puntos mientras ella ganó 8.5, una transformación que muchos atribuyen al primer debate celebrado en Chota, provincia de Cajamarca. El sondeo, que abarcó 1,218 personas en 24 departamentos, tiene un margen de error de 2.8 puntos.
El panorama más amplio revela una ciudadanía dividida e incierta: el 21.3% optaría por el voto en blanco o nulo, y el 8.6% aún no ha decidido su voto. Significativamente, ese grupo de indecisos se redujo desde el 13.5% anterior, lo que sugiere que el debate empujó a muchos a tomar posición — aunque no necesariamente hacia alguno de los dos candidatos.
Con la tendencia claramente favorable a Fujimori, Castillo conserva la delantera pero ya no la solidez de días atrás. Los próximos debates y cualquier acontecimiento en campaña podrían seguir acortando distancias en una carrera que, de repente, vuelve a estar abierta.
Less than a month before Peru's runoff election, the race between Pedro Castillo and Keiko Fujimori has tightened considerably. A new poll from the Instituto de Estudios Peruanos shows Castillo, the candidate from Perú Libre, holding 36.2% support, while Fujimori, representing Fuerza Popular, has climbed to 30%. The gap between them now stands at 6.2 percentage points—a significant compression from earlier surveys.
Two weeks prior, on April 25, Castillo had commanded a much more commanding position, leading 41.5% to Fujimori's 21.5%. In the span of just over a week, he lost 5.3 points while she gained 8.5, a dramatic shift that suggests momentum has begun moving in her direction. The survey was conducted May 3 through 6, following the first debate held in Chota, a province in Cajamarca, and appears to reflect how that confrontation may have altered voter calculations.
The poll captured 1,218 respondents distributed across 24 departments, 146 provinces, and 421 districts, achieving a provincial representation level of 95 percent. The margin of error sits at 2.8 percentage points above and below each national-level result. Beyond the two leading candidates, the picture grows more fragmented. Blank or null votes account for 21.3% of responses, suggesting a meaningful portion of the electorate remains either undecided about which candidate to support or actively opposed to both. Another 8.6% of voters have not yet made a choice, while 3.8% say they will not vote at all.
What stands out most sharply is the movement among undecided voters. That group shrank from 13.5% in the previous survey to 8.6% now—a drop of 4.9 percentage points. This suggests the debate pushed people off the fence, though not necessarily in a uniform direction. Some moved toward Castillo, others toward Fujimori, and still others toward abstention or a blank ballot.
With the runoff scheduled for less than a month away, the trajectory matters as much as the current numbers. Fujimori's gains have been steep and fast. If the trend continues at anything like its recent pace, the race could become genuinely competitive. Castillo retains a lead, but it is no longer the commanding margin it was just days before. The next debate, any new developments in either candidate's campaign, or shifts in how voters perceive the choice ahead could easily move the numbers further.
Citas Notables
The difference between both aspirants to the presidency narrowed to 6.2 percentage points, compared to previous polls.— Instituto de Estudios Peruanos
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why did Castillo's lead collapse so quickly? He went from 41.5% to 36.2% in two weeks.
The first debate happened right in the middle of that period. Something about how he or Fujimori performed on stage seems to have shifted how people were thinking about the choice.
But Fujimori gained 8.5 points. That's not just people moving away from Castillo—that's people actively moving toward her.
Exactly. She was at 21.5%, which is a weak position. Even a modest debate performance could have made her look more viable, more presidential. People who were skeptical of her might have seen something different.
What about all those blank votes—21.3%? That's huge.
It reflects real frustration. Some of those people may have voted for other candidates in the first round and now face a choice between two options they're not thrilled about. Blank votes are a form of protest.
So the undecided voters who dropped from 13.5% to 8.6%—where did they actually go?
That's the question. Some clearly moved to Fujimori. But others probably went to blank or null, or decided not to vote. The debate didn't necessarily convince them to pick a side—it just forced them to make a choice, even if that choice was to reject both candidates.