our efforts made in the last two years have gone down
When distant powers go to war, smaller nations often bear the weight of consequences they did not choose. Pakistan finds itself in precisely this position — its monthly oil import bill tripling to $800 million in the wake of a US-Iran conflict that erupted in late February, erasing two years of hard-won economic recovery. Yet Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has responded not with resignation but with diplomacy, positioning Islamabad as a rare neutral ground where American and Iranian delegations have already sat together for 21 hours, and where a second round of talks is now being prepared. It is the oldest of human bargains: a nation trades its geography and credibility for a chance to shape the forces that would otherwise simply crush it.
- Pakistan's oil import bill tripled from $300 million to $800 million in weeks, directly reversing two years of disciplined economic rebuilding.
- The crisis traces back to February 28, when a US-Israeli strike killed Iran's Supreme Leader, igniting a regional war whose shockwaves hit energy-dependent nations like Pakistan almost immediately.
- Rather than absorb the damage passively, Islamabad hosted 21 hours of US-Iran negotiations on April 11, producing an indefinitely extended ceasefire — a diplomatic outcome few thought possible.
- Iran's Foreign Minister made two visits to Pakistan within 48 hours, and President Trump signaled openness to phone diplomacy, suggesting both sides are leaving the door open.
- Pakistan is now preparing to host a second formal round of talks, betting that its role as indispensable intermediary is the only lever it has to ease the economic pressure grinding down its people.
In late April, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confronted a stark number with his cabinet: the country's monthly oil import bill had surged from $300 million to $800 million in a matter of weeks. The cause was the US-Iran conflict that had erupted on February 28, when American and Israeli forces struck Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggering a broader regional war. For Pakistan — already economically fragile and heavily dependent on energy imports — the spillover was immediate. Two years of careful economic progress, Sharif told his cabinet, had been undone by forces beyond Islamabad's control.
Yet Pakistan chose action over passivity. On April 11, Islamabad hosted 21 hours of negotiations between Iranian and American delegations — a significant breakthrough in a conflict that had seemed intractable. Senior figures including Field Marshal Asim Munir and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar led the effort, and the result was a ceasefire that was subsequently extended indefinitely. A task force was established to monitor the situation daily as the government sought to manage both the diplomatic and economic dimensions of the crisis.
The diplomatic momentum accelerated through the following days. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made two visits to Pakistan within 48 hours, meeting with both Munir and Sharif, while also traveling to Muscat and Moscow. He assured Sharif by phone that Iran would offer a positive response soon. On the American side, President Trump signaled willingness to pursue phone diplomacy and chose to extend the ceasefire rather than let it lapse — a sign that neither power was eager to resume full-scale warfare.
Pakistan is now preparing to host a second round of formal talks, having established itself as the essential intermediary in a conflict it did not start but cannot afford to ignore. The economic math is unforgiving: every week the war continues, oil costs climb and reserves shrink. Sharif has been candid that his government did not cause this crisis and cannot fully control it. But by offering its territory and credibility as neutral ground, Pakistan is attempting to reclaim some agency over its own fate — and the fate of a region on edge.
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif sat down with his cabinet in late April to confront a hard number: the country's monthly oil import bill had exploded from $300 million to $800 million in a matter of weeks. The cause was not a miscalculation or market shift, but the grinding conflict between the United States and Iran that had upended the entire region since late February. Two years of careful economic progress—the kind that takes discipline and time to build—had been undone by forces beyond Islamabad's control.
Sharif did not mince words about the damage. "Allah Almighty had placed our economy on a macro level, and we were growing in numbers, but as a result of this sudden war, our efforts made in the last two years have gone down," he told the cabinet. The tripling of oil costs was not merely a line item in a budget. It was a direct assault on a nation trying to stabilize itself. Yet even as he absorbed this blow, Sharif framed Pakistan's response not as passive suffering but as active diplomacy. Islamabad, he said, would continue working to ease tensions between Washington and Tehran and restore some semblance of peace to West Asia.
The conflict itself had erupted on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched a joint military strike against Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several senior commanders. Iran's retaliation had metastasized into a broader regional war that rippled across the Gulf. For a country like Pakistan—already fragile economically, already dependent on energy imports—the spillover effects were immediate and severe. A task force was now monitoring the situation daily, Sharif said, and collective action would be needed to weather the storm.
But Pakistan was not simply absorbing the crisis. It was attempting to shape it. On April 11, Islamabad had hosted marathon negotiations between Iranian and American delegations that stretched for 21 hours—a significant diplomatic breakthrough in a conflict that had seemed intractable. The talks involved Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan's top military figure, and Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, among other senior officials. Their work had borne fruit: the ceasefire between Iran and the United States, initially set for two weeks, had been extended indefinitely.
The momentum continued through the weekend. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made two separate visits to Pakistan within 48 hours, meeting with both Munir and Sharif to discuss the regional situation. Araghchi also traveled to Muscat and Moscow, consulting with other key players. When Sharif spoke with him by phone, Araghchi assured him that these meetings were conducted with genuine intent and that Iran would provide a positive response soon after consulting with its leadership. The choreography of these visits—rapid, coordinated, purposeful—suggested that something substantive was being negotiated.
On the American side, President Donald Trump had signaled openness to dialogue. He reiterated that US and Iranian officials could conduct phone talks to seek a peaceful resolution. His decision to extend the ceasefire indefinitely rather than let it expire was a signal that neither side was eager to resume full-scale warfare. Pakistan was now preparing to host a second round of formal talks between the two countries, positioning itself as the essential intermediary in a conflict that threatened to destabilize the entire region.
The calculus was clear: Pakistan's economic survival depended on ending this war. Every week the conflict continued, the oil bill climbed. Every month of elevated prices ate into reserves and squeezed ordinary Pakistanis. Sharif had acknowledged that neither he nor his cabinet had control over the forces that had set this crisis in motion. But through careful diplomacy, through offering its territory and its credibility as a neutral ground, Pakistan was trying to regain some agency. Whether the extended ceasefire would hold, whether the second round of talks would produce a lasting settlement, remained uncertain. What was clear was that Islamabad had no choice but to try.
Notable Quotes
If a week ago our bill was $300 million, today it has reached $800 million— Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif
Pakistan made sincere and coordinated efforts for the success of the negotiations, with contributions from Field Marshal Asim Munir and Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar— Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Pakistan's oil bill matter so much? It's one country's import cost.
Because Pakistan doesn't have reserves. It imports nearly all its oil. When prices spike across the region, it doesn't have a cushion. The $500 million increase in a few weeks is real money that has to come from somewhere—usually from other parts of the budget that keep the country running.
So Sharif is saying the economy was finally improving, and now it's broken again?
Not broken, but set back. Two years of work to stabilize things—getting inflation down, building reserves, attracting investment. That progress doesn't disappear, but it gets harder to sustain when your energy costs triple overnight. It's like climbing a hill and suddenly the slope gets steeper.
Why is Pakistan hosting these talks? Why not stay out of it?
Because staying out isn't an option. Pakistan sits between Iran and the Gulf. If the war spreads, it gets pulled in anyway. By hosting talks, by being the neutral ground, Sharif is trying to control what happens next rather than have it happen to him.
The 21-hour talks sound exhausting. Did they actually accomplish anything?
They extended the ceasefire indefinitely instead of letting it expire after two weeks. That's real. It means neither side wanted to go back to fighting, at least not immediately. Whether it leads to a permanent settlement is another question.
What does Sharif want from Iran and the US?
An end to the war. But more specifically, he wants them to negotiate a settlement before the ceasefire breaks down and the fighting resumes. Every day of peace buys Pakistan time to adjust to the new oil prices and plan its next move.
Is there any chance this actually works?
Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely, which suggests he's not eager to resume fighting. Iran's foreign minister is making the rounds, consulting with allies. There's movement. But these things are fragile. One miscalculation, one hardline faction pushing back, and it all collapses.