The oil market has proven extremely patient through this crisis
For the third consecutive day, the United States and Iran exchanged military strikes across one of the world's most vital arteries of commerce, and the price of oil rose to answer — as it always does when human conflict meets human need. Brent crude climbed to $84.91 a barrel, its highest in a month, while the Strait of Hormuz — through which a significant share of the world's energy flows — fell to half its normal traffic. What makes this moment particularly precarious is not merely the fighting itself, but the quiet exhaustion of the reserves that once gave the world room to absorb such shocks.
- Three days of US-Iran military exchanges — American strikes on Iranian shipping capacity, Iranian retaliation against tankers and US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain — have shattered a June peace agreement and sent oil traders into a rapid reassessment of global risk.
- Brent crude surged 2% on Tuesday to $84.91 a barrel, capping a nearly 10% rise from the day before, as markets priced in the possibility that this conflict could choke the world's most critical oil corridor.
- Strait of Hormuz transits collapsed by more than 50%, falling from normal daily flows to just 57 recorded passages over three days, as shipping companies rerouted or anchored in place and Iran declared the waterway closed.
- The United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve — the emergency buffer that softened the blow of earlier strikes in February — is now nearly depleted, stripping the market of its most important shock absorber.
- Analysts at TD Securities and Commodity Context are openly warning that $100-per-barrel oil is 'quite possible' if physical supply shortages materialize, while the Trump administration insists military escorts will keep oil moving.
Oil climbed to its highest price in a month on Tuesday as US-Iran hostilities entered a third consecutive day, unraveling the fragile diplomatic understanding the two countries had reached in June. Brent crude rose 2 percent on the day to $84.91 a barrel — capping a nearly 10 percent surge from the previous session — as traders scrambled to reprice the risk embedded in every barrel moving through the Persian Gulf.
The immediate trigger was a cycle of escalation that began when US Central Command announced strikes targeting Iran's ability to threaten Strait of Hormuz shipping. Iran's Revolutionary Guard responded by attacking two oil tankers in the strait and launching missiles and drones at American military installations in Kuwait and Bahrain. The June memorandum of understanding, which had briefly calmed markets, was effectively dead.
What alarmed analysts most was not the fighting itself, but the disappearance of the safety net beneath it. The Trump administration had spent months drawing down the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to cushion earlier price shocks — including those that followed the first US-Israeli strikes on Iran in February. That buffer was now nearly gone. 'A violent repricing up cannot be discounted,' warned June Goh of Sparta Commodities in Singapore.
The Strait of Hormuz, normally handling around 130 vessel transits per day, recorded only 57 over the three days from Friday through Sunday — a drop of more than 50 percent. Iran declared the waterway closed; the US insisted it remained open and reported military-escorted passage of 8.5 million barrels on Monday. The competing claims did little to steady the market.
Analysts now speak openly of $100-per-barrel oil. Bart Melek of TD Securities called it 'quite possible' if physical shortages become real, while Rory Johnston of Commodity Context noted that the stock cushion which had kept markets patient through earlier crises was now largely spent. The diplomatic window had closed, and the market was left to calculate what comes next.
The price of oil climbed to its highest point in a month on Tuesday as fighting between the United States and Iran stretched into a third consecutive day, erasing the fragile calm that had briefly settled over one of the world's most critical shipping channels. Brent crude, the global standard for oil pricing, rose 2 percent that day alone, building on a nearly 10 percent jump from the day before. By early morning trading on Wednesday, September futures contracts were trading at $84.91 a barrel—a level not seen since mid-June.
The escalation came after months of relative stability. In June, Washington and Tehran had signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at de-escalating tensions, and oil prices had retreated accordingly. But that agreement now lay in ruins. On Monday, US Central Command announced it had launched strikes targeting Iran's capacity to threaten shipping and civilian targets in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded by attacking two oil tankers in the strait itself and firing missiles and drones at American military installations in Kuwait and Bahrain. The cycle of attack and counterattack sent traders scrambling to reassess the risk premium built into every barrel.
What made this round of fighting particularly unsettling to market analysts was the depletion of America's strategic cushion. For months, the Trump administration had been drawing down the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve—the government's emergency stockpile—to absorb price shocks and keep supplies flowing. That buffer had absorbed much of the impact when the US and Israel first struck Iran in late February. But now, after weeks of sustained withdrawals, that reserve was nearly exhausted. "Crude oil is fast losing its strategic petroleum reserve buffer, and a violent repricing up cannot be discounted," June Goh, a senior analyst at Sparta Commodities in Singapore, told Al Jazeera. Without that safety valve, the market had become far more vulnerable to supply disruptions.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 130 vessels passed daily before the February strikes, had become a ghost corridor. From Friday through Sunday, only 57 transits were recorded—a drop of more than 50 percent from the previous week, according to MarineTraffic, a ship-tracking platform. Shipping companies were routing around the danger or simply waiting. Iran had declared the waterway closed "until further notice." The Trump administration countered that the strait remained open and that the US military would ensure oil continued to flow, reporting that 8.5 million barrels had passed through on Monday alone with military escort.
Yet the numbers told a different story. Rory Johnston, founder of the oil research firm Commodity Context, noted that traffic had fallen back to—or below—the levels seen immediately before the June peace agreement. "The oil market has proven extremely patient through this crisis, in large part thanks to an ample stock cushion," Johnston said. "Unfortunately, much of that cushion has now been depleted, leaving us much more vulnerable to a rerun of March and April." Those months had seen the sharpest price spikes of the entire conflict.
Analysts were now openly discussing the possibility of oil reaching $100 a barrel. Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities in Toronto, said such a move was "quite possible" if evidence mounted that physical shortages were becoming real. The question was no longer whether prices would rise, but how far and how fast. The diplomatic window that had briefly opened in June had slammed shut, and the market was bracing for the consequences.
Citações Notáveis
Crude oil is fast losing its strategic petroleum reserve buffer, and a violent repricing up cannot be discounted until the market sees toned-down rhetoric from both parties.— June Goh, senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities
Traffic through Hormuz is grinding to a halt, back to – or even below – our immediate pre-MoU pace. The oil market has proven extremely patient through this crisis, in large part thanks to an ample stock cushion upon which we were able to draw to blunt the sharpness of the supply shock. Unfortunately, much of that cushion has now been depleted, leaving us much more vulnerable to a rerun of March and April.— Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does fighting between two countries thousands of miles away affect what I pay at the pump?
Because roughly a third of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. When that corridor becomes dangerous, ships avoid it, supply tightens, and prices everywhere go up.
But the US military is protecting the shipping lanes, right? So why are prices still rising?
The military can escort ships through, but it can't force them to go. Shipping companies are choosing to wait or reroute because the risk isn't worth it. And the real problem is that America's emergency oil stockpile—the thing that's supposed to absorb these shocks—is nearly empty.
How empty?
Empty enough that analysts are genuinely worried. For months, the government had been releasing oil from reserves to keep prices stable. That worked. But now there's almost nothing left to release, so the market has no shock absorber.
So what happens if this fighting continues?
Oil could hit $100 a barrel. We're at $85 now. That's a 15 percent jump from here, and it's not theoretical—analysts are saying it's quite possible if supply actually gets cut off.
And that affects regular people how?
Gas prices rise. Shipping costs rise. Everything that moves by truck or plane gets more expensive. It ripples through the entire economy.
Is there a way out of this?
Only if both sides step back from the fighting. The June peace agreement showed it was possible. But right now, neither Washington nor Tehran seems interested in talking.