There is no longer any security in the Strait of Hormuz
Along the ancient chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world's energy passes in fragile procession, Iran has chosen escalation over accommodation — striking oil facilities from the UAE to Iraq, threatening tankers, and declaring that no calm can return while American and Israeli forces remain in the Gulf. The consequences have rippled outward swiftly: crude benchmarks crossing $100 a barrel, American drivers paying their most at the pump in over two years, and Western governments caught between the imperatives of economic stability and the limits of their appetite for deeper war. History reminds us that energy corridors are never merely logistical — they are the pressure points where geopolitical will is tested and ordinary life is quietly transformed.
- Iran struck oil infrastructure across the UAE and Iraq and warned the Strait of Hormuz will not return to calm, sending Brent crude above $103 a barrel and US gas to its highest price since October 2023.
- The assassination of Iran's security chief by Israel — unconfirmed by Tehran — added a volatile new layer to an already combustible standoff, threatening to accelerate the cycle of retaliation.
- More than a dozen vessel attacks have now been recorded in the Persian Gulf since late February, and a tanker was struck near Fujairah just days ago, making the world's most critical energy corridor effectively a war zone.
- Western governments are fracturing under the pressure: Trump demands NATO partners act, but the EU has declined to expand its naval role and Britain insists it will not be drawn into the wider conflict.
- The IEA released 400 million barrels of emergency reserves to cushion markets, but its own director acknowledged the measure is temporary — only reopening the Strait can restore lasting stability.
Oil prices surged sharply on Tuesday as Iran intensified its assault on energy infrastructure across the Middle East and signaled that the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow passage through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and gas flows — would remain dangerous for the foreseeable future. Brent crude climbed 2.7 percent to around $103 a barrel, while American drivers faced a nationwide average of $3.79 per gallon, the highest since October 2023.
The escalation followed Israel's announcement that it had killed Ali Larijani, Iran's security chief — a claim Tehran had not confirmed. Iran's parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf delivered a stark televised warning: the Strait could not return to normalcy while US and Israeli forces remained in the Persian Gulf. "There is no longer any security," he said.
The Iranian strikes were both widespread and concrete. The UAE suspended operations at its Shah natural gas field after a drone strike, a fire broke out at the Emirati port of Fujairah following a separate attack, and an Iraqi oil field was also hit. A tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile near Fujairah, adding to more than a dozen vessel incidents documented since US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28. Tuesday's spike reversed a brief Monday rally, when traders had hoped the Strait might reopen — optimism that quickly evaporated. Crude now sits roughly 40 percent above pre-conflict levels.
Western governments find themselves in an uncomfortable position. President Trump has urged NATO allies to help restore passage through the Strait, warning of a "very bad future" for the alliance if they do not act. But Europe is pulling back: the EU declined to expand its naval operations in the region, with chief diplomat Kaja Kallas stating plainly that "this is not Europe's war." Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the UK was working on a plan to ease the crisis but would not be drawn into the broader conflict.
The International Energy Agency announced a release of 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles — a historic intervention — but its executive director Fatih Birol was candid about its limits. Reserves can buy time, he said, but "the single most important thing for a return to stable flows of oil and natural gas is a resumption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz." No amount of stockpile management, it turns out, can substitute for the world's most vital shipping lane actually being open.
Oil prices climbed sharply on Tuesday as Iran escalated its campaign against energy infrastructure across the Middle East and signaled that the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world's most critical shipping lanes—would remain a danger zone for the foreseeable future. The moves sent ripples through global markets and American gas pumps, where prices reached their highest point in more than two years.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 2.7 percent to around $103 a barrel, though it had climbed even higher earlier in the trading day before settling. West Texas Intermediate, the US standard, gained 3 percent to approximately $96 a barrel. At gas stations across America, the nationwide average price for a gallon of regular gasoline jumped seven cents to $3.79—the highest mark since October 2023, according to the American Automobile Association. The moves reflected genuine anxiety about supply disruptions in a region that ordinarily channels roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas.
The escalation came as Israel announced it had killed Ali Larijani, Iran's security chief, on Monday night—a claim Iran had not yet confirmed. More immediately, Iran's parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf delivered a televised warning that the Strait of Hormuz could not return to its former state of relative calm. "There is no longer any security," he said, attributing the instability to the American and Israeli military presence in the Persian Gulf. He also asserted that US military force could not eliminate Iran's weapons capabilities.
The Iranian attacks themselves were concrete and widespread. The United Arab Emirates halted operations at its Shah natural gas field near Abu Dhabi following a drone strike. A separate drone attack ignited a fire at Fujairah, a major Emirati oil port. An Iraqi oil field also came under assault. Beyond these strikes on fixed infrastructure, a tanker was hit by an unidentified projectile late Monday near Fujairah, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre, which has now documented more than a dozen vessel attacks in the Persian Gulf and near the Strait since US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28.
The Tuesday spike reversed momentum from the previous trading session. On Monday, Brent crude had closed 2.8 percent lower as traders briefly entertained hopes that the Strait might reopen and oil flows resume. That optimism proved premature. Crude prices now sit roughly 40 percent higher than they were before the US-Israeli campaign prompted Iran to effectively choke off the waterway.
Western governments are caught between the need to stabilize energy markets and reluctance to deepen their involvement in the conflict. President Trump has pressed allies to help restore passage through the Strait, warning that NATO faces a "very bad future" if countries do not step up. But European leaders are wary. The European Union decided against expanding its naval operations in the Middle East following a meeting of foreign ministers on Monday. Kaja Kallas, the EU's chief diplomat, told journalists that "Europe has no interest in an open-ended war" and that "this is not Europe's war," though she acknowledged that European interests are directly threatened. Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer said his country was working with allies on a plan to restore navigation and ease economic damage, but emphasized that the United Kingdom would not be drawn into the wider conflict.
To buy time, the International Energy Agency announced it would release 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves to global markets this week, with the capacity to release more if conditions worsen. The agency's executive director, Fatih Birol, cautioned that while these reserves provide a temporary cushion, they are not a permanent fix. "The single most important thing for a return to stable flows of oil and natural gas is a resumption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz," he said. Even after the historic release, emergency supplies in IEA member countries would decline by only about 20 percent, leaving substantial reserves intact—but also underscoring that no amount of stockpile management can substitute for actual shipping through the world's most vital energy corridor.
Citações Notáveis
The Strait of Hormuz cannot be the same as before and return to its previous conditions. There is no longer any security.— Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Iranian parliamentary speaker
While our stock release can provide a buffer for now, it is not a lasting solution. The single most important thing for a return to stable flows of oil and natural gas is a resumption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz.— Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency executive director
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does what happens in the Strait of Hormuz matter so much to someone filling up a car in Ohio?
Because one-fifth of global oil passes through that narrow waterway. When Iran threatens it, the entire world's energy supply tightens. Tighter supply means higher prices everywhere, instantly.
But the US and Europe have emergency oil reserves. Can't they just use those?
They can, and they are—the IEA is releasing 400 million barrels. But reserves are a buffer, not a solution. They'll run down eventually. The real answer is getting ships moving through the Strait again, and right now, Iran is making that impossible.
What does Iran actually gain by attacking oil infrastructure and threatening shipping?
Leverage. Every attack raises the cost of the conflict for the West and its allies. It's a way of saying: you can strike us, but we can hurt your economy in return. The Strait is their most powerful weapon.
Why won't Europe help the US reopen it?
They're afraid of being pulled into a wider war. They have their own economies to protect, and they see this as an American-Israeli conflict, not a European one. They want the benefits of stable oil prices without the military risk.
Is there any scenario where this gets resolved quickly?
Only if Iran and the US-Israeli coalition reach some kind of understanding. Right now, both sides are escalating. Iran kills infrastructure, Israel kills Iranian officials, and the cycle continues. The Strait stays closed, prices stay high, and everyone else pays the bill.