More than one in four borrowers cannot keep current on their obligations
En Argentina, más de uno de cada cuatro deudores arrastra obligaciones vencidas hace al menos noventa días, una cifra que transforma el crédito de palanca del crecimiento en lastre colectivo. El avance de la morosidad en bancos tradicionales y, con mayor intensidad, en fintechs como Mercado Libre y Tarjeta Naranja, revela que el alivio financiero prometido a los hogares no llegó a tiempo para sostener el impulso económico. Cuando el incumplimiento deja de ser excepción y se vuelve patrón, la confianza que sostiene cualquier sistema de crédito comienza a erosionarse desde adentro.
- La morosidad en préstamos familiares trepó al 12% en bancos y al 31,5% en entidades no financieras durante abril, marcando una aceleración que los datos de meses anteriores ya anticipaban.
- Más de la cuarta parte de todos los deudores del sistema —bancos, fintechs y billeteras digitales incluidos— carga deuda en situación irregular, lo que pone en jaque la narrativa oficial de recuperación crediticia.
- El riesgo creciente de impago frena la baja de tasas en préstamos al consumo, encareciendo el crédito justo cuando los hogares más lo necesitan para sostener su capacidad de gasto.
- El Banco Central descartó medidas de alivio con fondos públicos para deudores individuales, dejando a las familias en mora sin red de contención institucional.
- La consultora 1816 proyecta que el crédito hogareño no podrá actuar como motor de crecimiento al menos hasta después de las elecciones del año próximo, contradiciendo el optimismo oficial.
Los números de abril dibujaron un cuadro difícil para las familias argentinas endeudadas. La morosidad en bancos subió del 11,5% al 12%, pero el dato más inquietante llegó desde las entidades no financieras: las fintechs y prestamistas digitales registraron un 31,5% de cartera irregular, con Mercado Libre y Tarjeta Naranja concentrando más de la mitad de ese segmento. Estas plataformas no son actores menores; representan el 17% del crédito privado total del país.
La consultora 1816, procesando datos del Banco Central, calculó que el 26,7% de todos los deudores del sistema —sin importar si tomaron el préstamo en un banco, una app o una billetera virtual— acumula al menos noventa días de atraso. Cuando más de uno de cada cuatro no puede cumplir, el crédito pierde su función dinamizadora y se convierte en una carga que pesa sobre el conjunto.
El gobierno había apostado al crédito al consumo como uno de los motores de la reactivación, y durante la segunda mitad de 2024 esa apuesta tuvo cierto sustento. Pero el ciclo se está revirtiendo: la morosidad alta desalienta a los bancos a bajar tasas, las tasas altas desincentivan el endeudamiento, y menos préstamos significan menos consumo y menos actividad. La lógica es circular y no conduce a un lugar favorable.
El Banco Central había señalado semanas atrás que el comportamiento de pago estaba mejorando. Los datos de abril no lo confirman. Frente a la pregunta por medidas de alivio, la respuesta oficial fue categórica: no habrá fondos públicos para resolver situaciones individuales. Las familias en mora deberán encontrar su propio camino.
1816 fue directa en su conclusión: al menos hasta las elecciones del año que viene, el crédito hogareño difícilmente pueda ser un pilar del crecimiento económico. El daño acumulado es demasiado amplio, y cuando la irregularidad se normaliza, tanto los deudores como los prestamistas cambian su conducta. Lo que debía impulsar la economía amenaza ahora con convertirse en uno de sus frenos.
The numbers tell a story of households drowning. In April, the share of family borrowers falling behind on their debts climbed to 12% in traditional banks—a jump from 11.5% the month before. But the real alarm lives elsewhere. At the fintechs and other non-bank lenders, delinquency hit 31.5%, up from 30.7% in March. These are not marginal players. Mercado Libre and Tarjeta Naranja alone account for more than half of all lending through non-financial entities, which collectively represent 17% of all private sector credit in the country.
The consultancy 1816, working from Central Bank data, arrived at a figure that captures the scale of the problem: 26.7% of everyone who borrowed money—from a bank, a fintech, a digital wallet, anywhere in the system—is carrying debt in irregular status. That means at least 90 days past due. It is a number that does not leave room for optimism. When more than one in four borrowers cannot keep current on their obligations, credit stops being a tool for growth. It becomes a weight.
The government had been counting on household lending to drive economic activity. In the second half of 2024 and into early 2025, consumer credit had indeed been a motor. But that engine is stalling. The rising delinquency makes it harder for banks to lower interest rates on consumer loans—why would they, when default risk is climbing? And if rates stay high, fewer people borrow. Fewer people borrow, less gets spent. Less gets spent, the economy slows. The logic is simple and grim.
The Central Bank had suggested, just weeks earlier, that banks were already seeing improvements in repayment behavior. The data does not support this. Instead, the trend is moving in the opposite direction. Month after month, the share of irregular debt grows. The consultancy notes that their forecasting method has proven accurate in predicting the Central Bank's own official figures for January, February, and March. They are not guessing. They are reading the same underlying data.
When asked about relief measures—subsidies, payment deferrals, any kind of public support for struggling households—the Central Bank was clear: no public funds would be deployed to solve individual cases. The message was blunt. Families facing delinquency would have to work it out themselves. This stance leaves borrowers with few options. Those already behind have limited ability to catch up. Those not yet behind face the knowledge that if they slip, help will not come.
The 1816 consultancy drew a conclusion that extends beyond April's numbers. At least until next year's elections, they said, household credit is unlikely to be a significant engine of economic growth. The damage is already done. Too many people are too far behind. The psychology of borrowing shifts when delinquency becomes normal. People stop asking for loans. Banks stop offering them. The credit system, which had been loosening, begins to tighten again. What was supposed to lift the economy now threatens to drag it down.
Citas Notables
At least until next year's elections, household credit is unlikely to be a significant engine of economic growth— 1816 consultancy analysis
The Central Bank stated it would not deploy public funds to solve individual cases of household debt distress— Central Bank of Argentina
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does the fintech delinquency rate sit so much higher than the banks—31.5% versus 12%?
The fintechs lend to people the banks won't touch. They're faster, looser with credit standards, and they reach borrowers with no credit history or spotty records. When the economy tightens, those borrowers are first to default.
So the fintechs are taking on riskier customers by design?
Not by design, exactly. By business model. They compete on speed and accessibility. That means less vetting, smaller loans, higher rates. When people can't pay, there's nowhere to hide.
The Central Bank said banks were improving. Why doesn't the data show that?
Because the Central Bank was reading the same data and seeing what it wanted to see. Or hoping. The trend has been consistently upward for months. There's no inflection point, no moment where it turns around.
What happens to people who are 90 days behind?
They're locked out. No new credit. Their debt gets reported. Collection calls start. For many, it's a spiral—they needed the loan because they were already struggling, and now they're worse off.
Can they negotiate with the lenders?
Some can. But when 31.5% of fintech borrowers are behind, the lenders aren't in a negotiating mood. They're in survival mode. The system is breaking.