The stock may rise at first, but selling pressure will mount when lockups expire.
As SpaceX prepares to enter public markets, Morningstar has placed its own careful measure against the exuberance of private capital, valuing the company at $780 billion — nearly half the $1.5 trillion figure that emerged after its acquisition of xAI. The gap is not merely arithmetic; it is a philosophical divide between those who price a company on what it might become and those who insist on what it can reliably demonstrate. SpaceX has rewritten the economics of space access and built a profitable satellite network, but it has also inherited an AI division whose worth remains, in the analyst's view, more hope than certainty.
- A 48% valuation gap between Morningstar's $780B estimate and SpaceX's $1.5T private price tag signals deep disagreement about what the xAI acquisition actually bought.
- The AI division — encompassing Grok, the X social network, and the Colossus data center — carries a worst-case scenario of over $80 billion in value destruction, according to Morningstar's own modeling.
- Meanwhile, the core business is undeniably formidable: SpaceX executed 83% of all mass sent to orbit in 2025 and slashed per-kilogram launch costs by 95%, advantages no competitor can easily replicate.
- Starlink's $11.3 billion in 2025 revenue, growing at 50% annually with 39% operating margins, gives investors a concrete, profitable anchor amid the uncertainty surrounding AI.
- The IPO is expected to open strong — backed by major banks and potentially joining the NASDAQ 100 within weeks — but Morningstar warns the real test arrives when employee and investor lockup periods expire and selling pressure mounts.
Morningstar has initiated coverage of SpaceX with a $780 billion valuation, placing it 48 percent below the $1.5 trillion figure the company carried after acquiring AI lab xAI in early 2026. The distance between those two numbers is a measure of institutional skepticism — not about SpaceX's rockets or satellites, but about what it paid for, and why.
The launch business itself is difficult to argue with. SpaceX conducted more than half of all orbital launches globally in 2025 and was responsible for 83 percent of the total mass humanity sent into space that year. It has reduced the cost of reaching orbit to less than five percent of what traditional systems charge per kilogram — a transformation so fundamental it has altered the entire industry's economics. Morningstar treats this as a durable advantage, built on scale and operational mastery rather than legal protection.
Starlink reinforces the case. The satellite internet service generated $11.3 billion in revenue last year, growing at 50 percent annually with operating margins of 39 percent — numbers that are unusual for a connectivity business and that have made it the company's primary source of cash.
The xAI acquisition is where Morningstar's confidence breaks down. The firm does not regard Grok as a leading AI model, and it observes that the AI industry offers little in the way of switching costs or defensible moats. In its most pessimistic scenario, the AI division destroys more than $80 billion in value. That is not a marginal concern — it is the central question the market will have to answer.
The IPO itself is likely to open well. A small initial float, strong bank backing, and probable inclusion in the NASDAQ 100 within weeks of listing should support early prices. But when lockup periods expire and insiders are free to sell, the market will face a more honest reckoning — one that asks whether SpaceX's revolutionary core businesses justify a valuation that also prices in an AI future that remains, for now, unproven.
Morningstar has put a number on SpaceX's worth, and it is substantially smaller than what private investors have been willing to pay. The research firm valued the company at $780 billion as it initiates coverage ahead of the company's public debut—a figure that sits 48 percent below the $1.5 trillion price tag attached to SpaceX after it acquired the artificial intelligence lab xAI in early 2026. The gap between these two numbers tells a story about confidence and doubt, about what the market believes SpaceX can do and what one careful analyst thinks it actually will.
The foundation of SpaceX's business is solid. In 2025, the company launched 165 rockets—more than half of all orbital launches globally—and sent 83 percent of the total mass that humanity placed into orbit that year. This dominance has allowed SpaceX to compress costs in a way its competitors cannot match. The company now moves cargo to space for less than five percent of what traditional launch systems charge per kilogram, a reduction so steep it has essentially rewritten the economics of space access. Morningstar acknowledges this as a genuine competitive advantage, one rooted not in patents or regulatory protection but in operational excellence and scale.
Starlink, the satellite internet business, is where the cash actually flows. Last year it generated $11.3 billion in revenue, growing at 50 percent annually, with an operating margin of 39 percent. For a connectivity business, these numbers are remarkable. Starlink has become the company's primary engine for generating cash, the part of SpaceX that investors can point to and understand. It is profitable, it is growing, and it serves a real market need.
But SpaceX is no longer just a launch and connectivity company. The xAI acquisition brought with it the Grok language model, the social network X, and a data center called Colossus—all for $250 billion. This is where Morningstar's confidence falters. The firm does not view Grok as a leading artificial intelligence laboratory. It notes that Anthropic has risen rapidly through 2026, suggesting that the AI industry has low switching costs and no clear moat. When Morningstar modeled three different scenarios for how this division might perform, the worst case showed value destruction exceeding $80 billion. That is not a rounding error. That is the difference between a sound business and a speculative bet.
The valuation gap reflects this uncertainty. Morningstar is saying: the launch business is real, Starlink is real, but we do not know what the AI division is worth, and we suspect the private market has priced it too optimistically. At $780 billion, SpaceX would trade at a discount to its private valuation, but Morningstar still believes the stock will likely be overpriced when it begins trading.
There is a timing element to watch. The initial public offering will probably succeed. The float will be small, the major investment banks are backing it, and SpaceX could be added to the NASDAQ 100 within three weeks of listing. All of this should support the stock price in the early going. But when the lockup periods expire—when employees and early investors are finally allowed to sell their shares—the dynamics will shift. That is when the market will have to reckon with whether $780 billion, or $1.5 trillion, or something in between, is the right price for a company that is genuinely revolutionary in some of its businesses and genuinely uncertain in others.
Citações Notáveis
We do not view Grok as one of the leading AI laboratories today— Morningstar
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does Morningstar think the AI division is worth so much less than the market does?
Because they cannot see a clear path to Grok becoming a leading AI system. The model exists, but so do others—better funded ones, arguably better executed ones. In a field with low switching costs, being second or third is a precarious position.
But SpaceX has $11 billion in Starlink revenue growing at 50 percent. Doesn't that anchor the valuation?
It does, and Morningstar acknowledges it. But $11 billion, even at 39 percent margins, doesn't justify a $1.5 trillion company valuation on its own. You need the AI division to work for that math to hold.
So the private investors who valued it at $1.5 trillion—they're betting on Grok?
They're betting on Grok, on X's potential, on Colossus as a data center play. They're betting that Elon Musk can make it work. Morningstar is saying: we see the bet, we respect the launch business, but we're not convinced on AI.
Will the stock go up or down on day one?
Probably up. The float is small, the banks are all in, and there's momentum. But that's not the same as the valuation being right. Morningstar is warning that the real test comes later, when lockups expire and insiders can sell.
What does 48 percent below private valuation actually mean for an investor?
It means Morningstar thinks the private market overpaid for the xAI assets. It means there's risk baked into the current price. Whether that risk is worth taking depends on whether you believe in the AI division the way the private investors do.