Supply chains on the brink of the most severe disruption since COVID
As war between the United States, Israel, and Iran enters its third week, the United Nations warns that the suffering will not remain contained within the region. The mechanics of modern conflict — disrupted shipping lanes, spiking fuel costs, and a closed Strait of Hormuz — are quietly dismantling the food systems that sustain the world's most vulnerable populations. By June, the World Food Programme projects that 45 million additional people could slip into acute hunger, a reminder that in an interconnected world, no war is truly local.
- The Strait of Hormuz, through which a quarter of the world's fertilizer normally flows, is effectively closed — and sub-Saharan Africa is entering its planting season with nothing in the pipeline.
- Ships rerouting around the conflict zone are driving up fuel and food costs, forcing the WFP to cut rations for famine victims in Sudan and reach only one in four malnourished children in Afghanistan.
- In Lebanon, over one million people — nearly a fifth of the population — have been displaced, with 70 percent scattered beyond the reach of formal shelters or aid workers.
- The UN human rights office has warned that Israel's expanding evacuation orders may constitute forced displacement under international humanitarian law, as entire residential buildings and medical workers become casualties.
- UN Secretary-General Guterres has repeatedly demanded a ceasefire, but with the conflict now in its third week, the window to prevent a June hunger catastrophe is narrowing fast.
At the United Nations, officials are sounding an alarm that reaches far beyond the Middle East. The escalating conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran threatens to push 45 million people into acute hunger by June, according to the World Food Programme — a disruption the agency calls the worst since COVID upended global systems in 2020.
The mechanics are brutal in their simplicity. Ships are taking longer routes around the conflict zone, driving up costs. Fuel prices have spiked, meaning the WFP can buy less food and offer smaller cash assistance to people already on the edge. Rations for famine victims in Sudan have already been cut. In Afghanistan, where malnutrition is the worst in the world, the agency can only reach one in four severely malnourished children.
The crisis has also reached into agriculture. A quarter of the world's fertilizer supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz — now effectively closed. Sub-Saharan Africa is heading into its planting season without access to the inputs it needs. For import-dependent countries across Africa and Asia, the combination of higher food prices, higher fuel costs, and fertilizer scarcity amounts to a perfect storm.
In Lebanon, the human toll is immediate. More than one million people — nearly a fifth of the entire population — have been forced from their homes by Israeli airstrikes and evacuation orders. Around 132,700 are sheltering in formal facilities, but 70 percent of the displaced are scattered across the landscape, nearly impossible for aid workers to reach. The air bridge that once brought supplies from Gulf states has vanished entirely.
The elderly and those too frightened to leave remain behind in increasingly inaccessible villages. The UN human rights office has warned that Israel's expanding evacuation orders may constitute forced displacement, prohibited under international humanitarian law. Entire residential buildings have been destroyed with families inside. At least 16 medical workers have been killed in recent days.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has repeatedly demanded the war stop, but the conflict has now entered its third week. The longer it continues, the wider the circle of suffering — from families fleeing Lebanon, to farmers in Africa waiting for fertilizer that may never arrive, to malnourished children in Afghanistan for whom aid is already rationed to one in four.
At the United Nations, officials are sounding an alarm that reaches far beyond the Middle East. The escalating conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran threatens to create a humanitarian catastrophe of unprecedented scale—one that could push 45 million people into acute hunger by June if the fighting continues, according to the World Food Programme. The disruption, they warn, would be the worst since COVID upended global systems in 2020.
The mechanics of the crisis are straightforward and brutal. Ships carrying food and fuel are taking longer routes around the conflict zone, driving up costs. Fuel prices have spiked, which means the WFP can buy less food with the same money and provide smaller cash assistance to people already living on the edge. The agency has already begun cutting food rations for famine victims in Sudan. In Afghanistan, where malnutrition rates are the worst in the world, the organization can only reach one in four severely malnourished children. Carl Skau, the WFP's deputy executive director, told reporters in Geneva that supply chains are "on the brink of the most severe disruption since COVID and the Ukraine war back in 2022."
The crisis extends into agriculture itself. A quarter of the world's fertilizer supply normally flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint now essentially closed by the conflict. Sub-Saharan Africa is heading into its planting season with no access to the inputs it needs. The combination of higher food prices, higher fuel costs, and fertilizer scarcity means that import-dependent countries across Africa and Asia face a perfect storm. Families in these regions, already stretched thin, will be priced out of basic staples. The math is grim: if the conflict persists through June, an additional 45 million people will slip into acute hunger.
In Lebanon, the human toll is immediate and visible. More than one million people—nearly a fifth of the entire population—have been forced from their homes. Israeli airstrikes and evacuation orders have emptied southern Lebanon, Beirut's southern suburbs, and parts of the Bekaa Valley. About 132,700 people are sheltering in roughly 622 facilities, but 70 percent of the displaced are not in shelters at all, scattered across the landscape in ways that make them nearly impossible for aid workers to reach. Imran Riza, the UN's top humanitarian official in Lebanon, explained that the air bridge that once brought supplies from Gulf states—Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait—has vanished. "None of that is happening," he said.
The elderly and those too frightened to abandon their homes remain behind, trapped in villages that are increasingly difficult to access. Some refuse to leave because they cannot bear to lose their homes and villages. Others are physically unable to move. These are the people left in the gaps between official aid and official acknowledgment. Meanwhile, the UN human rights office has warned that Israel's expanding evacuation orders may constitute forced displacement, prohibited under international humanitarian law. Entire residential buildings in dense urban areas have been destroyed, with families killed together. At least 16 medical workers have been killed in recent days. Displaced people living in tents along Beirut's waterfront have themselves been struck by airstrikes.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has demanded repeatedly that the war stop. He has called for implementation of Security Council resolutions, including one demanding an end to Iranian attacks on neighboring states. But the conflict has now entered its third week, sparked by Israeli and US strikes on Iran and retaliatory attacks by Tehran and allied groups. The longer it continues, the wider the circle of suffering expands—from the families fleeing Lebanon to the subsistence farmers in Africa waiting for fertilizer that may never arrive, to the malnourished children in Afghanistan for whom aid is already rationed to one in four.
Citações Notáveis
Our supply chains may really be on the brink of the most severe disruption since COVID and the Ukraine war back in 2022.— Carl Skau, WFP Deputy Executive Director
If the Middle East conflict continues through June, an additional 45 million people could be pushed into acute hunger by price rises.— Carl Skau, WFP Deputy Executive Director
We're talking about almost 20 percent of the people living in Lebanon having been displaced—and it's going to continue.— Imran Riza, UN humanitarian official in Lebanon
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
When you say 45 million people could face acute hunger, what does that actually mean for a family?
It means a mother choosing between feeding her children and paying rent. It means smaller portions, fewer meals. Acute hunger isn't just discomfort—it's the threshold where malnutrition becomes a medical crisis, where children stop growing, where immune systems fail.
But these are people far from the Middle East. How does a war in Iran reach a farmer in sub-Saharan Africa?
Through the invisible threads of global supply. That farmer needs fertilizer shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. That fertilizer isn't moving. Meanwhile, food prices everywhere are climbing because shipping costs have doubled. A family in Kenya or Mali that was already spending 60 percent of their income on food now can't afford it at all.
Why can't the UN just send more aid to Lebanon?
Because the routes are closed. The planes aren't flying. The ships are taking weeks instead of days. And the money that could buy food buys less of it because fuel costs have tripled. The WFP is already rationing in Sudan, already reaching only one in four malnourished children in Afghanistan. There's no surplus to redirect.
What about the people who won't leave their homes in Lebanon?
They're trapped by fear and attachment. An elderly person can't physically flee. A family doesn't want to lose everything they own. But staying means no aid reaches them, no shelter, no protection. The UN can see them but can't help them.
Is there a scenario where this gets better?
Only if the fighting stops before June. Every week it continues, the supply chains deteriorate further, prices climb higher, and more people cross the line into acute hunger. The window is closing.