Argentina faces 41% rise in melanoma cases by 2045 as experts urge year-round sun protection

Melanoma mortality rates have tripled globally over four decades; early detection is critical as advanced cases are significantly more difficult to treat.
Prevention stops being seasonal and becomes a sustained habit
A dermatologist's assessment of what it will take to reverse Argentina's rising melanoma trend.

Melanoma diagnoses in Argentina could increase 41% by 2045, with UV exposure and cultural attitudes toward tanned skin driving the trend. Early detection using the ABCDE rule significantly improves survival rates, yet only half of Gen Z undergoes annual dermatological screening.

  • Argentina records 1,600+ melanoma cases annually; projections show 2,400+ by 2045 (41% increase)
  • Only 33% of women and 20% of men apply sunscreen daily despite higher overall usage rates
  • Early detection using ABCDE rule offers high cure rates; advanced cases are far more difficult to treat
  • Argentina's Vaccimel vaccine showed 70% cure rate in clinical trials for early-stage high-risk patients
  • Over 50% of Generation Z did not undergo dermatological screening in the past year

Argentina faces a melanoma crisis with 1,600+ annual cases projected to exceed 2,400 by 2045. Experts emphasize early detection and year-round sun protection as critical prevention strategies.

Argentina is tracking toward a melanoma crisis. The country currently diagnoses more than 1,600 cases of the disease each year, but projections from the International Agency for Research on Cancer suggest that number will climb to over 2,400 by 2045—a 41 percent increase that reflects a troubling global pattern. Melanoma, though less common than other skin cancers, is the deadliest. It spreads quickly and accounts for the vast majority of skin cancer deaths, which is why May 23rd, designated as World Melanoma Day, exists to push prevention and early detection into public conversation.

Ultraviolet radiation remains the primary culprit. But the problem runs deeper than sun exposure alone. Argentina's climate is warming, summers are stretching longer, and a cultural association between tanned skin and health or beauty persists—all factors that amplify risk. Dr. Graciela Manzur, who heads dermatology at Hospital de Clínicas, notes that fair-skinned people face higher risk, yet melanoma does not discriminate by complexion. Darker-skinned individuals develop it too, sometimes in areas rarely touched by sun. Age and gender patterns shift: women under 50 show higher rates, while men dominate after that threshold, likely because of different sun exposure habits.

The data on protection is sobering. According to the Argentine Society of Dermatology, 72 percent of women and 53 percent of men use sunscreen at all. But only 33 percent of women and 20 percent of men apply it daily. Protection drops sharply when temperatures fall, a seasonal lapse that dermatologists say undermines the entire effort. The disease does not take winter off.

Early detection changes everything. When caught in initial stages, melanoma offers high cure rates. Advanced cases become far harder to treat. Dr. Leisa Molinari, a preventive dermatology specialist, emphasizes that self-examination remains one of the most powerful tools available. The ABCDE rule—asymmetry, irregular borders, uneven color, diameter larger than 6 millimeters, and evolution over time—gives people a framework to spot trouble. A new mole or one that shifts shape, size, or shade warrants a doctor's eye.

Prevention centers on comprehensive photoprotection: proper clothing, hats, sunglasses blocking 99 percent of UVA and UVB rays, and seeking shade. Sunscreen with SPF 50 or higher should be applied year-round, half an hour before sun exposure, in sufficient quantity on dry skin. The Skin Cancer Foundation reports that consistent sunscreen use can cut melanoma risk by 50 percent. Newer oral photoprotection supplements—made from plants, vitamins, antioxidants, and polyphenols—have emerged to reinforce skin defenses, though they complement rather than replace topical protection. Self-tanning products and tanning beds warrant caution; they do not all offer UV protection, and a tan itself signals DNA damage, not health. Yet 28 percent of young people prioritize tanning over prevention.

Treatment has advanced. Targeted therapies for patients with BRAF and MEK mutations, applied after surgery, have improved outcomes and reduced side effects. In 2024, the FDA approved an adoptive cell therapy for advanced melanoma resistant to other treatments. Argentina's Dr. José Mordoh and his CONICET team developed Vaccimel, a therapeutic vaccine for early-stage patients at high risk of recurrence, which showed a 70 percent cure rate in clinical trials by stimulating the immune system to attack tumor cells. Artificial intelligence is beginning to assist diagnosis, with some algorithms outperforming experienced dermatologists in analyzing clinical images, though they do not replace professional judgment.

Yet prevention remains paramount. More than half of Generation Z did not see a dermatologist for screening in the past year. A 2024 community screening campaign in the United States identified over 1,000 suspicious lesions and 86 melanomas in free checks—each early diagnosis a chance at cure. The knowledge gap is wide: 52 percent of young people are unaware of at least one risk tied to sunburn, and 32 percent fail basic tests on sun protection. Molinari's closing thought captures the challenge: melanoma can be prevented, detected, and treated with increasingly effective tools, but real change happens when prevention stops being a seasonal reaction and becomes a sustained habit. That shift, more than any therapy, will determine whether Argentina bends the curve.

Melanoma can be prevented, detected, and treated with increasingly effective tools, but real change happens when prevention stops being a seasonal reaction and becomes a sustained habit.
— Dr. Leisa Molinari, preventive dermatology specialist
Looking at the skin in time remains one of the most powerful tools we have.
— Dr. Leisa Molinari
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Inventor

Why is melanoma rising so sharply in Argentina specifically? Is it just the sun?

Model

It's the sun, but not only the sun. The climate is warming, summers last longer, and there's this deep cultural belief that a tan means you're healthy or attractive. That belief matters more than people realize—it shapes behavior.

Inventor

So it's not just biology, it's culture.

Model

Exactly. You can have perfect UV protection available, but if people think bronzed skin is beautiful, they'll take the risk. That's why dermatologists keep saying prevention has to become a habit, not a seasonal thing.

Inventor

The numbers show sunscreen use is low. Why don't people just apply it?

Model

Partly habit, partly inconvenience. But also—and this is crucial—people stop protecting themselves in winter. They think the danger passes with the season. It doesn't. The sun still damages skin in May, in June, in July.

Inventor

What about the new treatments? Vaccimel sounds promising.

Model

It is. A 70 percent cure rate in early-stage patients is significant. But here's the thing: all these therapies only matter if you catch it early. If you wait until it's advanced, even the best treatment becomes a long fight. Prevention and early detection are still the real game-changers.

Inventor

So the vaccine doesn't replace prevention.

Model

No. Nothing replaces prevention. The vaccine is a safety net for people who've already had melanoma. The real victory is the person who never gets it in the first place, or the one who finds it at stage one because they knew what to look for.

Inventor

What would actually change behavior at scale?

Model

That's the hard question. You need people to see dermatologists regularly, to do monthly self-checks, to wear protection year-round without thinking about it. Right now, more than half of young people skip annual screening. Until that shifts, the numbers will keep climbing.

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